CRDO at a glance
The past year
Chart−18.0% $131.50, close Nov 13
- From the highest close
- −56.5%
- Vs the 200-day average
- −27.3%
Short interest
History9.8M shares
- Of shares outstanding
- 5.23%
- Since the last report
- +1.6%
- Days to cover
- 1.2 days
- Settled
- Oct 30, 2026
Congress and officials
Trades3 trades, 90 days
- Buys / sells
- 1 / 2
- Filers
- 2
Insider buying, 7 days
FilingsNone filed this week
- Form 4s filed
- Nov 8 – Nov 14
Top investors
Funds2 of 37 funds hold it
- Ray Dalio
- 0.2%
- Maverick Capital
- 0.0%
- Latest 13F filings
- 1 added · 1 cut
Understand the Business
- Credo makes money by shipping Active Electrical Cables and integrated-circuit connectivity products mainly to hyperscalers, NeoClouds and cloud infrastructure providers building AI and machine-learning infrastructure.↗
- Revenue rises when customer designs become volume shipments. Q2 FY2027 gross-margin guidance is 62.9%-64.9% on a GAAP basis, versus 67%-69% excluding specified costs.↗↗
Why this business is different
- Credo spans copper and optical links, including Active Electrical Cables, retimers, optical processors and chiplets. That range gives customers several ways to solve data-center connectivity problems.↗↗
- Its dependence on large infrastructure buyers cuts both ways: hyperscalers can scale Credo quickly, but delayed ramps, lost designs or tougher purchasing terms would hit revenue fast.↗↗
What could matter next
- The next test is whether Q2 FY2027 revenue reaches the $525 million-$535 million outlook while GAAP profitability withstands the wider gap from adjusted earnings.↗
Why the Stock Moved
- Dec 2024 · AI demand inflection: Expectations shifted from modest recovery to an AI-driven demand inflection. On December 2, 2024, management said AI deployments were driving demand above its initial expectations. That made large-scale hyperscaler adoption a more credible earnings path.↗↗
- Sep 2025 · Profitable hyperscaler ramp: Expectations moved from fast growth to profitable hyperscaler scaling. On September 3, 2025, Credo reported 31% sequential revenue growth and GAAP net income. Profitability reduced the risk that growth depended on weak pricing or structurally heavy spending.↗↗
- Feb 2026 · Guidance outrun: Revenue expectations jumped above already elevated guidance. February 2026 preliminary Q3 revenue was $404 million-$408 million, versus prior guidance of $335 million-$345 million. That enlarged the expected earnings base, subject to final closing adjustments.↗↗
CRDO price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Credo must keep converting hyperscaler partnerships into repeat volume shipments.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Credo says it sells to hyperscalers, NeoClouds and other cloud infrastructure providers, and Q1 FY2026 growth was driven by hyperscaler and key-customer partnerships. Credo’s revenue model depends on winning sockets in large AI clusters, then shipping more connectivity as those clusters scale.
Watch: Watch for fewer hyperscaler design wins, delayed customer ramps, or guidance that stops implying sequential AI infrastructure growth.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Customer routes include hyperscalers and other cloud operators.
Open source ↗Management linked the fiscal 2026 ramp to major customer relationships.
Open source ↗Active Electrical Cable and integrated-circuit demand must remain core growth engines, not one-generation architecture wins.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Management said fiscal 2025 demand was greater than initially projected because of AI deployments, then cited continued growth in Active Electrical Cable and integrated circuit franchises. Active Electrical Cables and integrated circuits turn AI-rack connectivity needs into shipments. Lost adoption would reduce sales and the revenue available to fund engineering.
Watch: Watch for slower Active Electrical Cable orders, customer substitution toward other links, or product revenue missing guidance.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Management attributed unexpectedly strong demand to AI deployment.
Open source ↗Management expected further expansion of its cable and chip businesses.
Open source ↗Margins must remain high enough for revenue growth to become durable earnings, not just sales volume.WeakeningMateriality: High
GAAP gross margin fell from 67.4% in Q1 FY2026 to 64.5% in Q1 FY2027. Q2 FY2027 guidance is 62.9%-64.9% GAAP versus 67%-69% non-GAAP. Adjusted margins remain strong, but acquired-intangible amortization and stock compensation widen the gap from GAAP profit. Revenue growth must cover those costs as well as engineering spending.
Watch: Watch GAAP and adjusted margins separately, including acquired-intangible amortization and stock compensation, as revenue expands.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Q1 fiscal 2026 GAAP margin was 67.4%; adjusted margin was 67.6%.
Open source ↗Q2 fiscal 2027 outlook separates 62.9%-64.9% GAAP margin from 67%-69% adjusted margin.
Open source ↗The customer base needs to broaden while existing hyperscaler ramps continue.HoldingMateriality: High
The FY2026 10-K says customers can cancel, change or delay purchase orders, and larger customers can disproportionately affect revenue. Credo depends on large infrastructure customers; that can scale fast, but delayed ramps or lost designs can reset revenue expectations abruptly.
Watch: Watch for order pauses, delayed customer ramps, or disclosures showing growth remains tied to too few infrastructure buyers.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Most sales lack binding long-term minimum-purchase commitments.
