IonQ
IONQNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $34.99 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $34.00–$35.95 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 16.3M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 24 projected Projected for 2027-02-24 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $24.92–$73.65 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own IONQ if the 2025 revenue step-change proves repeatable and the company starts converting its large cash balance into operating leverage rather than accelerating burn.
IONQ price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
IonQ’s 2025 revenue step-up will continue into 2026 rather than reverting to a small, lumpy contract base.HoldingMateriality: High
FY2026 revenue grows at least 50% from FY2025, or quarterly revenue prints show sustained year-over-year growth without a major sequential collapse. This is a load-bearing condition for IonQ's investment case.
Watch: FY2026 revenue grows less than 25%, or two consecutive quarters show sharp sequential revenue declines.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
FY2026 revenue grows at least 50% from FY2025, or quarterly revenue prints show sustained year-over-year growth without a major sequential.
Open source ↗Revenue growth will begin to carry operating leverage, with losses growing materially slower than revenue.HoldingMateriality: High
Operating loss as a percentage of revenue improves in FY2026, or the absolute operating loss is less negative than FY2025 despite revenue growth. This is a load-bearing condition for IonQ's investment case.
Watch: FY2026 operating loss becomes more negative while revenue growth slows, showing growth is being bought with worsening economics.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating loss as a percentage of revenue improves in FY2026, or the absolute operating loss is less negative than FY2025.
Open source ↗IonQ has enough balance-sheet runway to fund the commercialization phase without a distressed capital raise.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Cash remains comfortably above annual operating cash burn through upcoming filings and no discounted equity or debt financing is required. This is a load-bearing condition for IonQ's investment case.
Watch: Cash falls below roughly one year of trailing operating cash burn, or the company raises capital on distressed or highly dilutive terms.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Cash remains comfortably above annual operating cash burn through upcoming filings and no discounted equity or debt financing is required.
Open source ↗Operating cash burn peaked or stabilizes after 2025 as the business scales.HoldingMateriality: Medium
FY2026 operating cash flow is less negative than FY2025, or quarterly cash burn trends down for at least two consecutive quarters. This is a load-bearing condition for IonQ's investment case.
Watch: FY2026 operating cash flow is more negative than FY2025, or quarterly burn accelerates despite higher revenue.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
FY2026 operating cash flow is less negative than FY2025, or quarterly cash burn trends down for at least two consecutive.
Open source ↗The sharp increase in liabilities will not become a constraint on IonQ’s investment runway.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Liabilities stabilize or decline relative to assets, cash, or revenue in upcoming balance sheets. This is a load-bearing condition for IonQ's investment case.
Watch: Liabilities keep rising faster than assets or cash, or disclosures indicate financing obligations are limiting investment flexibility.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Liabilities stabilize or decline relative to assets, cash, or revenue in upcoming balance sheets.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
IonQ’s 2025 revenue step-up will continue into 2026 rather than reverting to a small, lumpy contract base. This is a load-bearing condition for IonQ's investment case.
Revenue growth will begin to carry operating leverage, with losses growing materially slower than revenue. This is a load-bearing condition for IonQ's investment case.
IonQ has enough balance-sheet runway to fund the commercialization phase without a distressed capital raise. This is a load-bearing condition for IonQ's investment case.
Operating cash burn peaked or stabilizes after 2025 as the business scales. This is a load-bearing condition for IonQ's investment case.
The sharp increase in liabilities will not become a constraint on IonQ’s investment runway. This is a load-bearing condition for IonQ's investment case.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
the 2025 revenue step-change proves repeatable and the company starts converting its large cash balance into operating leverage rather than accelerating burn.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for IonQ
Where the evidence on IonQ stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 13, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 5 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
IonQ’s 2025 revenue step-up will continue into 2026 rather than reverting to a small, lumpy contract base.
Revenue growth will begin to carry operating leverage, with losses growing materially slower than revenue.
IonQ has enough balance-sheet runway to fund the commercialization phase without a distressed capital raise.
Operating cash burn peaked or stabilizes after 2025 as the business scales.
The sharp increase in liabilities will not become a constraint on IonQ’s investment runway.
Bear case: what would count against it
FY2026 revenue grows less than 25%, or two consecutive quarters show sharp sequential revenue declines.
FY2026 operating loss becomes more negative while revenue growth slows, showing growth is being bought with worsening economics.
Cash falls below roughly one year of trailing operating cash burn, or the company raises capital on distressed or highly dilutive terms.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in IonQ’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on IonQ, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for IonQ.
- Revenue decline
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedEntered a material definitive agreement.
IonQ filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-13: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedRegulation FD disclosure.
IonQ filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-08: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
IonQ filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-28: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- FY2026 revenue grows less than 25%, or two consecutive quarters show sharp sequential revenue declines.
- FY2026 operating loss becomes more negative while revenue growth slows, showing growth is being bought with worsening economics.
- Cash falls below roughly one year of trailing operating cash burn, or the company raises capital on distressed or highly dilutive terms.
- FY2026 operating cash flow is more negative than FY2025, or quarterly burn accelerates despite higher revenue.
- Liabilities keep rising faster than assets or cash, or disclosures indicate financing obligations are limiting investment flexibility.
IONQ news
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Financial statements
IONQ income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
IONQ: quick answers
- When does IonQ (IONQ) report earnings next?
- IonQ's next results are projected for February 24, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 5, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is IONQ's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 50.6M IONQ shares were sold short, 11.7% of its shares outstanding, up 5.7% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 2.6 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. IONQ short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded IONQ?
- 1 trade in IONQ has been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed IONQ trade