Microsoft
MSFTNASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $523.00 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $513.82–$526.07 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 14.3M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 13, 3:23 PM ET.
- Jan 27 projected Projected for 2027-01-27 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $349.20–$559.15 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
- Businesses rent computing capacity through Azure and pay per worker for Microsoft 365. Microsoft earns more when customers use more computing power, add employees or buy higher-value software subscriptions.↗
- Artificial intelligence monetizes in two ways: Copilot adds a per-user fee to Microsoft 365, and AI workloads consume Azure capacity that can deepen enterprise accounts.↗↗
Why this business is different
- Its edge is a connected stack across productivity, identity, security, data, developer tools, and cloud; ecosystems and integration can lower deployment friction and make replacement harder.↗
- The offset is capital intensity: AI requires accelerated spending on datacenters, components, energy, and partners, so growth must produce enough consumption to protect returns.↗↗
What could matter next
- The Copilot question is renewal and expansion, not launch: if paid seats keep spreading beyond pilots, Office’s installed base can generate more revenue per worker.↗↗
- Azure’s next test is return on new AI capacity; component, power, or partner costs rising faster than monetization would pressure margins and cash conversion.↗↗
Why the Stock Moved
The core investment thesis
Own MSFT if enterprise customers keep expanding Azure and Microsoft 365 while Copilot and other artificial intelligence services earn returns above their fast-rising infrastructure costs.
MSFT price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Azure must remain a preferred home for enterprise artificial intelligence workloads and ordinary cloud migrations.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Microsoft reported Azure above $100 billion for fiscal 2026 and 43% Azure and other cloud services growth in Q4. Large Azure workloads drive infrastructure revenue, attach higher-level services, and support Microsoft’s relevance with enterprise technology buyers.
Watch: Watch for slower Azure growth, customer workload shifts to rivals, or capacity spending that stops translating into consumption.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Azure revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time, and Microsoft 365 Copilot reached over 30 million paid seats
Open source ↗These investments are being made at significant scale and on an accelerated timeline, require substantial and increasing capital expenditures
Open source ↗Microsoft 365 Copilot must keep converting Office users into paid artificial intelligence seats.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Copilot launched for enterprises at $30 per user per month and later reached more than 30 million paid seats. Paid Copilot adoption raises revenue per worker across an installed base Microsoft already serves through productivity subscriptions.
Watch: Watch for weak seat expansion, heavy discounting, low renewal activity, or customers limiting Copilot to narrow pilot groups.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Copilot for Microsoft 365 will be generally available for enterprise customers for $30 per user per month on November 1.
Open source ↗Azure revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time, and Microsoft 365 Copilot reached over 30 million paid seats
Open source ↗Customers must continue valuing Microsoft’s integrated stack across cloud, productivity, identity, security, data, and developer workflows.HoldingMateriality: High
Microsoft describes cloud integration across the technology stack and platform ecosystems where many participants build solutions. Integration lowers adoption friction and can make renewals more durable because multiple workflows, users, and partners depend on the same platform.
Watch: Watch for large customers unbundling workloads, security trust erosion, or developers shifting important applications outside Microsoft ecosystems.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
The Microsoft Cloud provides integration across the technology stack while offering openness, improving time to value, reducing costs, and increasing agility.
Open source ↗An important element of our business model has been to create platform-based ecosystems on which many participants can build diverse solutions.
Open source ↗Artificial intelligence infrastructure spending must earn acceptable returns despite heavy datacenter, component, energy, and model costs.WeakeningMateriality: High
Microsoft said AI investments are accelerated and capital-intensive; Q3 FY2026 cloud costs rose sharply from AI infrastructure. If incremental revenue does not clear these costs, reported growth can coexist with weaker margins and lower cash returns.
Watch: Watch Microsoft Cloud gross margin, capital expenditures, component availability, energy constraints, and pricing pressure for AI inference.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
These investments are being made at significant scale and on an accelerated timeline, require substantial and increasing capital expenditures
Open source ↗Cost of revenue increased $4.8 billion or 47% driven by investments in AI infrastructure
Open source ↗Strategic artificial intelligence relationships must improve Microsoft’s products without reducing control or economics.UnclearMateriality: Medium
Microsoft’s 2026 filing warns that partner priorities, access to third-party technologies, and commercial arrangements may change over time. Partners can supply models and demand Azure capacity, but changing terms could weaken product differentiation or reduce expected consumption.
