Case todayOn watchEarly warning: operating loss (trailing 12 months) · Nov 13, 2026The case · holding · Oct 14, 2026Own MNPR if clinical or partnering evidence de-risks its drug pipeline faster than operating burn and dilution consume that option value.5 conditions3 strengthening · 2 holdingNext resultsFeb 11, 2027Projected from its filing dates

MNPR at a glance

The past year

Chart

−12.7% $72.07, close Nov 13

From the highest close
−41.8%
Vs the 200-day average
−6.7%
Nov 12, 2025Daily close, Monopar TherapeuticsNov 13, 2026

Short interest

History

1.1M shares

Of shares outstanding
16.3%
Since the last report
−2.2%
Days to cover
8.8 days
Settled
Oct 30, 2026

Insider buying, 7 days

Filings

None filed this week

Form 4s filed
Nov 8 – Nov 14

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

MNPR price history

Latest price$72.00Today−$0.68 (-0.94%)
MNPR -2.13%S&P 500 -2.05%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • A large cash balance relative to current burn gives Monopar time to reach clinical, regulatory, or partnering milestones without immediately negotiating from a distressed position.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    FY2025 GAAP cash was $61.8 million, up from $45.8 million at FY2024 year-end. If runway is real, shareholders retain exposure to upside readouts; if it disappears, dilution or strategic weakness can dominate even good science.

    Watch: Management launches materially larger or more complex trials that step-change cash burn before producing interpretable efficacy or safety data.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    FY2025 GAAP cash was $61.8 million, up from $45.8 million at FY2024 year-end.

    Open source ↗
  • Because Monopar has no commercial revenue base, value creation depends on its drug-development pipeline generating externally credible evidence that a partner, regulator, or acquirer will underwrite.HoldingMateriality: High

    FY2025 GAAP revenue was $0.0, unchanged from FY2024 GAAP revenue of $0.0. If pipeline evidence improves, valuation can re-rate before revenue exists; if it does not, the company remains a cash-burning shell around uncertain assets.

    Watch: The lead program reports efficacy, safety, durability, or tolerability data that does not support continued development.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    FY2025 GAAP revenue was $0.0, unchanged from FY2024 GAAP revenue of $0.0.

    Open source ↗
  • A low-liability capital structure keeps the common equity primarily exposed to pipeline outcomes rather than creditor control or balance-sheet restructuring.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    FY2025 GAAP liabilities were $2.9 million versus FY2025 GAAP assets of $140.7 million. Clean capitalization lets upside accrue to shareholders; new debt or onerous obligations could transfer much of the economics away from common holders.

    Watch: The company takes on secured debt, royalty financing, or structured obligations backed by core intellectual property.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    FY2025 GAAP liabilities were $2.9 million versus FY2025 GAAP assets of $140.7 million.

    Open source ↗
  • Higher development spending is value-creating only if it is tied to milestone-producing trial and regulatory execution rather than unfocused overhead or repeated program resets.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    FY2025 GAAP operating income was negative $16.7 million, broadly similar to FY2024 GAAP operating income of negative $16.2 million. In pre-revenue biotech, burn is an investment only when it buys de-risking; otherwise it shortens runway and increases dilution risk.

    Watch: Management repeatedly changes development priorities without delivering interpretable clinical or regulatory milestones.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    FY2025 GAAP operating income was negative $16.7 million, broadly similar to FY2024 GAAP operating income of negative $16.2 million.

    Open source ↗
  • Monopar’s ability to raise or retain equity capital without layering on debt is a critical operating advantage for a pre-revenue developer, but it must not come at excessive dilution to existing holders.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    FY2025 GAAP equity was $137.8 million, up from $55.0 million at FY2024 year-end. Financing access can keep the pipeline alive through data events; poor financing terms can destroy per-share value even if the company survives.

