Nvidia
NVDANASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $173.73 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $148.80–$167.14 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 740.0M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 12, 4:00 PM ET.
- Nov 18 projected Projected for 2026-11-18 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $148.80–$243.37 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
- Cloud providers, AI developers and enterprises buy NVIDIA GPUs, networking and complete systems, often through server makers; larger deployments increase both compute and networking sales.↗
- Customers choose an integrated hardware-and-software platform for faster computing; NVIDIA captures value through design and performance rather than owning factories, supporting premium pricing and margins.↗
Why this business is different
- CUDA tools and libraries embed NVIDIA in developers’ workflows, making a switch more involved than replacing a chip and helping defend its position against rival accelerators.↗
- Sales depend on a small group of large buyers, some developing their own chips; those customers can become competitors and divert spending away from NVIDIA.↗
What could matter next
- NVIDIA says Rubin is in full production; the next test is whether customers can deploy it reliably without supply bottlenecks or transition costs eroding margins.↗↗
- Large customers can delay or cancel orders; whether AI infrastructure spending turns into sustained deployments determines how reliably today’s demand becomes repeat revenue.↗
Why the Stock Moved
- February 2024 · Profit economics: The new revenue base looked far more profitable. FY2024 GAAP gross margin of 72.7%, versus 56.9% in FY2023, supported expectations that sales growth could translate into disproportionately larger earnings.↗
- February 2025 · Another product cycle: The franchise looked repeatable beyond Hopper. Blackwell’s $11B in Q4 FY2025 strengthened the case for another product cycle rather than a one-generation windfall—though more complex systems initially reduced margins.↗
The core investment thesis
Own NVDA if AI deployments keep expanding and NVIDIA turns its platform advantage into durable, cash-generating profits.
NVDA price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
AI infrastructure spending must turn into recurring deployments, not a one-time buildout, for NVIDIA’s much larger earnings base to keep growing.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Q2 FY2027 Data Center revenue reached $89.0B, up 117% year over year; the company guided total next-quarter revenue to $108B, ±2%. Demand supports a larger near-term profit opportunity. It does not establish the returns customers will earn on their AI investment.
Watch: Order cancellations or sustained cuts to customers’ deployment plans would challenge repeat demand, even if the overall AI market keeps expanding.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Data Center revenue was $89.0 billion, up 117% year over year; Q3 revenue guidance was $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%.
Open source ↗CUDA and the integrated platform must remain worth paying for as large customers develop competing chips; AI spending alone does not guarantee NVIDIA’s share.UnclearMateriality: High
The FY2026 filing describes CUDA, specialized libraries and a broad developer ecosystem, while identifying customers’ internally developed solutions as competition. The question is whether switching friction and performance protect repeat purchases, not whether the total computing market grows.
Watch: Major customers moving important workloads to internal accelerators without sacrificing economics would weaken the platform’s pricing and share advantage.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
NVIDIA describes a full-stack computing platform built on CUDA, libraries, models and frameworks; customers may develop their own solutions.
Open source ↗Premium margins must survive more complex systems and competitive pressure, so rising sales still produce strong incremental earnings.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Q2 FY2027 GAAP gross margin was 75.0%, versus 72.4% a year earlier. Q3 guidance was 74.0%, ±0.5 percentage points. Year-over-year improvement supports profitability, but guidance leaves room for some sequential compression. A high level is not a promise of further expansion.
Watch: Persistent gross-margin compression beyond product-transition effects would suggest higher system costs or pricing pressure are taking more of each sales dollar.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP gross margin: Q2 FY2027 75.0%; Q2 FY2026 72.4%. Q3 FY2027 guidance: 74.0%, plus or minus 50 basis points.
Open source ↗Rubin must convert production readiness into reliable customer deployments without costly delays, preserving the product cycle beyond Blackwell.UnclearMateriality: High
In August 2026 NVIDIA said Vera Rubin was ramping into full production, with racks running at cloud partners. Separately reported Rubin revenue was not provided. A production milestone reduces one execution uncertainty; customer adoption and the financial return from the ramp remain separate tests.
Watch: Delayed deployments, reliability problems or excess inventory during the transition would break the link between the roadmap and profitable delivered systems.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
NVIDIA announced Vera Rubin ramping into full production, with racks running at partners including major cloud providers.
Open source ↗Cash collected from customers must keep pace with recognized sales; growth becomes less valuable if NVIDIA must finance customers through longer payment terms.WeakeningMateriality: High
First-half FY2027 operating cash flow was $74.4B versus $118.0B net income. Receivables absorbed $24.6B; noncash equity gains also boosted reported profit. The filing links part of the receivables increase to extended payment terms. This is weaker cash conversion, not proof of credit losses or fabricated sales.
