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Thesis Backtester
- 6,789public companies read daily
- 2,047with a broken thesis today
- 559getting stronger
- Datedsource behind every signal
The thesis
Apple converts premium hardware sales into growing, high-margin recurring Services and cash flow through an integrated ecosystem, which funds R&D and capital returns and sustains pricing power.
The read
The record doesn't lean either way. Across 1,809 past cases a quarter finished well ahead and a quarter well behind — this setup didn't separate winners from losers.
Where 40 real companies went after the same signal: Target below price
TaggedTarget below priceAnalyst downgradeInsider sellingManagement change
Alert me if Apple Inc. breaks its thesis
One email the day a new filing crosses a break condition — nothing else.
Apple Inc. AAPLoptimistfi.com · Nov 13, 2026
7 companies depend on Apple Inc. for a large share of their revenue
- CRUSCirrus Logic, Inc.91% of its revenue10-K ↗
- SWKSSkyworks Solutions, Inc.67% of its revenue10-K ↗
- QRVOQorvo, Inc.50% of its revenue10-K ↗
- STMSTMicroelectronics N.V.18% of its revenue10-K ↗
- WMGWarner Music Group Corp.11% of its revenue10-K ↗
- TTWOTake Two Interactive Software Inc≥10% of its revenue10-K ↗
- IDCCInterDigital, Inc.≥10% of its revenue10-K ↗
Each figure is the share of that company's revenue it disclosed came from Apple Inc., read from its own 10-K. If Apple Inc. stumbles, these are the names most exposed.
The record does not lean either way. A quarter of the 1,809 past cases finished well behind and a quarter well ahead, so this setup did not separate winners from losers.
Why this path
We're seeing analyst downgrade, management change, insider selling, target below price on Apple Inc. at the same time. That combination has occurred 132 times across 117 companies, and those stocks beat comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, with the middle half between -13% and +14%.
Taken one at a time, the lead condition alone has a different and larger record: Apple Inc. is showing target below price, alongside analyst downgrade and insider selling. Against that, revenue growing and highly profitable are working in its favour. The lead condition has occurred 1,809 times across 921 different companies. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the following six months, with the middle half landing between -15% and +14%, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
It goes both ways. Of the 40 cases drawn here, 19 ended ahead of comparable companies (48%) and 21 behind. A median is the middle of that spread, not a verdict that this one falls — which is why the individual paths are drawn rather than a single line.
A base rate across all companies — the distribution of what followed this setup. It is not a forecast for Apple Inc., and the sample leans toward companies that survived, so the worst outcomes are understated.
The record, by horizon
Every condition on this company — for and against — and what followed each one
| Condition | Flagged | Seen | Companies | Typical 6 mo | 10+ pts behind | …and a weak chart |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Target below price | Nov 11, 2026 | 1,809 | 921 | -1% | 33% | not enough history |
| Analyst downgrade | Oct 20, 2026 ×2 | 12,641 | 3,225 | -1% | 33% | not enough history |
| Insider selling | Oct 2, 2026 | 9,137 | 2,224 | +1% | 30% | not enough history |
| Management change | Sep 1, 2026 | 16,849 | 4,203 | -2% | 38% | not enough history |
| Analyst upgrade | seen in the last 6 months | 12,259 | 2,903 | +0% | 31% | not enough history |
| Margin expanding | seen in the last 6 months | 11,832 | 3,556 | +0% | 34% | not enough history |
| Revenue growing | seen in the last 6 months | 20,240 | 4,551 | +1% | 32% | not enough history |
Each row is one condition currently visible on Apple Inc., how many times it has occurred across the market, and the median excess return over the six months that followed. Conditions working in its favour are the favourable business signals (revenue growing, margins widening), listed alongside the breaks. Where each lands on the chart is what actually followed it, not our label — a favourable condition can still sit left of the line. The last column is the same condition when the chart was alsoweak at the time — two conditions together, where we have enough cases to measure it.
The companies behind those lines
- KLACJan 5, 2026+70%
- HSTFeb 4, 2026+26%
- MNSTNov 26, 2025+16%
- AAPLMay 18, 2023+9%
- INTCJan 12, 2023+5%
- PPGNov 30, 2022+1%
- PBFeb 10, 2026-3%
- LIINov 5, 2024-8%
- DLTRJan 6, 2026-12%
- EXPENov 7, 2023-19%
- LNCFeb 2, 2023-25%
- CCLFeb 9, 2022-46%
A fixed sample of the 1,809 cases, chosen the same way each time and never by how it turned out — so the selection can't drift toward the flattering ones. The 12 listed are spread evenly from the best outcome to the worst, so what you read here carries the same win-and-loss split as all 40. Each figure is that company's return against comparable companies over the six months after the situation was visible.
