TD at a glance
The past year
Chart+49.6% $123.81, close Nov 13
- From the highest close
- −3.4%
- Vs the 200-day average
- +10.5%
Short interest
History8.4M shares
- Since the last report
- −49.0%
- Days to cover
- 6.5 days
- Settled
- Oct 30, 2026
Congress and officials
TradesNone in 90 days
- Disclosed trades on record
- 26
Insider buying, 7 days
FilingsNone filed this week
- Form 4s filed
- Nov 8 – Nov 14
Top investors
Funds1 of 37 funds hold it
- Maverick Capital
- 0.0%
- Latest 13F filings
- 1 added · 0 cut
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
TD price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
TD’s future top-line growth will be driven by continued expansion of interest-earning assets and fee-bearing customer relationships rather than one-off trading gains; if assets keep growing and customer spreads hold, revenue should continue to rise.StrengtheningMateriality: High
revenue increased from CAD 42.693B (FY2021) → CAD 50.69B (FY2023) → CAD 57.223B (FY2024) → CAD 67.777B (FY2025). If the bank can convert asset growth into stable revenue, the franchise justifies multiple compression risks; if not, valuation relies on volatile items or one-off effects.
Watch: A sustained fall in policy rates (Bank of Canada / Fed) or an intensified deposit rate war from U.S. challengers that compresses net interest margins before asset yields reprice.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
revenue increased from CAD 42.693B (FY2021) → CAD 50.69B (FY2023) → CAD 57.223B (FY2024) → CAD 67.777B (FY2025).
Open source ↗Sustained EPS compounding depends on stable net interest margins and controlled credit provisioning; EPS will revert down quickly if credit losses re-accelerate or margins compress.HoldingMateriality: High
eps_diluted fell from CAD 9.47 (FY2022) → CAD 5.52 (FY2023) → CAD 4.72 (FY2024) then jumped to CAD 11.56 (FY2025), showing sensitivity to provisions / cyclical items. EPS is the owner-level payoff (dividends + buybacks + retained earnings). If EPS is volatile, realized shareholder returns will be uncertain despite large nominal revenues.
Watch: A macro downturn causing rising consumer and commercial loan defaults (e.g., Canadian housing shock or U.S. consumer stress) that forces large provisioning and reduces net income.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
eps_diluted fell from CAD 9.47 (FY2022) → CAD 5.52 (FY2023) → CAD 4.72 (FY2024) then jumped to CAD 11.56 (FY2025).
Open source ↗TD’s operating cash flow is highly sensitive to balance-sheet and deposit/asset mix moves; persistent volatility in operating_cash_flow signals funding and liquidity risks that can limit capital returns.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
operating_cash_flow shows large swings: CAD 50.129B (FY2021) → CAD 38.949B (FY2022) → CAD -65.302B (FY2023) → CAD 54.937B (FY2024) → CAD -69.646B (FY2025), indicating balance-sheet-driven volatility. If operating cash generation swings widely, management will face trade-offs between shoring up liquidity/capital and returning cash to shareholders.
Watch: A large, rapid shift of customer deposits into higher-yield products or away from the bank (deposit outflow) forcing short-term wholesale funding increases.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
operating_cash_flow shows large swings: CAD 50.129B (FY2021) → CAD 38.949B (FY2022) → CAD -65.302B (FY2023) → CAD 54.937B (FY2024) →.
Open source ↗Rising equity gives TD the capital buffer to sustain dividends and buybacks, but that buffer can be rapidly eroded by sustained loan losses or large goodwill/asset write-downs.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
equity increased from CAD 99.818B (FY2021) → CAD 111.383B (FY2022) → CAD 112.071B (FY2023) → CAD 115.16B (FY2024) → CAD 127.827B (FY2025), implying more capital headroom. If equity is eroded management must conserve capital, reducing shareholder returns and re-rating the multiple down.
Watch: A multi-quarter credit shock that generates cumulative losses large enough to materially reduce CET1 and reported equity (e.g., sustained commercial real-estate losses).