Watch: Watch partner contract changes, model access limits, competing partner products, or reduced Azure consumption tied to strategic relationships.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
These investments are being made at significant scale and on an accelerated timeline, require substantial and increasing capital expenditures
Open source ↗Gaming and Windows cannot become large enough drags to offset cloud and productivity growth.WeakeningMateriality: Medium
Microsoft completed Activision Blizzard in 2023, but Q4 FY2026 reported declines in Xbox content and Windows OEM and Devices revenue. These businesses can still absorb capital, management attention, and restructuring charges even when cloud and Office drive the main thesis.
Watch: Watch Xbox content trends, subscription economics, console demand, personal-computer refresh cycles, and impairment or severance charges.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Microsoft completed its previously announced acquisition of Activision Blizzard, Inc.
Open source ↗Azure revenue surpassed $100 billion for the first time, and Microsoft 365 Copilot reached over 30 million paid seats
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Azure must remain a preferred home for enterprise artificial intelligence workloads and ordinary cloud migrations. Large Azure workloads drive infrastructure revenue, attach higher-level services, and support Microsoft’s relevance with enterprise technology buyers.
Microsoft 365 Copilot must keep converting Office users into paid artificial intelligence seats. Paid Copilot adoption raises revenue per worker across an installed base Microsoft already serves through productivity subscriptions.
Customers must continue valuing Microsoft’s integrated stack across cloud, productivity, identity, security, data, and developer workflows. Integration lowers adoption friction and can make renewals more durable because multiple workflows, users, and partners depend on the same platform.
Artificial intelligence infrastructure spending must earn acceptable returns despite heavy datacenter, component, energy, and model costs. If incremental revenue does not clear these costs, reported growth can coexist with weaker margins and lower cash returns.
Strategic artificial intelligence relationships must improve Microsoft’s products without reducing control or economics. Partners can supply models and demand Azure capacity, but changing terms could weaken product differentiation or reduce expected consumption.
Gaming and Windows cannot become large enough drags to offset cloud and productivity growth. These businesses can still absorb capital, management attention, and restructuring charges even when cloud and Office drive the main thesis.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
enterprise customers keep expanding Azure and Microsoft 365 while Copilot and other artificial intelligence services earn returns above their fast-rising infrastructure costs.
Since this case
What has happened since Sep 9, 2026
The case above was written from evidence through Sep 9, 2026 and stays as written. This part is read from SEC filings and closing prices each time the page is built, so it moves as new reports are filed.
- Results
- Q1 2027, the quarter to Sep 30, 2026, reported Oct 28, 2026 (8-K ↗): revenue $92.28B, up 18.8% on the same quarter a year earlier; net income $36.63B. Over the 12 months to Sep 30, 2026: revenue $346.44B, net income $142.63B (41.2% of revenue).
- Share price
- No closing price is on file for the period since this case.
- Filings
- 4 8-K filings since Sep 9, 2026:
- Insiders
- Sold $31.4M on the open market in 12 transactions since Sep 9, 2026, from their Form 4 filings.
- Conditions
- Analyst downgrade (Oct 9, 2026) and price target fell below the stock (Oct 12, 2026) crossed since Sep 9, 2026. What has followed each across the market is in the Thesis-Break panel.
Read from SEC filings and closing prices through Nov 13, 2026. A filing made today can take up to about four hours to appear here.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Microsoft Corporation
Where the evidence on Microsoft disagrees: Strengthening on the latest evidence (Sep 9, 2026). Of its 6 thesis points, 2 strengthening, 1 holding, 2 weakening and 1 unclear.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Azure must remain a preferred home for enterprise artificial intelligence workloads and ordinary cloud migrations.
Microsoft 365 Copilot must keep converting Office users into paid artificial intelligence seats.
Microsoft 365 Copilot general availability blog, Sep 21, 2023 ↗
Customers must continue valuing Microsoft’s integrated stack across cloud, productivity, identity, security, data, and developer workflows.
Bear case: what the evidence questions
Artificial intelligence infrastructure spending must earn acceptable returns despite heavy datacenter, component, energy, and model costs.
Strategic artificial intelligence relationships must improve Microsoft’s products without reducing control or economics.
Gaming and Windows cannot become large enough drags to offset cloud and productivity growth.