Who's been buying and selling
- Jennifer NewsteadSVP, GC and Government Affairsopen-market sale2,399 sh$842,913
- Jennifer NewsteadSVP, GC and Government Affairsopen-market sale2,399 sh$781,474
- Jennifer NewsteadSVP, GC and Government Affairsopen-market sale2,399 sh$823,721
- Jennifer NewsteadSVP, GC and Government Affairsopen-market sale2,399 sh$814,748
- Ben BordersPrincipal Accounting Officeropen-market sale40 sh$13,897
- Ben BordersPrincipal Accounting Officeropen-market sale40 sh$13,849
Past 30 days: $0 bought, $4.2M sold across 14 reported transactions. Showing the 6 most recent of 14. Selling is routine at large caps; buying is the rarer signal.
What's on the calendar
- Earnings52 weeks after the same quarter's report a year earlier (2026-01-29); median gap 91d over 8 filings
Dates derived from filing cadence and trial registries — estimated, not confirmed by the company.
The filings behind this
- Other material eventitem 8.01 · 9.01
- Reported results of operations (earnings release)item 2.02 · 9.01
- Reported results of operations (earnings release)item 2.02 · 9.01
- dividend
- Reported results of operations (earnings release)item 2.02 · 9.01
- Director or principal officer changeitem 5.02
- Reported results of operations (earnings release)item 2.02 · 9.01
- Director or principal officer changeitem 5.02
The wider context
Congressional trades
- Congress
- net selling38 trades · 21 members · to Oct 2, 2026
- Sector
- ManufacturingNasdaq
- 10-yr Treasury
- 5.15%the rate every valuation is discounted against
- Unemployment
- 4.1%latest print
- Flow sentiment
- bearishfrom insider and congressional filings only
The standing case, and what would end it
Apple converts premium hardware sales into growing, high-margin recurring Services and cash flow through an integrated ecosystem, which funds R&D and capital returns and sustains pricing power.
A growing Services mix (App Store, advertising, cloud…
Holding: MD&A: Services net sales increased 14% in 2025 to $109,158 million and Services gross margin percentage rose to 75.4%…; Fundamentals: Total gross profit increased from $180,683M (FY2024) to $195,201M (FY2025), consistent with Services and…
At risk:- App‑store regulatory action or mandated fee reductions that lower Services take rates and unit economics (e.g., EU/US…
- Major ad-revenue or payments disintermediation (competitor platforms or regulatory limits) that reduce Services growth…
Apple’s integrated hardware + OS + services ecosystem creates durable pricing power and high…
Holding: MD&A: iPhone net sales increased to $209,586M in 2025 (4% year-over-year), while Services grew 14%, showing coexistence…; Business description: Apple designs nearly the entire solution (hardware, OS, apps, services) — cited as a principal…
At risk:- Competitors (Android OEMs, Google) materially close the integration gap (cross-device continuity, payments, app…
- Regulatory interventions force unbundling (app sideloading mandates or payments changes) that reduce switching costs…
Large, steady operating cash flow enables aggressive capital returns and above-market R&D…
Holding: Fundamentals: operating cash flow was $111.48B for FY2025 (operating cash flow).; MD&A: R&D expense increased (R&D $34,550M noted in MD&A) showing ongoing investment alongside cash generation.
At risk:- A sustained deterioration in product margins or large one-time charges that reduce operating cash flow (e.g., tariffs…
- A major M&A or capital outlay that materially diverts cash from buybacks/R&D.
Geopolitical trade actions and tariffs are a leading margin risk because they raise component…
Holding: MD&A: Beginning Q2 2025, new U.S. Tariffs were announced across many countries and the Company specifically called out…; Fundamentals: operating income rose from $123,216M (FY2024) to $133,050M (FY2025), showing current resilience but also…
At risk:- New tariffs or retaliatory measures that materially increase import/component costs from China/Taiwan/other suppliers.
- Export controls or semiconductor supply restrictions that force costly redesigns or sourcing shifts.
Continued discipline in product innovation and launch cadence (annual iPhone refreshes…
Holding: MD&A: The Company lists multiple product launches during 2025 (iPhone 17 line, Apple Watch Series 11, iOS 26, visionOS…; Business: Apple emphasizes its need for timely introduction of innovative products as central to competition (Item 1…
At risk:- Competitors produce functionally equivalent devices at materially lower prices, reducing the incentive to upgrade.