    Watch: A future equity raise occurs at a steep discount or includes warrants that create a large overhang.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    FY2025 GAAP equity was $137.8 million, up from $55.0 million at FY2024 year-end.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

A large cash balance relative to current burn gives Monopar time to reach clinical, regulatory, or partnering milestones without immediately negotiating from a distressed position. If runway is real, shareholders retain exposure to upside readouts; if it disappears, dilution or strategic weakness can dominate even good science.

Because Monopar has no commercial revenue base, value creation depends on its drug-development pipeline generating externally credible evidence that a partner, regulator, or acquirer will underwrite. If pipeline evidence improves, valuation can re-rate before revenue exists; if it does not, the company remains a cash-burning shell around uncertain assets.

A low-liability capital structure keeps the common equity primarily exposed to pipeline outcomes rather than creditor control or balance-sheet restructuring. Clean capitalization lets upside accrue to shareholders; new debt or onerous obligations could transfer much of the economics away from common holders.

Higher development spending is value-creating only if it is tied to milestone-producing trial and regulatory execution rather than unfocused overhead or repeated program resets. In pre-revenue biotech, burn is an investment only when it buys de-risking; otherwise it shortens runway and increases dilution risk.

Monopar’s ability to raise or retain equity capital without layering on debt is a critical operating advantage for a pre-revenue developer, but it must not come at excessive dilution to existing holders. Financing access can keep the pipeline alive through data events; poor financing terms can destroy per-share value even if the company survives.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

clinical or partnering evidence de-risks its drug pipeline faster than operating burn and dilution consume that option value.

Evidence assessed Oct 14, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Monopar Therapeutics

Where the evidence on Monopar Therapeutics stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 14, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 2 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • A large cash balance relative to current burn gives Monopar time to reach clinical, regulatory, or partnering milestones without immediately negotiating from a distressed position.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Because Monopar has no commercial revenue base, value creation depends on its drug-development pipeline generating externally credible evidence that a partner, regulator, or acquirer will underwrite.

    sec.gov ↗

  • A low-liability capital structure keeps the common equity primarily exposed to pipeline outcomes rather than creditor control or balance-sheet restructuring.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Higher development spending is value-creating only if it is tied to milestone-producing trial and regulatory execution rather than unfocused overhead or repeated program resets.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Monopar’s ability to raise or retain equity capital without layering on debt is a critical operating advantage for a pre-revenue developer, but it must not come at excessive dilution to existing holders.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Management launches materially larger or more complex trials that step-change cash burn before producing interpretable efficacy or safety data.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The lead program reports efficacy, safety, durability, or tolerability data that does not support continued development.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The company takes on secured debt, royalty financing, or structured obligations backed by core intellectual property.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · Monopar Therapeutics

12 mo agonow
Trailing daily price. No thesis break has crossed here, so there is no break base rate to project.

No break has crossed Monopar Therapeutics’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.

Early warning

The break condition read on the trailing twelve months through Monopar Therapeutics’s latest quarterly report, ahead of the annual figure it is written on.

  • Operating loss, trailing 12 months

    Across all companies, this kind of early warning has happened 982 times before. Those stocks trailed the market by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 39% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Monopar Therapeutics filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-12: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Regulation FD disclosure.

    Monopar Therapeutics filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-22: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Regulation FD disclosure.

    Monopar Therapeutics filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-06-30: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Management launches materially larger or more complex trials that step-change cash burn before producing interpretable efficacy or safety data.
  • The lead program reports efficacy, safety, durability, or tolerability data that does not support continued development.
  • The company takes on secured debt, royalty financing, or structured obligations backed by core intellectual property.
  • Management repeatedly changes development priorities without delivering interpretable clinical or regulatory milestones.
  • A future equity raise occurs at a steep discount or includes warrants that create a large overhang.

MNPR news

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Financial statements

MNPR income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

MNPR: quick answers

When does Monopar Therapeutics (MNPR) report earnings next?
Monopar Therapeutics's next results are projected for February 11, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 12, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is MNPR's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 1.1M MNPR shares were sold short, 16.3% of its shares outstanding, down 2.2% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 8.8 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. MNPR short interest history
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