Company research
Research on Microsoft
- Reporting · Anthropic Raises Its Microsoft Azure Commitment to $44.9 Billion
The minimum spending promise has grown by almost half. Its value to shareholders still depends on delivery costs, revenue timing and the capital Microsoft supplies.
- Reporting · Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) Has a Cap on OpenAI Revenue Sharing
CNBC estimates OpenAI's annual run rate at $68 billion. Microsoft's revenue share is capped, and most Microsoft Cloud revenue comes from elsewhere.
- Reporting · Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) Puts Copilot Agents on Usage Billing
Home and Code enter the Frontier rollout in coming weeks, while Autopilot moves to private preview at month-end.
- Reporting · Microsoft Proposes Safety Rules for Its Future AI Models
Microsoft's draft code would guide its own AI models from 2027. Current models are not trained on it, limiting what investors can conclude today.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Microsoft’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Microsoft, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Microsoft.
- Price target fell below the stockcondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 1,809 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
- Analyst downgradecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 12,641 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
Several kinds of break have stacked on Microsoft at once. A cluster is a stronger read than any one signal alone.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- SupportiveAzure and Copilot reached larger reported scale
Microsoft said Azure revenue surpassed $100 billion for fiscal 2026 and Microsoft 365 Copilot reached more than 30 million paid seats. That strengthens the view that AI is becoming a monetized extension of cloud and productivity, not only a product demo cycle.
- SupportiveCloud obligations expanded with current demand
Contracted commercial revenue not yet recognized rose 84% to $678 billion. That gives Microsoft more visibility into future sales, but these commitments can span years; they are not the same as cash already collected or next quarter’s revenue.
- ChallengingAI infrastructure raised cloud cost pressure
Microsoft’s Q3 Intelligent Cloud discussion said cost of revenue rose 47% because of AI infrastructure and GitHub Copilot usage, with gross margin percentage down. That is the key contradiction to the AI growth case: demand is real, but expensive to serve.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Watch for slower Azure growth, customer workload shifts to rivals, or capacity spending that stops translating into consumption.
- Watch for weak seat expansion, heavy discounting, low renewal activity, or customers limiting Copilot to narrow pilot groups.
- Watch for large customers unbundling workloads, security trust erosion, or developers shifting important applications outside Microsoft ecosystems.
- Watch Microsoft Cloud gross margin, capital expenditures, component availability, energy constraints, and pricing pressure for AI inference.
- Watch partner contract changes, model access limits, competing partner products, or reduced Azure consumption tied to strategic relationships.
- Watch Xbox content trends, subscription economics, console demand, personal-computer refresh cycles, and impairment or severance charges.
MSFT news
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Financial statements
MSFT income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
MSFT: quick answers
- When does Microsoft (MSFT) report earnings next?
- Microsoft's next results are projected for January 27, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 28, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is MSFT's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 60.9M MSFT shares were sold short, 0.82% of its shares outstanding, down 7.2% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 2.7 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. MSFT short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded MSFT?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 40 trades in MSFT by 15 filers: 21 purchases and 19 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed MSFT trade
- Which well-known investors own MSFT?
- 11 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported MSFT shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Pershing Square (Bill Ackman), 11.9%; Altimeter Capital (Brad Gerstner), 4.8%; Fundsmith (Terry Smith), 4.4%. Fund portfolios
MSFT in well-known investors’ portfolios
11 of 37 funds reported MSFT shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bill AckmanPershing Square | 11.9% | $2.3B | — | Q2 2026 |
| Brad GerstnerAltimeter Capital | 4.8% | $473M | +7.1% | Q2 2026 |
| Terry SmithFundsmith | 4.4% | $596M | −23.2% | Q2 2026 |
| Chase ColemanTiger Global Management | 3.5% | $846M | −9.3% | Q2 2026 |
| Maverick Capital | 2.7% | $310M | +14.7% | Q2 2026 |
| Philippe LaffontCoatue Management | 2.3% | $1.1B | +18.4% | Q2 2026 |
| Tom GaynerMarkel Group | 2.1% | $276M | No change | Q3 2026 |
| Andreas HalvorsenViking Global Investors | 1.6% | $544M | −36.8% | Q2 2026 |
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 1.1% | $266M | −34.4% | Q2 2026 |
| George SorosSoros Fund Management | 0.87% | $70.9M | −10.4% | Q2 2026 |
| Cathie WoodARK Investment Management | 0.01% | $2.3M | −3.5% | Q2 2026 |