- A visible slowdown in product feature progression (incremental updates only) that reduces upgrade economics.
What would break it: A durable breakdown of the integrated ecosystem economics — specifically, regulatory or competitive changes that materially reduce App Store take-rates or force meaningful unbundling of services, causing Services growth and margins to stop outpacing hardware and removing pricing power.
Next dated test: earnings on Jan 28, 2027 — expected from the company's filing cadence (an estimate, not a date the company confirmed), the next point where the case gets fresh evidence.
The debate — the bull and the bear on AAPL
Reading the full case…
What it reads
Every company, the same way, every day.
The same checks run on 6,789 public companies — not a watchlist, not the names that happen to be in the news. That's what makes a base rate possible: the signal is defined once and measured everywhere.
Filings & events
- Officer changes (8-K 5.02)
- Auditor switches (8-K 4.01)
- Restatements (8-K 4.02)
- Bankruptcy filings (8-K 1.03)
- Write-downs (8-K 2.06)
- Delistings (Form 25 / 15)
- Late filings (NT 10-K / 10-Q)
The numbers
- Revenue growth and decline
- Gross-margin compression
- Net-margin compression
- Operating losses
- Net losses
- Cash burn vs free cash flow
- Operating-margin compression
Market & analysts
- Analyst downgrades
- Price targets below the price
- Sharp drawdowns
- Trend vs the 200-day average
- Short interest
- Relative strength (RSI)
People & money
- Insider buying clusters
- Insider selling
- Congressional trades
- Dividends and buybacks
- Earnings dates
- Scheduled catalysts
Why it's different
It says what followed
Anyone can tell you a stock dropped or an officer resigned. The hard part is what came next. We measure it across every past occurrence and show the outcomes as they landed — including the ones that went the other way.
Every line is a real company
The paths on the chart are not simulations or smooth curves through a range. Each one happened to a specific company on a specific date, and you can see which.
The receipt travels with the claim
Each signal points at the filing that produced it, with the date it was filed. Where the history is too thin to support a figure, we say so rather than show one that looks more certain than it is.
The market right now
Today's setups, ranked by what followed them before.
Every company we cover, ranked by what its current set of conditions has historically been followed by — so you don't need to know which ticker to look up first. Weight is given to the situations with the most history behind them, not the largest headline number.
Best historical outcomes
Worst historical outcomes
- AAGH +5Late SEC filing + Sharp drawdown-16%824 cases
- COOT +4Auditor switch + Late SEC filing-15%868 cases
- CSUI +5Late SEC filing + Revenue decline-15%663 cases
- AWCA +12Management change + Late SEC filing-12%1,252 cases
- LDDD +1Late SEC filing + Margin pressure-13%766 cases
- DOGZAuditor switch + Operating loss-12%604 cases
Median forward return measured against comparable companies over 180 days after that same combination, across every past occurrence. A record of what followed similar situations — not a recommendation, and the sample leans toward companies that survived, so the worst outcomes are understated.
Questions
Is this a prediction?
No. Every forward line on the chart already happened — each one is a real company that was in this same position, drawn along the path its price actually took afterwards. What you're seeing is the historical record for this situation, not a forecast for this stock.
Where do the signals come from?
Company filings with the SEC — 8-Ks, 10-Ks, 10-Qs, Forms 4, 25 and 15 — plus daily prices and analyst actions. Each flagged signal is tied to the filing that produced it, with the date it was filed.
What is a base rate?
How often something has happened before, and what followed. If an analyst downgrade with the target below the price has occurred a thousand times across hundreds of companies, we can say what those stocks typically did next — measured against comparable companies, so a general market move isn't mistaken for a company story.
Why measure against comparable companies, not the S&P?
A stock that fell 8% in a month its peers fell 10% didn't underperform. But an index is the wrong yardstick over six months: it admits new listings this company never had, it rebalances while the company is held straight through, and being weighted by size it charges a smaller company for not being a mega cap. So each case is measured against a group of companies of comparable trading liquidity, formed on the event date and held to the same horizon.
How often does it update?
Signals update as new filings are published. The historical figures are recalculated across the whole market on a regular schedule rather than on each visit, so everything you read carries the date it was produced.
Is this financial advice?
No. It's a research tool that reports what happened before. It doesn't know your position, your timeframe or your risk, and it cannot tell you what to do.
Read the one you actually hold.
Type any ticker to see what's happening to it, where that has gone before, and why — or have us watch it and email you when something crosses.
OptimistFi is a research tool, not an investment adviser. Nothing here is a recommendation or a prediction. Historical outcomes describe what happened to other companies and do not establish what will happen to this one.