Illinois Tool Works
ITWNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $288.05 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $286.17–$289.11 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 848.3K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Not yet confirmed The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
- $238.82–$303.16 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own ITW if ITW converts deep divisional specialization, its proprietary 80/20 operating system and customer-back innovation into above-market margins, steady cash generation and durable organic growth across diversified industrial niches.
ITW price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
ITW's 80/20 operating model and decentralized divisions will sustain its premium operating margins and pricing power across cycles.StrengtheningMateriality: High
operating_income (2025: 4,216,000,000 USD) and revenue (2025: 16,044,000,000 USD) imply an operating margin ≈26.3% (consistent with 2023–2025 levels). If true, margins stay high and cash generation remains predictable, underpinning buybacks/dividends and a premium multiple; if false, margin compression will force valuation down and limit returns.
Watch: Large OEMs or major foodservice customers insource production or consolidate suppliers, removing high‑value 80 customers and pressuring pricing.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
operating_income (2025: 4,216,000,000 USD) and revenue (2025: 16,044,000,000 USD) imply an operating margin ≈26.3% (consistent with 2023–2025 levels).
Open source ↗Customer‑Back Innovation (CBI) and scaled divisional structure will produce consistent above‑market organic revenue growth (rather than reliance on acquisitions).HoldingMateriality: High
Revenue has been stable around ~16.0 billion USD (2023: 16,107,000,000. Sustained organic growth validates the business model and allows margins to convert into compounding shareholder value; failure pushes the company toward lower‑quality growth and risks margin dilution.
Watch: A macro industrial downturn that reduces OEM and construction capex, causing multi‑division order declines.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Revenue has been stable around ~16.0 billion USD (2023: 16,107,000,000.
Open source ↗Strategic sourcing and 80/20 discipline will keep operating cash flow conversion high, enabling ongoing buybacks/dividends that support EPS and shareholder returns.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Operating_cash_flow has been a steady source of cash: 2023: 3,539,000,000 USD. High cash conversion funds buybacks/dividends without levering the balance sheet; if cash conversion falls, EPS support from buybacks weakens and valuation suffers.
Watch: Working capital deterioration (rising inventory months or DSO) or a need for higher structural capex that reduces free cash flow.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating_cash_flow has been a steady source of cash: 2023: 3,539,000,000 USD.
Open source ↗ITW's focus on highly engineered, patented, niche products preserves a high gross margin profile and protects against commodity price competition.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Gross_profit for 2025: 8,488,000,000 USD on revenue 16,044,000,000 USD implies a gross margin ≈52.9%, consistent with prior years (2023: ≈50.7%). If gross margins hold, the company can absorb SG&A and R&D while keeping operating margins high; if differentiation fades, gross margin pressure will cascade to operating margin and cash flow.
Watch: Loss of patent protection or a major adverse patent ruling permitting low‑cost entrants to replicate products.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Gross_profit for 2025: 8,488,000,000 USD on revenue 16,044,000,000 USD implies a gross margin ≈52.9%, consistent with prior years (2023: ≈50.7%).
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
ITW's 80/20 operating model and decentralized divisions will sustain its premium operating margins and pricing power across cycles. If true, margins stay high and cash generation remains predictable, underpinning buybacks/dividends and a premium multiple; if false, margin compression will force valuation down and limit returns.
Customer‑Back Innovation (CBI) and scaled divisional structure will produce consistent above‑market organic revenue growth (rather than reliance on acquisitions). Sustained organic growth validates the business model and allows margins to convert into compounding shareholder value; failure pushes the company toward lower‑quality growth and risks margin dilution.
Strategic sourcing and 80/20 discipline will keep operating cash flow conversion high, enabling ongoing buybacks/dividends that support EPS and shareholder returns. High cash conversion funds buybacks/dividends without levering the balance sheet; if cash conversion falls, EPS support from buybacks weakens and valuation suffers.
ITW's focus on highly engineered, patented, niche products preserves a high gross margin profile and protects against commodity price competition. If gross margins hold, the company can absorb SG&A and R&D while keeping operating margins high; if differentiation fades, gross margin pressure will cascade to operating margin and cash flow.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
ITW converts deep divisional specialization, its proprietary 80/20 operating system and customer-back innovation into above-market margins, steady cash generation and durable organic growth across diversified industrial niches.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Illinois Tool Works
Where the evidence on Illinois Tool Works stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 7, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 2 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
ITW's 80/20 operating model and decentralized divisions will sustain its premium operating margins and pricing power across cycles.
Customer‑Back Innovation (CBI) and scaled divisional structure will produce consistent above‑market organic revenue growth (rather than reliance on acquisitions).
Strategic sourcing and 80/20 discipline will keep operating cash flow conversion high, enabling ongoing buybacks/dividends that support EPS and shareholder returns.
ITW's focus on highly engineered, patented, niche products preserves a high gross margin profile and protects against commodity price competition.
Bear case: what would count against it
Large OEMs or major foodservice customers insource production or consolidate suppliers, removing high‑value 80 customers and pressuring pricing.
A macro industrial downturn that reduces OEM and construction capex, causing multi‑division order declines.
Working capital deterioration (rising inventory months or DSO) or a need for higher structural capex that reduces free cash flow.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Illinois Tool Works’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Illinois Tool Works, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Illinois Tool Works.
- Price target fell below the stockcondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 1,809 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Illinois Tool Works filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-27: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedOther material event.
Illinois Tool Works filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-13: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Illinois Tool Works filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-28: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Large OEMs or major foodservice customers insource production or consolidate suppliers, removing high‑value 80 customers and pressuring pricing.
- A macro industrial downturn that reduces OEM and construction capex, causing multi‑division order declines.
- Working capital deterioration (rising inventory months or DSO) or a need for higher structural capex that reduces free cash flow.
- Loss of patent protection or a major adverse patent ruling permitting low‑cost entrants to replicate products.
ITW news
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Financial statements
ITW income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
ITW: quick answers
- Have members of Congress traded ITW?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 8 trades in ITW by 4 filers: 1 purchase and 7 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed ITW trade
- Which well-known investors own ITW?
- 2 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported ITW shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Markel Group (Tom Gayner), 0.7%; Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.1%. Fund portfolios
ITW in well-known investors’ portfolios
2 of 37 funds reported ITW shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom GaynerMarkel Group | 0.66% | $84.3M | No change | Q3 2026 |
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.05% | $12.1M | +27.4% | Q2 2026 |