Palo Alto Networks
PANWNASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $334.47 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $314.79–$326.34 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 6.0M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 12, 4:00 PM ET.
- Nov 18 projected Projected for 2026-11-18 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $139.57–$432.33 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
- Customers buy firewalls, software licenses, cloud subscriptions, support and incident-response services to secure networks, cloud workloads, employees, identities and AI applications across enterprises.↗
- The economic core is subscription and support renewal: these were most fiscal 2026 revenue, and next-generation security annual recurring revenue gives visibility and cross-sell opportunities.↗↗
Why this business is different
- Palo Alto’s advantage is breadth: one vendor can combine network security, security operations, cloud protection and CyberArk identity controls into an integrated architecture.↗↗
- That breadth also creates execution risk because acquisitions, integration costs and bundled cloud-provider security tools can weaken the margin and consolidation benefits.↗
What could matter next
- CyberArk makes identity security the newest platform test; the question is whether integration expands customer spending faster than it adds complexity and cost.↗↗
- AI-app and agent security could widen Palo Alto’s opportunity, but major cloud providers may bundle native security, identity and observability tools at low incremental cost.↗↗
Why the Stock Moved
- February 2024 · Platformization reset: Expected billings moved from high-teens growth to a slower platformization transition. On February 20, 2024, FY2024 billings guidance was updated to 10%–11% growth. Lower billings reduced near-term revenue visibility while management pushed consolidation.↗↗
- August 2025 · Recurring platform proof: The platformization case shifted toward durable recurring consolidation demand. On August 18, 2025, next-generation security annual recurring revenue reached $5.6 billion, up 32%. That metric tied customer adoption to future subscription and support revenue.↗↗
- June 2026 · Acquired recurring revenue scaled: CyberArk shifted from deal-closing risk toward a larger identity-platform integration test. On June 2, 2026, CyberArk and Chronosphere contributed $1.6 billion of next-generation security annual recurring revenue. Acquired scale widened the platform, but GAAP losses kept earnings quality in focus.↗↗
The core investment thesis
Own PANW if large enterprises keep consolidating security spending onto Palo Alto’s integrated platforms and recurring revenue growth converts into durable cash margins after recent acquisitions.
PANW price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Customers must keep replacing fragmented security tools with Palo Alto platforms so recurring contracts grow faster than mature firewall refresh cycles.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Next-generation security annual recurring revenue reached $9.10 billion in Q4 FY2026, after $8.1 billion in Q3 FY2026. Recurring platform contracts create better revenue visibility and more opportunities to sell additional modules into the same security architecture.
Watch: Watch for slowing next-generation security annual recurring revenue growth or weaker remaining performance obligations despite new platform launches.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Fiscal year 2026 adjusted free cash flow margin was 38.4%.
Open source ↗This includes $1.6 billion in NGS ARR from CyberArk and Chronosphere.
Open source ↗CyberArk must add identity-security spending without disrupting existing customers or turning the company into an acquisition-integration story.HoldingMateriality: High
CyberArk closed on February 11, 2026, and Q3 recurring revenue included $1.6 billion from CyberArk and Chronosphere. Identity broadens Palo Alto’s platform, but integration costs and customer retention determine whether acquired scale becomes higher long-term earnings.
Watch: Watch for slower identity growth, customer disruption, higher integration expense or management lowering synergy expectations.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
establishing Identity Security as a core pillar of its platformization strategy
Open source ↗This includes $1.6 billion in NGS ARR from CyberArk and Chronosphere.
Open source ↗The subscription and support base must keep renewing on attractive terms because it supplies most revenue and delays churn visibility.HoldingMateriality: High
FY2026 product revenue was 19.9% of total revenue, and support is typically bought and renewed for one year or longer. If renewals weaken, reported revenue may lag the problem while future recognized revenue and cash collections deteriorate.
