FICO at a glance
The past year
Chart−59.5% $720.17, close Nov 13
- From the highest close
- −61.0%
- Vs the 200-day average
- −33.4%
Short interest
History2.5M shares
- Of shares outstanding
- 11.8%
- Since the last report
- +4.3%
- Days to cover
- 3.1 days
- Settled
- Oct 30, 2026
Congress and officials
Trades2 trades, 90 days
- Buys / sells
- 0 / 2
- Filers
- 1
Insider buying, 7 days
FilingsNone filed this week
- Form 4s filed
- Nov 8 – Nov 14
Top investors
Funds2 of 37 funds hold it
- Chuck Akre
- 5.0%
- Terry Smith
- 0.2%
- Latest 13F filings
- 2 added · 0 cut
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
FICO price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
FICO’s score franchise remains embedded enough in lender and mortgage-market workflows that price and usage gains continue to convert into revenue rather than triggering broad substitution.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual revenue increased to $1.991 billion in FY2025 from $1.718 billion in FY2024 and $1.378 billion in FY2022. If the score standard holds, FICO can keep compounding with limited capital; if substitution becomes credible, the highest-quality part of the franchise is impaired.
Watch: FHFA, Fannie Mae, or Freddie Mac implementation choices make VantageScore 4.0 or other models practical substitutes for FICO in mortgage origination.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual revenue increased to $1.991 billion in FY2025 from $1.718 billion in FY2024 and $1.378 billion in FY2022.
Open source ↗FICO’s analytics IP and software delivery model keep incremental revenue highly profitable because customers are paying for standardized risk intelligence rather than labor-intensive customization.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual operating income was $924.9 million in FY2025, up from $733.6 million in FY2024 and $542.4 million in FY2022. This is what turns franchise strength into owner earnings; if delivery becomes services-heavy or price competition rises, growth would be much less valuable.
Watch: Large lenders require bespoke implementations, indemnities, or service commitments that make deployments more labor-intensive.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating income was $924.9 million in FY2025, up from $733.6 million in FY2024 and $542.4 million in FY2022.
Open source ↗FICO’s broader decisioning and analytics software remains important enough to diversify the business beyond a single mortgage-score pricing lever.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual gross profit was $1.637 billion in FY2025, up from $1.369 billion in FY2024 and $1.075 billion in FY2022. A broader analytics platform would make the franchise more durable; if customers view FICO mainly as an expensive score vendor, regulatory and substitution risk matters more.
Watch: Banks standardize fraud, decisioning, and customer-management systems on Experian, TransUnion, Equifax, SAS, NICE Actimize, or internal machine-learning platforms.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual gross profit was $1.637 billion in FY2025, up from $1.369 billion in FY2024 and $1.075 billion in FY2022.
Open source ↗FICO’s asset-light economics generate enough operating cash flow to fund shareholder returns and per-share compounding without needing heavy reinvestment.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating cash flow was $778.8 million in FY2025 versus GAAP net income of $651.9 million. The investment case depends on cash conversion, not accounting growth alone; if cash flow weakens, buybacks and debt tolerance become much less attractive.
Watch: Customers push for slower payment terms, usage-based concessions, or contract structures that reduce cash conversion.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating cash flow was $778.8 million in FY2025 versus GAAP net income of $651.9 million.
Open source ↗The same capital allocation that boosts per-share value also raises fragility because FICO carries substantial liabilities and negative book equity, leaving less room if the franchise stumbles.HoldingMateriality: Medium
GAAP liabilities were $3.614 billion at FY2025 year-end, up from $2.681 billion at FY2024 year-end. Leverage can amplify equity returns while the moat holds, but it can also force a change in buybacks or investment if cash flows are pressured.
Watch: A credit-score pricing shock reduces cash flow while debt and interest obligations remain fixed.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP liabilities were $3.614 billion at FY2025 year-end, up from $2.681 billion at FY2024 year-end.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
FICO’s score franchise remains embedded enough in lender and mortgage-market workflows that price and usage gains continue to convert into revenue rather than triggering broad substitution. If the score standard holds, FICO can keep compounding with limited capital; if substitution becomes credible, the highest-quality part of the franchise is impaired.
FICO’s analytics IP and software delivery model keep incremental revenue highly profitable because customers are paying for standardized risk intelligence rather than labor-intensive customization. This is what turns franchise strength into owner earnings; if delivery becomes services-heavy or price competition rises, growth would be much less valuable.
