Formula One Group

FWONKNASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$111.17
+$2.23 (+2.05%)Today 1M +15.84%
After hours$112.56+1.25%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$108.94
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$107.98–$111.26
Regular-session low and high so far today.
3.2M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Feb 25 projected
Projected for 2027-02-25 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$80.15–$111.26
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own FWONK if Formula One remains a scarce global attention asset that Liberty can monetize through media rights, race promotion fees, sponsorship and adjacent live-event rights with rising operating leverage.

FWONK price history

Latest price$111.17Today+$2.23 (+2.05%)
FWONK +18.96%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

4 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • The scarcity of Formula One’s global race calendar keeps broadcasters, sponsors and host cities paying for access, so demand for Liberty’s motorsport platform remains resilient rather than purely event-cycle dependent.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual revenue increased to $4.482 billion in FY2025 from $3.653 billion in FY2024. If this holds, revenue can compound from multiple rights streams; if it breaks, FWONK loses the core scarcity premium behind the stock.

    Watch: A major Formula One media-rights partner such as ESPN, Sky or Canal+ renews at flat or lower economics because audience growth weakens.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual revenue increased to $4.482 billion in FY2025 from $3.653 billion in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
  • Because rights and sponsorship revenue ride on an already built championship and event infrastructure, incremental monetization should expand GAAP operating income unless team payments, race costs or acquisition overhead absorb the upside.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual operating income increased to $577 million in FY2025 from $287 million in FY2024. Revenue growth only creates owner value if it converts into operating profit rather than being competed or costed away.

    Watch: Formula One team prize payments or revenue-sharing terms take a larger share of media and promoter economics.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating income increased to $577 million in FY2025 from $287 million in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
  • Liberty’s value creation depends on using the focused motorsport and live-entertainment platform to buy or build adjacent rights without levering the tracker so much that financial risk crowds out reinvestment.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    At FY2025 year-end, liabilities were $6.948 billion versus assets of $15.398 billion and equity of $7.757 billion. Disciplined rights ownership can extend the platform; debt-funded or poorly integrated expansion can transfer upside from equity holders to creditors and sellers.

    Watch: A large motorsport-rights acquisition is financed mainly with debt at high interest rates.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    At FY2025 year-end, liabilities were $6.948 billion versus assets of $15.398 billion and equity of $7.757 billion.

    Open source ↗
  • After Liberty’s portfolio reshaping, FWONK must become underwritable from repeatable motorsport operating earnings rather than non-operating investment swings and tracking-stock complexity.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual net income improved to $555 million in FY2025 from a GAAP annual net loss of $2.063 billion in FY2024. A cleaner earnings base can support a durable per-share value thesis; recurring non-operating noise can keep a tracking-stock discount in place.

    Watch: New Liberty restructurings, asset transfers or tracking-stock allocations make FWONK earnings harder to tie to Formula One economics.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual net income improved to $555 million in FY2025 from a GAAP annual net loss of $2.063 billion in.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

Loading the original research archive…

Original research

The scarcity of Formula One’s global race calendar keeps broadcasters, sponsors and host cities paying for access, so demand for Liberty’s motorsport platform remains resilient rather than purely event-cycle dependent. If this holds, revenue can compound from multiple rights streams; if it breaks, FWONK loses the core scarcity premium behind the stock.

Because rights and sponsorship revenue ride on an already built championship and event infrastructure, incremental monetization should expand GAAP operating income unless team payments, race costs or acquisition overhead absorb the upside. Revenue growth only creates owner value if it converts into operating profit rather than being competed or costed away.

Liberty’s value creation depends on using the focused motorsport and live-entertainment platform to buy or build adjacent rights without levering the tracker so much that financial risk crowds out reinvestment. Disciplined rights ownership can extend the platform; debt-funded or poorly integrated expansion can transfer upside from equity holders to creditors and sellers.

After Liberty’s portfolio reshaping, FWONK must become underwritable from repeatable motorsport operating earnings rather than non-operating investment swings and tracking-stock complexity. A cleaner earnings base can support a durable per-share value thesis; recurring non-operating noise can keep a tracking-stock discount in place.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

Formula One remains a scarce global attention asset that Liberty can monetize through media rights, race promotion fees, sponsorship and adjacent live-event rights with rising operating leverage.

Evidence assessed Oct 12, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Liberty Media

Where the evidence on Liberty Media stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 12, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 2 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • The scarcity of Formula One’s global race calendar keeps broadcasters, sponsors and host cities paying for access, so demand for Liberty’s motorsport platform remains resilient rather than purely event-cycle dependent.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Because rights and sponsorship revenue ride on an already built championship and event infrastructure, incremental monetization should expand GAAP operating income unless team payments, race costs or acquisition overhead absorb the upside.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Liberty’s value creation depends on using the focused motorsport and live-entertainment platform to buy or build adjacent rights without levering the tracker so much that financial risk crowds out reinvestment.

    sec.gov ↗

  • After Liberty’s portfolio reshaping, FWONK must become underwritable from repeatable motorsport operating earnings rather than non-operating investment swings and tracking-stock complexity.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • A major Formula One media-rights partner such as ESPN, Sky or Canal+ renews at flat or lower economics because audience growth weakens.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Formula One team prize payments or revenue-sharing terms take a larger share of media and promoter economics.

    sec.gov ↗

  • A large motorsport-rights acquisition is financed mainly with debt at high interest rates.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

What has broken in Liberty Media’s thesis

Each break OptimistFi flagged on Liberty Media, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Liberty Media.

peers+15%-20%-2%12 mo agonow+6 mo
Daily price, then where similar breaks led across the market: the typical -2% path vs comparable companies over six months, inside the middle-half range (+15% to -20%). A base rate, not a forecast.
  • CEO / officer changecondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 16,849 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 2% over the next six months, and 38% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against comparable companies after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Regulation FD disclosure.

    Liberty Media filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-09: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Director or principal officer change.

    Liberty Media filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-02: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Unregistered sale of equity securities.

    Liberty Media filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-13: Unregistered sale of equity securities. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • A major Formula One media-rights partner such as ESPN, Sky or Canal+ renews at flat or lower economics because audience growth weakens.
  • Formula One team prize payments or revenue-sharing terms take a larger share of media and promoter economics.
  • A large motorsport-rights acquisition is financed mainly with debt at high interest rates.
  • New Liberty restructurings, asset transfers or tracking-stock allocations make FWONK earnings harder to tie to Formula One economics.

FWONK news

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Financial statements

FWONK income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

FWONK: quick answers

When does Liberty Media (FWONK) report earnings next?
Liberty Media's next results are projected for February 25, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 5, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is FWONK's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 10.1M FWONK shares were sold short, up 0.2% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 4.5 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. FWONK short interest history
Have members of Congress traded FWONK?
Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 4 trades in FWONK by 1 filer: 3 purchases and 1 sale. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed FWONK trade
Which well-known investors own FWONK?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported FWONK shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Tiger Global Management (Chase Coleman), 0.9%. Fund portfolios

FWONK in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported FWONK shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Chase ColemanTiger Global Management0.90%$217M−15.0%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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