INTC at a glance
The past year
Chart+57.5% $59.66, close Nov 13
- From the highest close
- −57.7%
- Vs the 200-day average
- −31.7%
Short interest
History153M shares
- Of shares outstanding
- 2.88%
- Since the last report
- +2.9%
- Days to cover
- 1.2 days
- Settled
- Oct 30, 2026
Congress and officials
Trades4 trades, 90 days
- Buys / sells
- 2 / 2
- Filers
- 3
Insider buying, 7 days
FilingsNone filed this week
- Form 4s filed
- Nov 9 – Nov 15
Top investors
Funds6 of 37 funds hold it
- Maverick Capital
- 4.5%
- George Soros
- 4.0%
- Philippe Laffont
- 3.5%
- Latest 13F filings
- 6 added · 0 cut
Understand the Business
- Intel sells processors and other semiconductors mainly to computer makers, design manufacturers and cloud providers; volume, product mix and factory output drive gross profit.↗↗
- Intel Foundry offers wafer fabrication, advanced packaging and chiplet services, but nearly all current foundry capacity still supports Intel’s own product groups.↗
Why this business is different
- Intel remains a major central processing unit supplier, but it competes against AMD, Arm-based products, NVIDIA and customer-built chips in client and data-center markets.↗
- Owning fabs gives Intel direct manufacturing control, yet the same plants create heavy fixed-cost exposure when yields, supply or utilization disappoint.↗↗
What could matter next
- The NVIDIA collaboration matters if jointly developed data-center and personal-computer products ship at scale, turning Intel’s x86 franchise into more artificial-intelligence platform demand.↗
- Intel 18A and 14A need competitive yields and external interest, because future node investment depends on filling leading-edge manufacturing capacity beyond internal chips.↗↗
Why the Stock Moved
- August 2024 · Dividend suspended: Self-funded turnaround looked materially riskier. Intel guided a loss, cut spending and suspended the dividend. Liquidity preservation signaled lower earnings and higher execution risk.↗↗
- March 2025 · CEO reset: Leadership reset improved the turnaround option value. Intel named Lip-Bu Tan CEO after a board search. A product-and-foundry leader could reset execution credibility.↗↗
INTC price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Intel’s client and server processor base must remain central as customers refresh personal computers, data centers and edge systems.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Intel sells mainly to computer makers, design manufacturers and cloud providers, while Q2 2026 Intel Products revenue increased sharply. Processor demand converts into revenue when Intel has capacity because customers buy chips for systems they already ship and support.
Watch: Weak personal-computer refresh demand, server share losses or rapid Arm-based adoption would undermine this condition.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
We sell our products primarily to OEMs, ODMs and CSPs.
Open source ↗Second-quarter revenue was $16.1 billion, up 25% year-over-year (YoY).
Open source ↗Factory yields, cycle times and supply availability must keep improving, because Intel’s fabs can either protect margins or trap fixed costs.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Q2 2026 management cited volume upside from higher factory yields and improved cycle times after 2025 supply constraints. Better yields spread depreciation and process costs over more saleable chips, improving unit economics without requiring pricing power.
Watch: Renewed wafer constraints or failure to meet internal demand would weaken the earnings recovery.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
We sell our products primarily to OEMs, ODMs and CSPs.
Open source ↗Second-quarter revenue was $16.1 billion, up 25% year-over-year (YoY).
Open source ↗Intel Foundry needs external customers so leading-edge manufacturing investment is not funded only by Intel’s own processor volumes.UnclearMateriality: High
The 2025 Form 10-K says nearly all foundry capacity supports internal manufacturing and Intel 14A was designed for external customers. Third-party wafer and packaging volume would spread fixed fab costs, improve utilization and validate Intel as more than an internal manufacturer.
Watch: Failure to win significant external demand for Intel 14A would pressure future node investment plans.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
We sell our products primarily to OEMs, ODMs and CSPs.