FICO’s broader decisioning and analytics software remains important enough to diversify the business beyond a single mortgage-score pricing lever. A broader analytics platform would make the franchise more durable; if customers view FICO mainly as an expensive score vendor, regulatory and substitution risk matters more.
FICO’s asset-light economics generate enough operating cash flow to fund shareholder returns and per-share compounding without needing heavy reinvestment. The investment case depends on cash conversion, not accounting growth alone; if cash flow weakens, buybacks and debt tolerance become much less attractive.
The same capital allocation that boosts per-share value also raises fragility because FICO carries substantial liabilities and negative book equity, leaving less room if the franchise stumbles. Leverage can amplify equity returns while the moat holds, but it can also force a change in buybacks or investment if cash flows are pressured.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
its score franchise keeps enough pricing power despite regulatory and alternative-score pressure.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Fair Isaac
Where the evidence on Fair Isaac stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 13, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 4 strengthening and 1 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
FICO’s score franchise remains embedded enough in lender and mortgage-market workflows that price and usage gains continue to convert into revenue rather than triggering broad substitution.
FICO’s analytics IP and software delivery model keep incremental revenue highly profitable because customers are paying for standardized risk intelligence rather than labor-intensive customization.
FICO’s broader decisioning and analytics software remains important enough to diversify the business beyond a single mortgage-score pricing lever.
FICO’s asset-light economics generate enough operating cash flow to fund shareholder returns and per-share compounding without needing heavy reinvestment.
The same capital allocation that boosts per-share value also raises fragility because FICO carries substantial liabilities and negative book equity, leaving less room if the franchise stumbles.
Bear case: what would count against it
FHFA, Fannie Mae, or Freddie Mac implementation choices make VantageScore 4.0 or other models practical substitutes for FICO in mortgage origination.
Large lenders require bespoke implementations, indemnities, or service commitments that make deployments more labor-intensive.
Banks standardize fraud, decisioning, and customer-management systems on Experian, TransUnion, Equifax, SAS, NICE Actimize, or internal machine-learning platforms.
Company research
Research on Fair Isaac
- Reporting · Why Is Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE: FICO) Stock Down 60% This Year?
Mortgage-score competition challenged Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE: FICO)'s pricing moat while strong Scores growth and debt-funded buybacks pulled the investment case in opposite directions.
- Reporting · Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE: FICO) Faces Equal Mortgage Pricing
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac now charge the same credit fees for Classic FICO and VantageScore 4.0. The real test is whether lenders switch models.
- Reporting · Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE: FICO) Faces a 99-Cent Mortgage Score Rival
TransUnion (NYSE: TRU) locked VantageScore mortgage pricing at $0.99 through 2028, putting a durable price gap beside the profit engine at Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE: FICO).
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Fair Isaac’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Fair Isaac, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Fair Isaac.
- Analyst downgradecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 12,641 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedCosts associated with exit or disposal activities.
Fair Isaac filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-06: Costs associated with exit or disposal activities. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Fair Isaac filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-29: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedEntered a material definitive agreement.
Fair Isaac filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-06-08: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- FHFA, Fannie Mae, or Freddie Mac implementation choices make VantageScore 4.0 or other models practical substitutes for FICO in mortgage origination.
- Large lenders require bespoke implementations, indemnities, or service commitments that make deployments more labor-intensive.
- Banks standardize fraud, decisioning, and customer-management systems on Experian, TransUnion, Equifax, SAS, NICE Actimize, or internal machine-learning platforms.
- Customers push for slower payment terms, usage-based concessions, or contract structures that reduce cash conversion.
- A credit-score pricing shock reduces cash flow while debt and interest obligations remain fixed.
FICO news
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Financial statements
FICO income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
FICO: quick answers
- When does Fair Isaac (FICO) report earnings next?
- Fair Isaac's next results are projected for January 27, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 4, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is FICO's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 2.5M FICO shares were sold short, 11.8% of its shares outstanding, up 4.3% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.1 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. FICO short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded FICO?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 2 trades in FICO by 1 filer: 0 purchases and 2 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed FICO trade
- Which well-known investors own FICO?
- 2 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported FICO shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Akre Capital Management (Chuck Akre), 5.0%; Fundsmith (Terry Smith), 0.2%. Fund portfolios
FICO in well-known investors’ portfolios
2 of 37 funds reported FICO shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuck AkreAkre Capital Management | 5.0% | $223M | +3.9% | Q3 2026 |
| Terry SmithFundsmith | 0.16% | $21.4M | New | Q2 2026 |