Watch: Watch renewal terms, customer satisfaction, contract duration, outages, support quality and reductions in customer spending levels.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Our platformization strategy combines various products and services into a tightly integrated architecture
Open source ↗Scale must translate into GAAP profitability as well as adjusted cash margins after the recent acquisition-heavy expansion.WeakeningMateriality: High
FY2026 adjusted free cash flow margin was 38.4%, but Q4 GAAP net loss replaced year-earlier GAAP net income. Adjusted cash generation supports value, but weaker GAAP earnings can signal that integration, amortization or other costs are consuming more of the economics.
Watch: Watch GAAP operating income, GAAP net income, adjusted free cash flow margin, acquisition-related payments and amortization of acquired intangibles.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Fiscal year 2026 adjusted free cash flow margin was 38.4%.
Open source ↗Cloud platform providers must not make Palo Alto’s cloud, observability or AI-security modules easier to replace.UnclearMateriality: Medium
The FY2026 10-K says major cloud providers increasingly offer native security, identity and observability capabilities at low or no incremental cost. Bundled alternatives could pressure pricing, reduce win rates and weaken the vendor-consolidation argument that supports platformization.
Watch: Watch customer preference for native cloud tools, pricing concessions, lower cloud-security growth or reduced attach rates.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Our platformization strategy combines various products and services into a tightly integrated architecture
Open source ↗The firewall franchise must remain a productive entry point for selling software security services across hybrid networks and cloud environments.HoldingMateriality: Medium
FY2026 product revenue came from hardware products, primarily machine-learning-powered next-generation firewalls, and software licenses. A healthy installed base helps Palo Alto attach cloud-delivered security services and management software without starting every sale from zero.
Watch: Watch hardware product demand, product gross margin, customer refresh behavior and preference for native cloud security controls.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Our platformization strategy combines various products and services into a tightly integrated architecture
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Customers must keep replacing fragmented security tools with Palo Alto platforms so recurring contracts grow faster than mature firewall refresh cycles. Recurring platform contracts create better revenue visibility and more opportunities to sell additional modules into the same security architecture.
CyberArk must add identity-security spending without disrupting existing customers or turning the company into an acquisition-integration story. Identity broadens Palo Alto’s platform, but integration costs and customer retention determine whether acquired scale becomes higher long-term earnings.
The subscription and support base must keep renewing on attractive terms because it supplies most revenue and delays churn visibility. If renewals weaken, reported revenue may lag the problem while future recognized revenue and cash collections deteriorate.
Scale must translate into GAAP profitability as well as adjusted cash margins after the recent acquisition-heavy expansion. Adjusted cash generation supports value, but weaker GAAP earnings can signal that integration, amortization or other costs are consuming more of the economics.
Cloud platform providers must not make Palo Alto’s cloud, observability or AI-security modules easier to replace. Bundled alternatives could pressure pricing, reduce win rates and weaken the vendor-consolidation argument that supports platformization.
The firewall franchise must remain a productive entry point for selling software security services across hybrid networks and cloud environments. A healthy installed base helps Palo Alto attach cloud-delivered security services and management software without starting every sale from zero.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
large enterprises keep consolidating security spending onto Palo Alto’s integrated platforms and recurring revenue growth converts into durable cash margins after recent acquisitions.
Since this case
What has happened since Sep 11, 2026
The case above was written from evidence through Sep 11, 2026 and stays as written. This part is read from SEC filings and closing prices each time the page is built, so it moves as new reports are filed.
- Results
- No results reported since this case, as of this reading. The next report is expected around Nov 18, 2026, estimated from the company’s filing pattern.
- Share price
- -2.4% since Sep 11, 2026, from $330.65 to $322.60 on Nov 12, 2026. The stock alone, not measured against other companies.
- Filings
- No 8-K or 6-K filed since Sep 11, 2026, as of this reading.
- Insiders
- At least 40 insider transactions reported since Sep 11, 2026, more than this section totals. Every one is in the SEC’s list of its Form 4 filings ↗.
- Conditions
- Insider-selling cluster (Sep 14, 2026), price target fell below the stock (Oct 6, 2026) and sharp drawdown (Nov 5, 2026) crossed since Sep 11, 2026. What has followed each across the market is in the Thesis-Break panel.