Open source ↗The NVIDIA collaboration must become shipped products, not only validation, for Intel to participate materially in accelerated artificial intelligence systems.HoldingMateriality: High
NVIDIA and Intel announced custom data-center and personal-computer products, with NVIDIA planning a $5 billion Intel equity investment. If NVIDIA integrates Intel central processing units into its platforms, Intel can attach to artificial intelligence spending otherwise dominated by graphics processors.
Watch: Delays, limited product scope or weak customer uptake for the co-developed products would make the partnership mostly symbolic.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Intel will build NVIDIA-custom x86 CPUs that NVIDIA will integrate into its AI infrastructure platforms
Open source ↗Intel must fund fabs and research without renewed stress, because the manufacturing turnaround requires spending before customer commitments arrive.HoldingMateriality: High
Intel suspended its dividend in 2024, while Q2 2026 cash from operations improved to $7.0 billion. Lower distributions preserve investment capacity, but fixed manufacturing costs still weigh on per-share value if utilization disappoints.
Watch: Rising capital needs, weak cash from operations or additional dilutive financing would weaken this condition.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Implementing comprehensive reduction in spending, including a more than 15% headcount reduction
Open source ↗Second-quarter revenue was $16.1 billion, up 25% year-over-year (YoY).
Open source ↗AMD, Arm-based processors, NVIDIA platforms and customer-built chips must not erode Intel’s sockets faster than Intel improves products.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Intel names those companies, architectures and internally developed customer chips as major threats across client and data-center markets. Share loss would reduce factory utilization and product gross profit, making the same fab base harder to amortize.
Watch: Watch for server share losses, personal-computer design losses or hyperscaler migration to custom silicon.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
We sell our products primarily to OEMs, ODMs and CSPs.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
Loading the original research archive…
Original research
Intel’s client and server processor base must remain central as customers refresh personal computers, data centers and edge systems. Processor demand converts into revenue when Intel has capacity because customers buy chips for systems they already ship and support.
Factory yields, cycle times and supply availability must keep improving, because Intel’s fabs can either protect margins or trap fixed costs. Better yields spread depreciation and process costs over more saleable chips, improving unit economics without requiring pricing power.
Intel Foundry needs external customers so leading-edge manufacturing investment is not funded only by Intel’s own processor volumes. Third-party wafer and packaging volume would spread fixed fab costs, improve utilization and validate Intel as more than an internal manufacturer.
The NVIDIA collaboration must become shipped products, not only validation, for Intel to participate materially in accelerated artificial intelligence systems. If NVIDIA integrates Intel central processing units into its platforms, Intel can attach to artificial intelligence spending otherwise dominated by graphics processors.
Intel must fund fabs and research without renewed stress, because the manufacturing turnaround requires spending before customer commitments arrive. Lower distributions preserve investment capacity, but fixed manufacturing costs still weigh on per-share value if utilization disappoints.
AMD, Arm-based processors, NVIDIA platforms and customer-built chips must not erode Intel’s sockets faster than Intel improves products. Share loss would reduce factory utilization and product gross profit, making the same fab base harder to amortize.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
manufacturing execution keeps improving, x86 processors remain essential to AI-era computers, and external customers begin filling Intel’s costly foundry network.
Since this case
What has happened since Sep 11, 2026
The case above was written from evidence through Sep 11, 2026 and stays as written. This part is read from SEC filings and closing prices each time the page is built, so it moves as new reports are filed.
- Results
- Q3 2026, the quarter to Sep 26, 2026, reported Oct 29, 2026 (8-K ↗): revenue $16.51B, up 20.9% on the same quarter a year earlier; net income $3.32B. Over the 12 months to Sep 26, 2026: revenue $59.89B, net income -$12.03B (-20.1% of revenue).
- Share price
- No closing price is on file for the period since this case.
- Filings
- 1 8-K filing since Sep 11, 2026:
- Insiders
- Bought $9.7M on the open market in 1 transaction since Sep 11, 2026, from their Form 4 filings.
- Conditions
- Price target fell below the stock (Sep 21, 2026) and analyst downgrade (Oct 19, 2026) crossed since Sep 11, 2026. What has followed each across the market is in the Thesis-Break panel.