Open source ↗Credo must keep matching customer bandwidth, power, and reliability requirements before competing designs lock in.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Credo sells hyperscaler connectivity products, and its Q1 FY2026 release described products supporting speeds up to 1.6 terabits per second. Credo’s products compete in fast-changing connectivity designs, so technology cadence and qualification timing protect future design wins.
Watch: Watch for missed 1.6-terabit roadmaps, customer qualification delays, or competing designs locking in before Credo products qualify.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
The disclosed product range supports connectivity speeds through 1.6 terabits per second.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Credo must keep converting hyperscaler partnerships into repeat volume shipments. Credo’s revenue model depends on winning sockets in large AI clusters, then shipping more connectivity as those clusters scale.
Active Electrical Cable and integrated-circuit demand must remain core growth engines, not one-generation architecture wins. Active Electrical Cables and integrated circuits turn AI-rack connectivity needs into shipments. Lost adoption would reduce sales and the revenue available to fund engineering.
Margins must remain high enough for revenue growth to become durable earnings, not just sales volume. Adjusted margins remain strong, but acquired-intangible amortization and stock compensation widen the gap from GAAP profit. Revenue growth must cover those costs as well as engineering spending.
The customer base needs to broaden while existing hyperscaler ramps continue. Credo depends on large infrastructure customers; that can scale fast, but delayed ramps or lost designs can reset revenue expectations abruptly.
Credo must keep matching customer bandwidth, power, and reliability requirements before competing designs lock in. Credo’s products compete in fast-changing connectivity designs, so technology cadence and qualification timing protect future design wins.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
hyperscale AI data centers keep adopting its connectivity products, customer ramps broaden, and high gross margins continue turning revenue growth into GAAP earnings.
Since this case
What has happened since Sep 29, 2026
The case above was written from evidence through Sep 29, 2026 and stays as written. This part is read from SEC filings and closing prices each time the page is built, so it moves as new reports are filed.
- Results
- No results reported since this case, as of this reading. The next report is expected around Dec 1, 2026, estimated from the company’s filing pattern.
- Share price
- -31.6% since Sep 29, 2026, from $192.35 to $131.50 on Nov 13, 2026. The stock alone, not measured against other companies.
- Filings
- No 8-K or 6-K filed since Sep 29, 2026, as of this reading.
- Insiders
- At least 40 insider transactions reported since Sep 29, 2026, more than this section totals. Every one is in the SEC’s list of its Form 4 filings ↗.
- Conditions
- None of the conditions the Thesis-Break Engine checks has crossed on Credo Technology Group Holding since Sep 29, 2026.
Read from SEC filings and closing prices through Nov 14, 2026. A filing made today can take up to about four hours to appear here.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd
Where the evidence on Credo Technology Group Holding disagrees: Strengthening on the latest evidence (Sep 29, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 2 strengthening, 2 holding and 1 weakening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Credo must keep converting hyperscaler partnerships into repeat volume shipments.
Active Electrical Cable and integrated-circuit demand must remain core growth engines, not one-generation architecture wins.
The customer base needs to broaden while existing hyperscaler ramps continue.
Credo must keep matching customer bandwidth, power, and reliability requirements before competing designs lock in.
Bear case: what the evidence questions
Margins must remain high enough for revenue growth to become durable earnings, not just sales volume.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Credo Technology Group Holding’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Credo Technology Group Holding, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Credo Technology Group Holding.
- Insider-selling clustercondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 9,137 times before. Those stocks beat comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 30% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- SupportiveLatest quarter kept revenue stepping higher
Credo reported Q1 FY2027 revenue of $479.0 million and guided Q2 to $525 million-$535 million. GAAP gross margin was 64.5%, versus 68.0% adjusted, making the cost gap a key counterweight to growth.
- SupportiveQ3 FY2026 demand outran prior guidance
Credo’s preliminary Q3 FY2026 revenue estimate of $404 million-$408 million exceeded its prior $335 million-$345 million guidance. The February update remained unaudited and subject to final adjustments.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Watch for fewer hyperscaler design wins, delayed customer ramps, or guidance that stops implying sequential AI infrastructure growth.
- Watch for slower Active Electrical Cable orders, customer substitution toward other links, or product revenue missing guidance.
- Watch GAAP and adjusted margins separately, including acquired-intangible amortization and stock compensation, as revenue expands.
- Watch for order pauses, delayed customer ramps, or disclosures showing growth remains tied to too few infrastructure buyers.
- Watch for missed 1.6-terabit roadmaps, customer qualification delays, or competing designs locking in before Credo products qualify.
CRDO news
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Financial statements
CRDO income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
CRDO: quick answers
- When does Credo Technology Group Holding (CRDO) report earnings next?
- Credo Technology Group Holding's next results are projected for December 1, 2026, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on September 1, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is CRDO's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 9.8M CRDO shares were sold short, 5.23% of its shares outstanding, up 1.6% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 1.2 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. CRDO short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded CRDO?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 3 trades in CRDO by 2 filers: 1 purchase and 2 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed CRDO trade
- Which well-known investors own CRDO?
- 2 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported CRDO shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.2%; Maverick Capital, 0.0%. Fund portfolios
CRDO in well-known investors’ portfolios
2 of 37 funds reported CRDO shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.20% | $48.7M | −82.6% | Q2 2026 |
| Maverick Capital | 0.01% | $790K | New | Q2 2026 |