Broadcom
AVGONASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $345.22 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $354.72–$369.82 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 43.3M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 12, 4:00 PM ET.
- Dec 10 projected Projected for 2026-12-10 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $289.77–$495.00 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
- Broadcom sells custom artificial-intelligence accelerators, Ethernet networking chips and other semiconductors through distributors, equipment makers and direct channels; current growth hinges on AI data-center builds.↗↗↗
- VMware adds infrastructure software for large enterprises, including Cloud Foundation subscriptions that can run across on-premises data centers and supported cloud endpoints.↗↗
Why this business is different
- Broadcom can win large custom programs when accelerators and Ethernet networking are built around its designs, but top-customer concentration makes lost sockets unusually painful.↗↗
- VMware gives Broadcom a large enterprise software business; the risk is that customers resist Cloud Foundation adoption or subscription economics after the acquisition.↗↗↗
What could matter next
- The next AI test is revenue quality: whether rapid AI growth comes with normal payment terms and cash conversion, rather than leasing or deferred-payment structures.↗↗
- For VMware, the question is whether enterprises keep deploying Cloud Foundation subscriptions; sustained adoption would make software revenue a steadier counterweight to semiconductor cycles.↗↗
Why the Stock Moved
- December 2024 · AI scale confirmed: AI expectations moved from promising demand to a major revenue base. Broadcom said fiscal 2024 AI revenue was $12.2 billion and grew 220% year over year. Custom accelerators and Ethernet became central to earnings durability.↗↗
- March 2024 · Dual engine appears: Expectations broadened from a chip-cycle recovery toward a combined VMware and AI-growth model. Broadcom reiterated $50.0 billion fiscal 2024 revenue guidance and cited VMware Cloud Foundation deployment and hyperscaler AI demand. That raised confidence in growth offsetting weaker semiconductor lines.↗↗
- November 2023 · VMware closes: VMware moved from pending acquisition to owned software asset, while new borrowing added leverage. Broadcom completed VMware and borrowed the full $28.39 billion term loan on November 22, 2023. Software integration and debt service became central earnings variables.↗
The core investment thesis
Own AVGO if hyperscalers keep scaling Broadcom’s custom AI accelerators and Ethernet fabrics while VMware customers accept subscriptions that convert critical infrastructure software into durable cash flow.
AVGO price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Hyperscalers must keep buying Broadcom’s custom AI accelerators and Ethernet networking in larger programs, not just pull forward data-center builds.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Q3 fiscal 2026 AI semiconductor revenue grew 221% year over year, and Broadcom expected Q4 AI semiconductor revenue of $21.7 billion. Large custom programs can lift revenue and earnings when customers build accelerator and networking architectures around Broadcom parts.
Watch: Watch for slowing sequential AI revenue, cancelled expansion plans, or customers moving accelerator designs in-house.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Q3 AI semiconductor revenue of $16.7 billion grew 221% year-over-year, and 54% quarter-over-quarter
Open source ↗Sales to distributors accounted for 48% of our net revenue for each of the fiscal years 2025 and 2024
Open source ↗AI growth needs to remain high-quality revenue, with payment terms that do not trade future cash flow for headline growth.UnclearMateriality: High
The 2025 Form 10-K says some AI customers may seek leasing, alternative financing or deferred-payment models. Financed or deferred sales can raise credit risk and weaken cash conversion even when reported revenue grows quickly.
Watch: Watch disclosures on leasing, receivables, customer defaults and weaker cash conversion from AI programs.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Sales to distributors accounted for 48% of our net revenue for each of the fiscal years 2025 and 2024
Open source ↗VMware customers need to keep deploying Cloud Foundation subscriptions rather than reducing usage after Broadcom’s acquisition of the business.HoldingMateriality: High
Broadcom said VMware accelerated infrastructure software growth as customers deployed VMware Cloud Foundation; the 2025 filing describes movable Cloud Foundation subscriptions. Subscription adoption can turn installed infrastructure into durable software cash flows, while weak acceptance would hurt renewal economics.
Watch: Watch infrastructure software growth, renewal commentary, customer acceptance and migration complaints.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
our acquisition of VMware is accelerating revenue growth in our infrastructure software segment, as customers deploy VMware Cloud Foundation
Open source ↗Sales to distributors accounted for 48% of our net revenue for each of the fiscal years 2025 and 2024
Open source ↗Broadcom must preserve operating leverage as AI volumes scale, because the stock depends on revenue translating into earnings power.HoldingMateriality: High
Q2 fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA was 69% of revenue, while Q3 guidance called for non-GAAP operating income around 67% of revenue. High incremental margins convert design wins and software renewals into earnings faster than revenue alone.