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
equity increased from CAD 99.818B (FY2021) → CAD 111.383B (FY2022) → CAD 112.071B (FY2023) → CAD 115.16B (FY2024) → CAD.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
TD’s future top-line growth will be driven by continued expansion of interest-earning assets and fee-bearing customer relationships rather than one-off trading gains; if assets keep growing and customer spreads hold, revenue should continue to rise. If the bank can convert asset growth into stable revenue, the franchise justifies multiple compression risks; if not, valuation relies on volatile items or one-off effects.
Sustained EPS compounding depends on stable net interest margins and controlled credit provisioning; EPS will revert down quickly if credit losses re-accelerate or margins compress. EPS is the owner-level payoff (dividends + buybacks + retained earnings). If EPS is volatile, realized shareholder returns will be uncertain despite large nominal revenues.
TD’s operating cash flow is highly sensitive to balance-sheet and deposit/asset mix moves; persistent volatility in operating_cash_flow signals funding and liquidity risks that can limit capital returns. If operating cash generation swings widely, management will face trade-offs between shoring up liquidity/capital and returning cash to shareholders.
Rising equity gives TD the capital buffer to sustain dividends and buybacks, but that buffer can be rapidly eroded by sustained loan losses or large goodwill/asset write-downs. If equity is eroded management must conserve capital, reducing shareholder returns and re-rating the multiple down.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
TD’s value comes from a huge, growing retail-and-commercial banking franchise that converts deposit-funded asset growth into fee and interest income — but its returns are cyclical and hinge on interest-rate levels, credit losses, and.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Toronto Dominion Bank
Where the evidence on Toronto Dominion Bank stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 13, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 1 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
TD’s future top-line growth will be driven by continued expansion of interest-earning assets and fee-bearing customer relationships rather than one-off trading gains; if assets keep growing and customer spreads hold, revenue should continue to rise.
Sustained EPS compounding depends on stable net interest margins and controlled credit provisioning; EPS will revert down quickly if credit losses re-accelerate or margins compress.
TD’s operating cash flow is highly sensitive to balance-sheet and deposit/asset mix moves; persistent volatility in operating_cash_flow signals funding and liquidity risks that can limit capital returns.
Rising equity gives TD the capital buffer to sustain dividends and buybacks, but that buffer can be rapidly eroded by sustained loan losses or large goodwill/asset write-downs.
Bear case: what would count against it
A sustained fall in policy rates (Bank of Canada / Fed) or an intensified deposit rate war from U.S. challengers that compresses net interest margins before asset yields reprice.
A macro downturn causing rising consumer and commercial loan defaults (e.g., Canadian housing shock or U.S. consumer stress) that forces large provisioning and reduces net income.
A large, rapid shift of customer deposits into higher-yield products or away from the bank (deposit outflow) forcing short-term wholesale funding increases.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · Toronto Dominion Bank
No break has crossed Toronto Dominion Bank’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedForeign issuer material report (6-K).
Toronto Dominion Bank filed an SEC report on 2026-10-09: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedForeign issuer material report (6-K).
Toronto Dominion Bank filed an SEC report on 2026-09-30: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedForeign issuer material report (6-K).
Toronto Dominion Bank filed an SEC report on 2026-09-28: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- A sustained fall in policy rates (Bank of Canada / Fed) or an intensified deposit rate war from U.S. challengers that compresses net interest margins before asset yields reprice.
- A macro downturn causing rising consumer and commercial loan defaults (e.g., Canadian housing shock or U.S. consumer stress) that forces large provisioning and reduces net income.
- A large, rapid shift of customer deposits into higher-yield products or away from the bank (deposit outflow) forcing short-term wholesale funding increases.
- A multi-quarter credit shock that generates cumulative losses large enough to materially reduce CET1 and reported equity (e.g., sustained commercial real-estate losses).
TD news
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Financial statements
TD income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
TD: quick answers
- What is TD's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 8.4M TD shares were sold short, down 49.0% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 6.5 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. TD short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded TD?
- 26 trades in TD have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed TD trade
- Which well-known investors own TD?
- 1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported TD shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Maverick Capital, 0.0%. Fund portfolios
TD in well-known investors’ portfolios
1 of 37 funds reported TD shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maverick Capital | 0.00% | $518K | +13.1% | Q2 2026 |