Nasdaq
NDAQNASDAQUSD
- — Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- — Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- — Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $110.02 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $109.50–$110.24 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 810.4K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 11:57 AM ET.
- Jan 28 projected Projected for 2027-01-28 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $76.55–$111.45 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own NDAQ if Nasdaq is a technology-first marketplace operator that turns proprietary exchange data, recurring software (Adenza/Verafin) and transaction flow into high-margin, cash-generative subscription and services revenue with network effects that support pricing power.
NDAQ price history
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INVESTMENT THESIS
What must happen next
Nasdaq's proprietary market data and exchange services constitute a sticky, high-margin moat whose pricing power and network effects will sustain gross-profit durability and revenue resilience.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Gross profit increased from $4,649,000,000 (FY2024) to $5,249,000,000 (FY2025), showing expanding absolute gross profitability. If true, Nasdaq can defend pricing and margins even if trading volumes fluctuate; if false, data-price compression would materially hurt margins and cash.
Watch: Regulatory action (SEC/ESMA) or mandated unbundling/caps on market data fees that directly reduce pricing power.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Gross profit increased from $4,649,000,000 (FY2024) to $5,249,000,000 (FY2025), showing expanding absolute gross profitability.
Open source ↗Integration of Adenza and Verafin will convert acquisition revenue into higher-margin recurring sales and expense synergies that lift operating cash flow.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Operating cash flow rose from $1,939,000,000 (FY2024) to $2,255,000,000 (FY2025), consistent with cash conversion improvement. Successful conversion expands durable revenue and cash; failure wastes acquisition cost and reduces ROIC and EPS upside.
Watch: Poor integration leading to client churn or slowing renewals of AxiomSL/Calypso/Verafin customers (lost cross-sell).
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating cash flow rose from $1,939,000,000 (FY2024) to $2,255,000,000 (FY2025), consistent with cash conversion improvement.
Open source ↗Realized expense synergies and a higher software+data mix will keep operating income and margins above prior-year levels, supporting free-cash-flow generation.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Operating income increased from $1,798,000,000 (FY2024) to $2,331,000,000 (FY2025). Sustained margin expansion funds buybacks and justifies a premium multiple; if margins reverse the multiple becomes vulnerable.
Watch: Rising amortization of acquired intangibles or additional M&A costs that offset synergies.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating income increased from $1,798,000,000 (FY2024) to $2,331,000,000 (FY2025).
Open source ↗Nasdaq can compound EPS through organic growth, margin improvement and capital returns; continued EPS acceleration is required for the stock to justify its premium valuation.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Diluted EPS increased from $1.93 (FY2024) to $3.09 (FY2025). EPS trajectory is the market's payoff variable — sustained EPS growth supports valuation; stagnating EPS will trigger multiple compression.
Watch: Large share issuance or value-destructive acquisitions that reduce EPS despite operating gains.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Diluted EPS increased from $1.93 (FY2024) to $3.09 (FY2025).
Open source ↗International revenue expansion (outside the U.S.) will be an important incremental growth lever and diversification source for Nasdaq's top line.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Total revenue rose from $7,400,000,000 (FY2024) to $8,262,000,000 (FY2025). If international growth sustains it reduces dependence on U.S. trading cycles and enlarges TAM; failure leaves growth constrained to domestic markets.
Watch: Local regulatory barriers or stronger non-U.S. competitors limiting market access in Europe/Asia.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Total revenue rose from $7,400,000,000 (FY2024) to $8,262,000,000 (FY2025).
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Nasdaq's proprietary market data and exchange services constitute a sticky, high-margin moat whose pricing power and network effects will sustain gross-profit durability and revenue resilience. If true, Nasdaq can defend pricing and margins even if trading volumes fluctuate; if false, data-price compression would materially hurt margins and cash.
Integration of Adenza and Verafin will convert acquisition revenue into higher-margin recurring sales and expense synergies that lift operating cash flow. Successful conversion expands durable revenue and cash; failure wastes acquisition cost and reduces ROIC and EPS upside.
Realized expense synergies and a higher software+data mix will keep operating income and margins above prior-year levels, supporting free-cash-flow generation. Sustained margin expansion funds buybacks and justifies a premium multiple; if margins reverse the multiple becomes vulnerable.
Nasdaq can compound EPS through organic growth, margin improvement and capital returns; continued EPS acceleration is required for the stock to justify its premium valuation. EPS trajectory is the market's payoff variable — sustained EPS growth supports valuation; stagnating EPS will trigger multiple compression.
International revenue expansion (outside the U.S.) will be an important incremental growth lever and diversification source for Nasdaq's top line. If international growth sustains it reduces dependence on U.S. trading cycles and enlarges TAM; failure leaves growth constrained to domestic markets.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Nasdaq is a technology-first marketplace operator that turns proprietary exchange data, recurring software (Adenza/Verafin) and transaction flow into high-margin, cash-generative subscription and services revenue with network effects that support pricing power.
BULL CASE / BEAR CASE
Bull case and bear case for Nasdaq
Where the evidence on Nasdaq stands: Strengthening on the latest evidence (Nov 5, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 5 strengthening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Nasdaq's proprietary market data and exchange services constitute a sticky, high-margin moat whose pricing power and network effects will sustain gross-profit durability and revenue resilience.
Integration of Adenza and Verafin will convert acquisition revenue into higher-margin recurring sales and expense synergies that lift operating cash flow.
Realized expense synergies and a higher software+data mix will keep operating income and margins above prior-year levels, supporting free-cash-flow generation.
Nasdaq can compound EPS through organic growth, margin improvement and capital returns; continued EPS acceleration is required for the stock to justify its premium valuation.
International revenue expansion (outside the U.S.) will be an important incremental growth lever and diversification source for Nasdaq's top line.
Bear case: what would count against it
Regulatory action (SEC/ESMA) or mandated unbundling/caps on market data fees that directly reduce pricing power.
Poor integration leading to client churn or slowing renewals of AxiomSL/Calypso/Verafin customers (lost cross-sell).
Rising amortization of acquired intangibles or additional M&A costs that offset synergies.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Nasdaq’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Nasdaq, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Nasdaq.
- Insider-selling clustercondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 9,137 times before. Those stocks beat comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 30% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MIXEDDirector or principal officer change.
Nasdaq filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-26: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MIXEDReported results of operations (earnings release).
Nasdaq filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-22: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MIXEDReported results of operations (earnings release).
Nasdaq filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-23: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
RISKS / FALSIFIERS
What could break the thesis
- Regulatory action (SEC/ESMA) or mandated unbundling/caps on market data fees that directly reduce pricing power.
- Poor integration leading to client churn or slowing renewals of AxiomSL/Calypso/Verafin customers (lost cross-sell).
- Rising amortization of acquired intangibles or additional M&A costs that offset synergies.
- Large share issuance or value-destructive acquisitions that reduce EPS despite operating gains.
- Local regulatory barriers or stronger non-U.S. competitors limiting market access in Europe/Asia.
NDAQ news
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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
NDAQ income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
NDAQ: quick answers
- When does Nasdaq (NDAQ) report earnings next?
- Nasdaq's next results are projected for January 28, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 22, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is NDAQ's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 9.1M NDAQ shares were sold short, 1.64% of its shares outstanding, down 6.2% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 2.4 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. NDAQ short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded NDAQ?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 2 trades in NDAQ by 2 filers: 0 purchases and 2 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed NDAQ trade
- Which well-known investors own NDAQ?
- 1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported NDAQ shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios
NDAQ in well-known investors’ portfolios
1 of 37 funds reported NDAQ shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.03% | $6.4M | New | Q2 2026 |