Read from SEC filings and closing prices through Nov 15, 2026. A filing made today can take up to about four hours to appear here.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Intel Corp
Where the evidence on Intel disagrees: Strengthening on the latest evidence (Sep 11, 2026). Of its 6 thesis points, 2 strengthening, 3 holding and 1 unclear.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Intel’s client and server processor base must remain central as customers refresh personal computers, data centers and edge systems.
Factory yields, cycle times and supply availability must keep improving, because Intel’s fabs can either protect margins or trap fixed costs.
The NVIDIA collaboration must become shipped products, not only validation, for Intel to participate materially in accelerated artificial intelligence systems.
Intel must fund fabs and research without renewed stress, because the manufacturing turnaround requires spending before customer commitments arrive.
AMD, Arm-based processors, NVIDIA platforms and customer-built chips must not erode Intel’s sockets faster than Intel improves products.
Bear case: what the evidence questions
Intel Foundry needs external customers so leading-edge manufacturing investment is not funded only by Intel’s own processor volumes.
Company research
Research on Intel
- Reporting · Why Is Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) Stock Up 226% This Year?
Revenue and margins recovered as Intel 18A ramped, but external foundry sales remain small and a major stock offering added dilution.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Intel’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Intel, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Intel.
- Analyst downgradecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 12,641 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
- Price target fell below the stockcondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 1,809 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
Early warning
The break condition read on the trailing twelve months through Intel’s latest quarterly report, ahead of the annual figure it is written on.
- Operating loss, trailing 12 months
Across all companies, this kind of early warning has happened 982 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 39% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
Several kinds of break have stacked on Intel at once. A cluster is a stronger read than any one signal alone.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- SupportiveQ2 turned demand into stronger earnings evidence
Intel reported Q2 revenue up 25% year over year, non-GAAP earnings per share of $0.42 and Q3 non-GAAP earnings guidance of $0.38. Management tied the upside to demand, yields and cycle times.
- MixedGAAP losses remained a contradiction
Intel generated $7.0 billion in operating cash flow in Q2, but GAAP earnings per share were still negative. That keeps the turnaround partly dependent on sustained utilization and cost discipline.
- MixedQ1 improved but still showed losses
Intel reported first-quarter revenue up 7% year over year and guided Q2 revenue above Q1, but GAAP earnings per share remained negative. Demand was improving, while full profit recovery was not yet visible.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Weak personal-computer refresh demand, server share losses or rapid Arm-based adoption would undermine this condition.
- Renewed wafer constraints or failure to meet internal demand would weaken the earnings recovery.
- Failure to win significant external demand for Intel 14A would pressure future node investment plans.
- Delays, limited product scope or weak customer uptake for the co-developed products would make the partnership mostly symbolic.
- Rising capital needs, weak cash from operations or additional dilutive financing would weaken this condition.
- Watch for server share losses, personal-computer design losses or hyperscaler migration to custom silicon.
INTC news
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Financial statements
INTC income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
INTC: quick answers
- When does Intel (INTC) report earnings next?
- Intel's next results are projected for January 21, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 29, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is INTC's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 153M INTC shares were sold short, 2.88% of its shares outstanding, up 2.9% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 1.2 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. INTC short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded INTC?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 4 trades in INTC by 3 filers: 2 purchases and 2 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed INTC trade
- Which well-known investors own INTC?
- 6 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported INTC shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Maverick Capital, 4.5%; Soros Fund Management (George Soros), 4.0%; Coatue Management (Philippe Laffont), 3.5%. Fund portfolios
INTC in well-known investors’ portfolios
6 of 37 funds reported INTC shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maverick Capital | 4.5% | $512M | +22.5% | Q2 2026 |
| George SorosSoros Fund Management | 4.0% | $340M | +2,730% | Q3 2026 |
| Philippe LaffontCoatue Management | 3.5% | $1.7B | New | Q2 2026 |
| Chase ColemanTiger Global Management | 2.5% | $594M | +159.5% | Q2 2026 |
| Whale Rock Capital | 0.41% | $47.4M | +51.6% | Q3 2026 |
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.02% | $4.5M | New | Q2 2026 |