Watch: Receivables repeatedly outgrowing collections, further payment extensions or credit losses would undermine the quality of earnings growth.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
First-half operating cash flow was $74.421B; net income was $118.010B. Receivables used $24.590B of cash and equity gains were $23.707B.
Open source ↗Growth outside China must sustain the earnings case without relying on a reopening; wider export restrictions could still reduce the addressable market.UnclearMateriality: Medium
The Q3 FY2027 outlook assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China. The filing continues to describe export-access constraints. Reopening is optional upside rather than a requirement embedded in that company outlook; further restrictions elsewhere would be a different downside.
Watch: Restrictions spreading to additional major markets, or local alternatives becoming entrenched during exclusion, would reduce future revenue opportunities.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
NVIDIA assumes no Data Center compute revenue from China in its Q3 FY2027 outlook.
Open source ↗Export restrictions constrain access to markets and can benefit competing ecosystems.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
AI infrastructure spending must turn into recurring deployments, not a one-time buildout, for NVIDIA’s much larger earnings base to keep growing. Demand supports a larger near-term profit opportunity. It does not establish the returns customers will earn on their AI investment.
CUDA and the integrated platform must remain worth paying for as large customers develop competing chips; AI spending alone does not guarantee NVIDIA’s share. The question is whether switching friction and performance protect repeat purchases, not whether the total computing market grows.
Premium margins must survive more complex systems and competitive pressure, so rising sales still produce strong incremental earnings. Year-over-year improvement supports profitability, but guidance leaves room for some sequential compression. A high level is not a promise of further expansion.
Rubin must convert production readiness into reliable customer deployments without costly delays, preserving the product cycle beyond Blackwell. A production milestone reduces one execution uncertainty; customer adoption and the financial return from the ramp remain separate tests.
Cash collected from customers must keep pace with recognized sales; growth becomes less valuable if NVIDIA must finance customers through longer payment terms. The filing links part of the receivables increase to extended payment terms. This is weaker cash conversion, not proof of credit losses or fabricated sales.
Growth outside China must sustain the earnings case without relying on a reopening; wider export restrictions could still reduce the addressable market. Reopening is optional upside rather than a requirement embedded in that company outlook; further restrictions elsewhere would be a different downside.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
AI deployments keep expanding and NVIDIA turns its platform advantage into durable, cash-generating profits.
Since this case
What has happened since Sep 7, 2026
The case above was written from evidence through Sep 7, 2026 and stays as written. This part is read from SEC filings and closing prices each time the page is built, so it moves as new reports are filed.
- Results
- No results reported since this case, as of this reading. The next report is expected around Nov 18, 2026, estimated from the company’s filing pattern.
- Share price
- -26.4% since Sep 8, 2026, from $225.73 to $166.04 on Nov 12, 2026. The stock alone, not measured against other companies.
- Filings
- 1 8-K filing since Sep 7, 2026:
- Insiders
- Sold $314.6M on the open market in 8 transactions since Sep 7, 2026, from their Form 4 filings.
- Conditions
- Insider-selling cluster (Sep 17, 2026), sharp drawdown (Nov 5, 2026) and analyst downgrade (Nov 12, 2026) crossed since Sep 7, 2026. What has followed each across the market is in the Thesis-Break panel.
Read from SEC filings and closing prices through Nov 13, 2026. A filing made today can take up to about four hours to appear here.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Nvidia
Where the evidence on Nvidia disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Sep 7, 2026). Of its 6 thesis points, 2 strengthening, 1 weakening and 3 unclear.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
AI infrastructure spending must turn into recurring deployments, not a one-time buildout, for NVIDIA’s much larger earnings base to keep growing.
NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 results · Rubin production update, Aug 26, 2026 ↗
Premium margins must survive more complex systems and competitive pressure, so rising sales still produce strong incremental earnings.
NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 results · Rubin production update, Aug 26, 2026 ↗
Bear case: what the evidence questions
CUDA and the integrated platform must remain worth paying for as large customers develop competing chips; AI spending alone does not guarantee NVIDIA’s share.
NVIDIA FY2026 10-K · Business and risk factors, Feb 25, 2026 ↗
Rubin must convert production readiness into reliable customer deployments without costly delays, preserving the product cycle beyond Blackwell.
NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 results · Rubin production update, Aug 26, 2026 ↗
Cash collected from customers must keep pace with recognized sales; growth becomes less valuable if NVIDIA must finance customers through longer payment terms.
Growth outside China must sustain the earnings case without relying on a reopening; wider export restrictions could still reduce the addressable market.
NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 results · Rubin production update, Aug 26, 2026 ↗
Company research
Research on Nvidia
- Reporting · Nvidia Fell While the Market Rallied. Here Is What Happened the Last Times It Did That
Nvidia fell 4.3% on Monday as the rest of the market climbed, after its board opened an investigation involving its chief executive. In 2018 a $10,000 holder lost almost a quarter more before getting back to even in four months. In 2008 the wait was a year.
