Warner Music Group
WMGNASDAQUSD
- — Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- — Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- — Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $31.79 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $31.13–$31.89 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 1.4M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 10, 4:00 PM ET.
- Nov 19 projected Projected for 2026-11-19 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $23.34–$35.42 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own WMG if you believe the 2025 profit and cash-flow slump reverses and Warner Music Group can turn its growing revenue base back into rising operating income despite a highly levered balance sheet.
WMG price history
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INVESTMENT THESIS
What must happen next
WMG’s revenue growth will remain positive and reaccelerate without requiring another profit decline.HoldingMateriality: High
FY2026 revenue growth exceeds FY2025’s growth rate and operating income also increases year over year. This is a load-bearing condition for Warner Music Group's investment case.
Watch: FY2026 revenue is flat/down, or revenue grows while operating income declines again.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
FY2026 revenue growth exceeds FY2025’s growth rate and operating income also increases year over year.
Open source ↗Gross profit will resume growing with revenue rather than staying nearly flat as it did in FY2025.HoldingMateriality: High
FY2026 gross profit grows at least in line with revenue, producing a stable or higher gross margin. This is a load-bearing condition for Warner Music Group's investment case.
Watch: Another annual report shows revenue growth but gross profit flat or down.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
FY2026 gross profit grows at least in line with revenue, producing a stable or higher gross margin.
Open source ↗Operating income will rebound from the FY2025 decline, showing that cost pressure or investment spending is not permanently eroding profitability.HoldingMateriality: Medium
FY2026 operating income rises year over year and operating margin improves from FY2025. This is a load-bearing condition for Warner Music Group's investment case.
Watch: FY2026 operating income declines again or operating margin compresses further.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
FY2026 operating income rises year over year and operating margin improves from FY2025.
Open source ↗Operating cash flow will stabilize and continue to cover reported net income, preserving financial flexibility.HoldingMateriality: Medium
FY2026 operating cash flow grows year over year and remains above net income. This is a load-bearing condition for Warner Music Group's investment case.
Watch: FY2026 operating cash flow falls again or drops below net income.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
FY2026 operating cash flow grows year over year and remains above net income.
Open source ↗Balance-sheet risk will not worsen materially despite liabilities remaining large relative to assets and cash.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Future filings show liabilities flat/down or growing slower than assets, with cash stable or higher. This is a load-bearing condition for Warner Music Group's investment case.
Watch: Liabilities rise again while cash or equity falls, increasing dependence on refinancing or external capital.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Future filings show liabilities flat/down or growing slower than assets, with cash stable or higher.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
WMG’s revenue growth will remain positive and reaccelerate without requiring another profit decline. This is a load-bearing condition for Warner Music Group's investment case.
Gross profit will resume growing with revenue rather than staying nearly flat as it did in FY2025. This is a load-bearing condition for Warner Music Group's investment case.
Operating income will rebound from the FY2025 decline, showing that cost pressure or investment spending is not permanently eroding profitability. This is a load-bearing condition for Warner Music Group's investment case.
Operating cash flow will stabilize and continue to cover reported net income, preserving financial flexibility. This is a load-bearing condition for Warner Music Group's investment case.
Balance-sheet risk will not worsen materially despite liabilities remaining large relative to assets and cash. This is a load-bearing condition for Warner Music Group's investment case.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
you believe the 2025 profit and cash-flow slump reverses and Warner Music Group can turn its growing revenue base back into rising operating income despite a highly levered balance sheet.
BULL CASE / BEAR CASE
Bull case and bear case for Warner Music Group
Where the evidence on Warner Music Group stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 11, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 5 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
WMG’s revenue growth will remain positive and reaccelerate without requiring another profit decline.
Gross profit will resume growing with revenue rather than staying nearly flat as it did in FY2025.
Operating income will rebound from the FY2025 decline, showing that cost pressure or investment spending is not permanently eroding profitability.
Operating cash flow will stabilize and continue to cover reported net income, preserving financial flexibility.
Balance-sheet risk will not worsen materially despite liabilities remaining large relative to assets and cash.
Bear case: what would count against it
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Warner Music Group’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Warner Music Group, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Warner Music Group.
- CEO / officer changecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 16,849 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 2% over the next six months, and 38% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MIXEDOther material event.
Warner Music Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-09: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MIXEDEntered a material definitive agreement.
Warner Music Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-25: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MIXEDDirector or principal officer change.
Warner Music Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-22: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
RISKS / FALSIFIERS
What could break the thesis
- FY2026 revenue is flat/down, or revenue grows while operating income declines again.
- Another annual report shows revenue growth but gross profit flat or down.
- FY2026 operating income declines again or operating margin compresses further.
- FY2026 operating cash flow falls again or drops below net income.
- Liabilities rise again while cash or equity falls, increasing dependence on refinancing or external capital.
WMG news
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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
WMG income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
WMG: quick answers
- When does Warner Music Group (WMG) report earnings next?
- Warner Music Group's next results are projected for November 19, 2026, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on August 5, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is WMG's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 7.3M WMG shares were sold short, down 27.6% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.4 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. WMG short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded WMG?
- 1 trade in WMG has been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed WMG trade