Simon Property Group
SPGNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $234.48 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $233.09–$235.37 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 1.2M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 1 projected Projected for 2027-02-01 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $177.88–$238.50 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own SPG if Simon Property Group (SPG) creates durable value by owning and operating a concentrated portfolio of dominant, necessity/experience-oriented retail properties whose premium locations, tenant mix and scale convert stable mall traffic into resilient rents, high.
SPG price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
SPG’s premium, concentrated portfolio and re‑leasing pricing power will keep net operating income converting into stable or rising operating cash flow, supporting dividends and reinvestment.StrengtheningMateriality: High
operating_cash_flow rose to 4,136,551,000 USD in FY2025 from 3,814,655,000 USD in FY2024 and ~3.93B in FY2023, showing recovery and expansion into 2025 (operating_cash_flow). If true, owners get predictable cash returns and capital for redevelopments; if false, distributions and asset values are at risk.
Watch: Widespread tenant credit deterioration or multiple large national retailers exiting malls (reducing occupancy and re‑letting leverage).
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
operating_cash_flow rose to 4,136,551,000 USD in FY2025 from 3,814,655,000 USD in FY2024 and ~3.93B in FY2023, showing recovery and expansion.
Open source ↗Scale and ownership of dominant, top‑market malls let SPG extract better rents and occupancy than regional peers, driving revenue growth and insulating realized rents from weaker malls.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Revenue trended up from 5,291,447,000 USD (FY2022) to 5,658,836,000 USD (FY2023) to 5,963,798,000 USD (FY2024) and 6,364,505,000 USD (FY2025), indicating persistent top‑line expansion (revenue). Sustained pricing power preserves revenue growth and valuation multiples; loss of it forces revenue and valuation compression.
Watch: Retailers shift national store strategies away from mall footprints (reducing demand for premium in‑place GLA).
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Revenue trended up from 5,291,447,000 USD (FY2022) to 5,658,836,000 USD (FY2023) to 5,963,798,000 USD (FY2024) and 6,364,505,000 USD (FY2025), indicating.
Open source ↗SPG’s ability to redevelop, re‑tenant and realize higher per‑square‑foot economics at its top assets preserves operating income margins even as retail mixes shift.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Operating income increased from 2,583,553,000 USD (FY2022) to 2,807,022,000 USD (FY2023) to 3,092,796,000 USD (FY2024) and 3,175,396,000 USD (FY2025), showing rising absolute operating income alongside revenue growth (operating_income). If redevelopment consistently raises NOI per square foot, margins and valuation are sustained; if redevelopments are cash‑consuming or fail to boost rents, margins fall and returns suffer.
Watch: Large capital projects that fail to achieve projected lease rates or take longer to stabilize occupancy, raising next‑year operating expenses.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating income increased from 2,583,553,000 USD (FY2022) to 2,807,022,000 USD (FY2023) to 3,092,796,000 USD (FY2024) and 3,175,396,000 USD (FY2025), showing.
Open source ↗Management’s capital allocation (selective asset sales, JV monetizations, and debt management) can grow diluted EPS faster than NOI growth by returning capital and avoiding excessive equity issuance.HoldingMateriality: Medium
EPS diluted rose materially to 14.17 USD in FY2025 from 7.26 USD in FY2024 and ~6.98 USD in FY2023, consistent with large per‑share earnings improvement (eps_diluted). If true, EPS and dividend per share compound faster than asset cash flows alone, benefiting shareholders; if false, dilution or poor deals erase per-share gains.
Watch: Heavy equity issuance to fund acquisitions or cover cash needs, or large one‑time gains in FY2025 that prove non‑recurring (reducing sustainable EPS).
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
EPS diluted rose materially to 14.17 USD in FY2025 from 7.26 USD in FY2024 and ~6.98 USD in FY2023, consistent.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
SPG’s premium, concentrated portfolio and re‑leasing pricing power will keep net operating income converting into stable or rising operating cash flow, supporting dividends and reinvestment. If true, owners get predictable cash returns and capital for redevelopments; if false, distributions and asset values are at risk.
Scale and ownership of dominant, top‑market malls let SPG extract better rents and occupancy than regional peers, driving revenue growth and insulating realized rents from weaker malls. Sustained pricing power preserves revenue growth and valuation multiples; loss of it forces revenue and valuation compression.
SPG’s ability to redevelop, re‑tenant and realize higher per‑square‑foot economics at its top assets preserves operating income margins even as retail mixes shift. If redevelopment consistently raises NOI per square foot, margins and valuation are sustained; if redevelopments are cash‑consuming or fail to boost rents, margins fall and returns suffer.
Management’s capital allocation (selective asset sales, JV monetizations, and debt management) can grow diluted EPS faster than NOI growth by returning capital and avoiding excessive equity issuance. If true, EPS and dividend per share compound faster than asset cash flows alone, benefiting shareholders; if false, dilution or poor deals erase per-share gains.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Simon Property Group (SPG) creates durable value by owning and operating a concentrated portfolio of dominant, necessity/experience-oriented retail properties whose premium locations, tenant mix and scale convert stable mall traffic into resilient rents, high.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Simon Property Group
Where the evidence on Simon Property Group stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 4, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 1 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
SPG’s premium, concentrated portfolio and re‑leasing pricing power will keep net operating income converting into stable or rising operating cash flow, supporting dividends and reinvestment.
Scale and ownership of dominant, top‑market malls let SPG extract better rents and occupancy than regional peers, driving revenue growth and insulating realized rents from weaker malls.
SPG’s ability to redevelop, re‑tenant and realize higher per‑square‑foot economics at its top assets preserves operating income margins even as retail mixes shift.
Management’s capital allocation (selective asset sales, JV monetizations, and debt management) can grow diluted EPS faster than NOI growth by returning capital and avoiding excessive equity issuance.
Bear case: what would count against it
Widespread tenant credit deterioration or multiple large national retailers exiting malls (reducing occupancy and re‑letting leverage).
Retailers shift national store strategies away from mall footprints (reducing demand for premium in‑place GLA).
Large capital projects that fail to achieve projected lease rates or take longer to stabilize occupancy, raising next‑year operating expenses.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Simon Property Group’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Simon Property Group, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Simon Property Group.
- Price target fell below the stockcondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 1,809 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Simon Property Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-10: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Simon Property Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-05-11: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Widespread tenant credit deterioration or multiple large national retailers exiting malls (reducing occupancy and re‑letting leverage).
- Retailers shift national store strategies away from mall footprints (reducing demand for premium in‑place GLA).
- Large capital projects that fail to achieve projected lease rates or take longer to stabilize occupancy, raising next‑year operating expenses.
- Heavy equity issuance to fund acquisitions or cover cash needs, or large one‑time gains in FY2025 that prove non‑recurring (reducing sustainable EPS).
SPG news
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Financial statements
SPG income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
SPG: quick answers
- When does Simon Property Group (SPG) report earnings next?
- Simon Property Group's next results are projected for February 1, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 5, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is SPG's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 10.1M SPG shares were sold short, up 9.7% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 8.7 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. SPG short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded SPG?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 2 trades in SPG by 1 filer: 1 purchase and 1 sale. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed SPG trade