Watch: Watch non-GAAP operating income margin, integration costs, product mix and gross-margin pressure.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
we expect semiconductor revenue from AI to grow over 200 percent year-over-year to $16.0 billion
Open source ↗Q3 AI semiconductor revenue of $16.7 billion grew 221% year-over-year, and 54% quarter-over-quarter
Open source ↗Broadcom’s largest customers must remain committed, because its concentrated model magnifies both design-win economics and single-customer revenue risk.UnclearMateriality: High
The 2025 Form 10-K says the top five end customers were about 40% of net revenue in both fiscal 2025 and 2024. Concentration can deepen technical alignment, but a lost socket or delayed build can quickly impair revenue.
Watch: Watch top-customer concentration, hyperscaler capital-spending cuts and signs that customers develop competing chips internally.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Sales to distributors accounted for 48% of our net revenue for each of the fiscal years 2025 and 2024
Open source ↗Broadcom and its manufacturing partners must deliver complex AI programs on time despite contract-manufacturing dependence and limited suppliers.UnclearMateriality: Medium
Broadcom’s Q3 fiscal 2026 cautionary language listed contract manufacturing dependence and limited suppliers among its risks. AI demand becomes earnings only if chips, networking parts and manufacturing capacity scale without shortages or expensive disruptions.
Watch: Watch supplier constraints, contract-manufacturing issues and gross-margin pressure tied to AI ramps.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Q3 AI semiconductor revenue of $16.7 billion grew 221% year-over-year, and 54% quarter-over-quarter
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Hyperscalers must keep buying Broadcom’s custom AI accelerators and Ethernet networking in larger programs, not just pull forward data-center builds. Large custom programs can lift revenue and earnings when customers build accelerator and networking architectures around Broadcom parts.
AI growth needs to remain high-quality revenue, with payment terms that do not trade future cash flow for headline growth. Financed or deferred sales can raise credit risk and weaken cash conversion even when reported revenue grows quickly.
VMware customers need to keep deploying Cloud Foundation subscriptions rather than reducing usage after Broadcom’s acquisition of the business. Subscription adoption can turn installed infrastructure into durable software cash flows, while weak acceptance would hurt renewal economics.
Broadcom must preserve operating leverage as AI volumes scale, because the stock depends on revenue translating into earnings power. High incremental margins convert design wins and software renewals into earnings faster than revenue alone.
Broadcom’s largest customers must remain committed, because its concentrated model magnifies both design-win economics and single-customer revenue risk. Concentration can deepen technical alignment, but a lost socket or delayed build can quickly impair revenue.
Broadcom and its manufacturing partners must deliver complex AI programs on time despite contract-manufacturing dependence and limited suppliers. AI demand becomes earnings only if chips, networking parts and manufacturing capacity scale without shortages or expensive disruptions.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
hyperscalers keep scaling Broadcom’s custom AI accelerators and Ethernet fabrics while VMware customers accept subscriptions that convert critical infrastructure software into durable cash flow.
Since this case
What has happened since Sep 11, 2026
The case above was written from evidence through Sep 11, 2026 and stays as written. This part is read from SEC filings and closing prices each time the page is built, so it moves as new reports are filed.
- Results
- No results reported since this case, as of this reading. The next report is expected around Dec 10, 2026, estimated from the company’s filing pattern.
- Share price
- No closing price is on file for the period since this case.
- Filings
- 1 8-K filing since Sep 11, 2026:
- Insiders
- Sold $242.0M on the open market in 15 transactions since Sep 11, 2026, from their Form 4 filings.
- Conditions
- Analyst downgrade (Oct 27, 2026) crossed since Sep 11, 2026. What has followed each across the market is in the Thesis-Break panel.
Read from SEC filings and closing prices through Nov 12, 2026. A filing made today can take up to about four hours to appear here.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Broadcom Inc.
Where the evidence on Broadcom disagrees: Strengthening on the latest evidence (Sep 11, 2026). Of its 6 thesis points, 1 strengthening, 2 holding and 3 unclear.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Hyperscalers must keep buying Broadcom’s custom AI accelerators and Ethernet networking in larger programs, not just pull forward data-center builds.
Broadcom release and SEC 8-K: Q3 fiscal 2026 results, Sep 2, 2026 ↗
VMware customers need to keep deploying Cloud Foundation subscriptions rather than reducing usage after Broadcom’s acquisition of the business.