- Reporting · NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) Targets 2.5x Substrate Capacity
Multi-year supply commitments reduce bottleneck risk, but most capacity arrives in 2027 or 2028 and incremental sales remain undisclosed.
- Reporting · Why Is NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) Stock Up 16% This Year?
Revenue more than doubled in the latest quarter and gross margin held at 75%, but a modest share gain shows how much growth the valuation already demands.
- Reporting · NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) Launches RTX Spark PCs
RTX Spark opens a lower-priced local-AI channel, but disclosed unit economics and shipment targets are still missing.
- Reporting · NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) Adds Chip-Fab Tools, Revenue Unclear
Chip-design and equipment vendors are testing faster simulations, but NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) has not disclosed sales tied to the new tools.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Nvidia’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Nvidia, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Nvidia.
- Analyst downgradecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 12,641 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
- Sharp drawdowncondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 15,428 times before. Those stocks beat comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
- Insider-selling clustercondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 9,137 times before. Those stocks beat comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 30% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
Several kinds of break have stacked on Nvidia at once. A cluster is a stronger read than any one signal alone.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- SupportiveThe next quarter sets a higher hurdle
The $108B revenue outlook extends the growth case beyond the quarter just reported. The next test is delivery against that guide—not another backward-looking growth percentage.
- MixedStrong margins, with a lower near-term guide
Management’s 74% GAAP gross-margin outlook is below the quarter’s 75%. Profitability remains high, but continued expansion should not be assumed.
- ChallengingPayment terms deserve closer attention
The filing attributes part of the receivables increase to extended terms on large customer agreements. Track collections before treating all earnings growth as equally cash-generative.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Order cancellations or sustained cuts to customers’ deployment plans would challenge repeat demand, even if the overall AI market keeps expanding.
- Major customers moving important workloads to internal accelerators without sacrificing economics would weaken the platform’s pricing and share advantage.
- Persistent gross-margin compression beyond product-transition effects would suggest higher system costs or pricing pressure are taking more of each sales dollar.
- Delayed deployments, reliability problems or excess inventory during the transition would break the link between the roadmap and profitable delivered systems.
- Receivables repeatedly outgrowing collections, further payment extensions or credit losses would undermine the quality of earnings growth.
- Restrictions spreading to additional major markets, or local alternatives becoming entrenched during exclusion, would reduce future revenue opportunities.
NVDA news
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Financial statements
NVDA income statement
Annual GAAP results · USD millions, except per-share amounts · Oldest to newest.
Reviewed annual results through · Financial data checked .
| Fiscal year / period end | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 60,922 | 130,497 | 215,938 |
| Gross profit | 44,301 | 97,858 | 153,463 |
| Gross marginCalculated | 72.7% | 75.0% | 71.1% |
| Operating income | 32,972 | 81,453 | 130,387 |
| Operating marginCalculated | 54.1% | 62.4% | 60.4% |
| Net income | 29,760 | 72,880 | 120,067 |
| Diluted EPS (USD/share) | 1.19 | 2.94 | 4.90 |
NVDA: quick answers
- When does Nvidia (NVDA) report earnings next?
- Nvidia's next results are projected for November 18, 2026, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on August 26, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is NVDA's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 280M NVDA shares were sold short, 1.16% of its shares outstanding, down 7.3% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 2.8 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. NVDA short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded NVDA?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 28 trades in NVDA by 10 filers: 15 purchases and 13 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed NVDA trade
- Which well-known investors own NVDA?
- 9 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported NVDA shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Altimeter Capital (Brad Gerstner), 19.2%; Tiger Global Management (Chase Coleman), 9.3%; Maverick Capital, 5.4%. Fund portfolios
NVDA in well-known investors’ portfolios
9 of 37 funds reported NVDA shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad GerstnerAltimeter Capital | 19.2% | $1.9B | +0.8% | Q2 2026 |
| Chase ColemanTiger Global Management | 9.3% | $2.2B | −6.8% | Q2 2026 |
| Maverick Capital | 5.4% | $612M | −3.7% | Q2 2026 |
| David TepperAppaloosa | 4.0% | $305M | +3.6% | Q2 2026 |
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 3.2% | $774M | −17.6% | Q2 2026 |
| George SorosSoros Fund Management | 2.6% | $213M | −0.8% | Q2 2026 |
| Philippe LaffontCoatue Management | 2.5% | $1.2B | −4.4% | Q2 2026 |
| Cathie WoodARK Investment Management | 1.8% | $276M | +33.4% | Q2 2026 |
| Whale Rock Capital | 0.61% | $75.5M | −63.8% | Q2 2026 |