Read from SEC filings and closing prices through Nov 12, 2026. A filing made today can take up to about four hours to appear here.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Palo Alto Networks Inc
Where the evidence on Palo Alto Networks disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Sep 11, 2026). Of its 6 thesis points, 1 strengthening, 3 holding, 1 weakening and 1 unclear.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Customers must keep replacing fragmented security tools with Palo Alto platforms so recurring contracts grow faster than mature firewall refresh cycles.
CyberArk must add identity-security spending without disrupting existing customers or turning the company into an acquisition-integration story.
The subscription and support base must keep renewing on attractive terms because it supplies most revenue and delays churn visibility.
The firewall franchise must remain a productive entry point for selling software security services across hybrid networks and cloud environments.
Bear case: what the evidence questions
Scale must translate into GAAP profitability as well as adjusted cash margins after the recent acquisition-heavy expansion.
Cloud platform providers must not make Palo Alto’s cloud, observability or AI-security modules easier to replace.
Company research
Research on Palo Alto Networks
- Reporting · Why Is Palo Alto Networks, Inc. (NASDAQ: PANW) Stock Up 107% This Year?
The cybersecurity platform doubled as recurring revenue and backlog expanded, but acquired growth, weaker GAAP profit and dilution set the next test.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Palo Alto Networks’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Palo Alto Networks, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Palo Alto Networks.
- Sharp drawdowncondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 15,428 times before. Those stocks beat comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
- Price target fell below the stockcondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 1,809 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
- Insider-selling clustercondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 9,137 times before. Those stocks beat comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 30% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
Several kinds of break have stacked on Palo Alto Networks at once. A cluster is a stronger read than any one signal alone.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedQ4 FY2026 confirmed scale but not clean GAAP profitability
Revenue, annual recurring revenue and remaining performance obligations grew strongly in Q4, while GAAP net loss and acquisition-related adjustments showed that recent expansion still carries earnings-quality noise.
- MixedConsole acquisition added another AI-agent workflow bet
Palo Alto acquired Console to expand Cortex with AI-native agentic workflows, increasing its security-operations ambition while adding another integration task.
- SupportiveQ3 FY2026 showed new platforms contributing materially
Q3 results included $388 million of revenue and $1.6 billion of annual recurring revenue from CyberArk and Chronosphere, making organic versus acquired momentum important to separate.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Watch for slowing next-generation security annual recurring revenue growth or weaker remaining performance obligations despite new platform launches.
- Watch for slower identity growth, customer disruption, higher integration expense or management lowering synergy expectations.
- Watch renewal terms, customer satisfaction, contract duration, outages, support quality and reductions in customer spending levels.
- Watch GAAP operating income, GAAP net income, adjusted free cash flow margin, acquisition-related payments and amortization of acquired intangibles.
- Watch customer preference for native cloud tools, pricing concessions, lower cloud-security growth or reduced attach rates.
- Watch hardware product demand, product gross margin, customer refresh behavior and preference for native cloud security controls.
PANW news
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Financial statements
PANW income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
PANW: quick answers
- When does Palo Alto Networks (PANW) report earnings next?
- Palo Alto Networks's next results are projected for November 18, 2026, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on September 1, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is PANW's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 20.6M PANW shares were sold short, 2.52% of its shares outstanding, down 3.0% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.5 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. PANW short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded PANW?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 4 trades in PANW by 1 filer: 2 purchases and 2 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed PANW trade
- Which well-known investors own PANW?
- 2 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported PANW shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Duquesne Family Office (Stanley Druckenmiller), 0.8%; Maverick Capital, 0.0%. Fund portfolios
PANW in well-known investors’ portfolios
2 of 37 funds reported PANW shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stanley DruckenmillerDuquesne Family Office | 0.76% | $39.8M | New | Q2 2026 |
| Maverick Capital | 0.01% | $1.2M | New | Q2 2026 |