MercadoLibre
MELINASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $1,490.24 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $1,465.06–$1,512.41 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 595.9K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 23 projected Projected for 2027-02-23 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $1,465.06–$2,342.00 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own MELI if MercadoLibre converts Latin America’s low e-commerce penetration into durable, high-return growth by bundling marketplace, payments, logistics and advertising into an integrated ecosystem that captures take-rates and generates large operating cash flow.
MELI price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
MercadoLibre’s integrated ecosystem (Marketplace + Mercado Pago + Mercado Envios + Mercado Ads) allows it to extract higher take‑rates and cross‑sell services, sustaining revenue growth and elevated gross profit.StrengtheningMateriality: High
gross_profit increased from 7,590,000,000 (2023) to 12,858,000,000 (2025). If true, the company sustains high-margin growth without needing constant capital raises; if false, revenue growth will be more commoditized and margins will compress.
Watch: Regulatory limits on Mercado Pago’s ability to hold funds/offer lending (central bank or fintech rules) that reduce take rates and float.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
gross_profit increased from 7,590,000,000 (2023) to 12,858,000,000 (2025).
Open source ↗Because e‑commerce penetration in Latin America is still well below developed benchmarks and MELI is the regional GMV leader, organic market growth plus share gains will keep top‑line growth robust.StrengtheningMateriality: High
revenue rose from 15,107,000,000 (2023) to 20,777,000,000 (2024) to 28,893,000,000 (2025). Sustained high revenue growth validates the premium multiple and funds product and logistics expansion; if penetration saturates or the company loses share, growth and valuation will reprice.
Watch: Macro contraction or sharp currency devaluations in major markets reducing consumer spending and e‑commerce volumes.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
revenue rose from 15,107,000,000 (2023) to 20,777,000,000 (2024) to 28,893,000,000 (2025).
Open source ↗Mercado Pago’s payments processing and lending generate outsized operating cash flow (via float and lending receipts) that funds expansion in logistics and advertising without equity dilution.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
operating_cash_flow rose from 5,140,000,000 (2023) to 7,918,000,000 (2024) to 12,116,000,000 (2025). If Mercado Pago’s cash conversion persists, MELI can self‑fund growth and sustain investment in fulfillment and ads; if regulatory or settlement changes remove float, funding and ROI assumptions collapse.
Watch: Regulatory measures forcing faster settlement (reducing float) or prohibiting certain marketplace-held funds/lending.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
operating_cash_flow rose from 5,140,000,000 (2023) to 7,918,000,000 (2024) to 12,116,000,000 (2025).
Open source ↗Mercado Ads is a scalable, high‑incremental‑margin product that can drive operating‑income leverage if advertiser adoption continues, returning operating margins toward prior levels.HoldingMateriality: Medium
operating_income increased in absolute terms from 2,207,000,000 (2023) to 3,201,000,000 (2025). Ad growth would boost operating income faster than revenue, improving return on capital and justifying a higher multiple; failure to scale ads leaves MELI reliant on lower‑margin commerce.
Watch: Advertisers prefer global platforms (Google/Meta) or third‑party DSPs off‑marketplace, limiting ad revenue growth.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
operating_income increased in absolute terms from 2,207,000,000 (2023) to 3,201,000,000 (2025).
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
MercadoLibre’s integrated ecosystem (Marketplace + Mercado Pago + Mercado Envios + Mercado Ads) allows it to extract higher take‑rates and cross‑sell services, sustaining revenue growth and elevated gross profit. If true, the company sustains high-margin growth without needing constant capital raises; if false, revenue growth will be more commoditized and margins will compress.
Because e‑commerce penetration in Latin America is still well below developed benchmarks and MELI is the regional GMV leader, organic market growth plus share gains will keep top‑line growth robust. Sustained high revenue growth validates the premium multiple and funds product and logistics expansion; if penetration saturates or the company loses share, growth and valuation will reprice.