Broadcom must preserve operating leverage as AI volumes scale, because the stock depends on revenue translating into earnings power.
Bear case: what the evidence questions
AI growth needs to remain high-quality revenue, with payment terms that do not trade future cash flow for headline growth.
Broadcom’s largest customers must remain committed, because its concentrated model magnifies both design-win economics and single-customer revenue risk.
Broadcom and its manufacturing partners must deliver complex AI programs on time despite contract-manufacturing dependence and limited suppliers.
Broadcom release and SEC 8-K: Q3 fiscal 2026 results, Sep 2, 2026 ↗
Company research
Research on Broadcom
- Reference guide · Broadcom's AI Revenue More Than Triples, With Another Jump Forecast
Broadcom’s AI-chip revenue reached $16.7 billion, above its $16 billion forecast. The next test is delivering another jump while protecting margins.
- Reporting · Why Is Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) Stock Down 7% This Year?
AI semiconductor revenue more than tripled in fiscal Q3, but customer concentration, a faster hardware mix and $61.1 billion of debt keep the next quarter decisive.
- Reporting · Does Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO)'s NTT Deal Move Revenue?
The new private-cloud agreement lasts a decade, but its undisclosed price leaves the earnings contribution unmeasurable.
- Reporting · Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) Has a $42 Billion Anthropic Test
The conditional note facility was unused on Aug. 2, while a separate lease backstop could reach about $29 billion after full deployment.
- Reporting · Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) Adds AI Substrate Capacity
The Singapore plant is due to start production in December, while TOPPAN targets at least 2.5 times its 2022 FC-BGA capacity by fiscal 2027.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Broadcom’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Broadcom, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Broadcom.
- Analyst downgradecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 12,641 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- SupportiveQ3 fiscal 2026 showed another AI step-up
Broadcom reported $29.591 billion of Q3 revenue and $16.7 billion of AI semiconductor revenue, then guided Q4 revenue to about $34.8 billion and AI semiconductor revenue to $21.7 billion. The thesis strengthened, while concentration and supply risks stayed central.
- SupportiveQ2 fiscal 2026 lifted the near-term AI ramp
Broadcom reported Q2 AI semiconductor revenue of $10.8 billion, up 143% year over year, and expected Q3 AI semiconductor revenue of $16.0 billion. That moved the debate toward supply execution and cash quality.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Watch for slowing sequential AI revenue, cancelled expansion plans, or customers moving accelerator designs in-house.
- Watch disclosures on leasing, receivables, customer defaults and weaker cash conversion from AI programs.
- Watch infrastructure software growth, renewal commentary, customer acceptance and migration complaints.
- Watch non-GAAP operating income margin, integration costs, product mix and gross-margin pressure.
- Watch top-customer concentration, hyperscaler capital-spending cuts and signs that customers develop competing chips internally.
- Watch supplier constraints, contract-manufacturing issues and gross-margin pressure tied to AI ramps.
AVGO news
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Financial statements
AVGO income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
AVGO: quick answers
- When does Broadcom (AVGO) report earnings next?
- Broadcom's next results are projected for December 10, 2026, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on September 2, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is AVGO's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 51.9M AVGO shares were sold short, down 3.1% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 2.4 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. AVGO short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded AVGO?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 14 trades in AVGO by 6 filers: 8 purchases and 6 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed AVGO trade
- Which well-known investors own AVGO?
- 8 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported AVGO shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Coatue Management (Philippe Laffont), 4.5%; Tiger Global Management (Chase Coleman), 2.8%; Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 2.0%. Fund portfolios
AVGO in well-known investors’ portfolios
8 of 37 funds reported AVGO shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philippe LaffontCoatue Management | 4.5% | $2.2B | +6.2% | Q2 2026 |
| Chase ColemanTiger Global Management | 2.8% | $663M | −51.1% | Q2 2026 |
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 2.0% | $498M | −28.2% | Q2 2026 |
| Cathie WoodARK Investment Management | 1.0% | $154M | −0.1% | Q2 2026 |
| George SorosSoros Fund Management | 0.77% | $62.4M | +6.5% | Q2 2026 |
| David TepperAppaloosa | 0.73% | $56.7M | New | Q2 2026 |
| Whale Rock Capital | 0.18% | $22.6M | −91.9% | Q2 2026 |
| Maverick Capital | 0.02% | $2.2M | New | Q2 2026 |