Mercado Pago’s payments processing and lending generate outsized operating cash flow (via float and lending receipts) that funds expansion in logistics and advertising without equity dilution. If Mercado Pago’s cash conversion persists, MELI can self‑fund growth and sustain investment in fulfillment and ads; if regulatory or settlement changes remove float, funding and ROI assumptions collapse.
Mercado Ads is a scalable, high‑incremental‑margin product that can drive operating‑income leverage if advertiser adoption continues, returning operating margins toward prior levels. Ad growth would boost operating income faster than revenue, improving return on capital and justifying a higher multiple; failure to scale ads leaves MELI reliant on lower‑margin commerce.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
MercadoLibre converts Latin America’s low e-commerce penetration into durable, high-return growth by bundling marketplace, payments, logistics and advertising into an integrated ecosystem that captures take-rates and generates large operating cash flow.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Mercadolibre
Where the evidence on Mercadolibre stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 8, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 1 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
MercadoLibre’s integrated ecosystem (Marketplace + Mercado Pago + Mercado Envios + Mercado Ads) allows it to extract higher take‑rates and cross‑sell services, sustaining revenue growth and elevated gross profit.
Because e‑commerce penetration in Latin America is still well below developed benchmarks and MELI is the regional GMV leader, organic market growth plus share gains will keep top‑line growth robust.
Mercado Pago’s payments processing and lending generate outsized operating cash flow (via float and lending receipts) that funds expansion in logistics and advertising without equity dilution.
Mercado Ads is a scalable, high‑incremental‑margin product that can drive operating‑income leverage if advertiser adoption continues, returning operating margins toward prior levels.
Bear case: what would count against it
Regulatory limits on Mercado Pago’s ability to hold funds/offer lending (central bank or fintech rules) that reduce take rates and float.
Macro contraction or sharp currency devaluations in major markets reducing consumer spending and e‑commerce volumes.
Regulatory measures forcing faster settlement (reducing float) or prohibiting certain marketplace-held funds/lending.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · Mercadolibre
No break has crossed Mercadolibre’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Mercadolibre filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-04: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedOther material event.
Mercadolibre filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-14: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedEntered a material definitive agreement.
Mercadolibre filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-10: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Regulatory limits on Mercado Pago’s ability to hold funds/offer lending (central bank or fintech rules) that reduce take rates and float.
- Macro contraction or sharp currency devaluations in major markets reducing consumer spending and e‑commerce volumes.
- Regulatory measures forcing faster settlement (reducing float) or prohibiting certain marketplace-held funds/lending.
- Advertisers prefer global platforms (Google/Meta) or third‑party DSPs off‑marketplace, limiting ad revenue growth.
MELI news
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Financial statements
MELI income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
MELI: quick answers
- When does Mercadolibre (MELI) report earnings next?
- Mercadolibre's next results are projected for February 23, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 4, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is MELI's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 1.0M MELI shares were sold short, 2.02% of its shares outstanding, up 1.0% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 1.6 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. MELI short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded MELI?
- 74 trades in MELI have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed MELI trade
- Which well-known investors own MELI?
- 7 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported MELI shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Durable Capital Partners, 5.1%; D1 Capital Partners (Dan Sundheim), 1.4%; Tiger Global Management (Chase Coleman), 1.1%. Fund portfolios
MELI in well-known investors’ portfolios
7 of 37 funds reported MELI shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Capital Partners | 5.1% | $524M | −12.0% | Q2 2026 |
| Dan SundheimD1 Capital Partners | 1.4% | $471M | −25.7% | Q2 2026 |
| Chase ColemanTiger Global Management | 1.1% | $260M | +13.4% | Q2 2026 |
| Bill MillerMiller Value Partners | 0.69% | $2.9M | −22.7% | Q2 2026 |
| Tom GaynerMarkel Group | 0.33% | $41.8M | +0.8% | Q3 2026 |
| Cathie WoodARK Investment Management | 0.24% | $37.4M | −8.1% | Q2 2026 |
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.07% | $17.0M | −31.8% | Q2 2026 |