Federal Signal
FSSNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $115.16 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $113.73–$117.37 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 225.3K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Not yet confirmed The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
- $101.19–$134.51 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own FSS if Federal Signal compounds value by selling mission‑critical municipal and public‑safety equipment while expanding higher‑margin aftermarket and acquired product lines, converting steady revenue into rising cash and earnings.
FSS price history
Loading recent earnings…
Investment thesis
What must happen next
Steady recurring aftermarket/service demand (plus stable new‑unit municipal demand) is the primary engine converting revenue into reliable operating cash flow.StrengtheningMateriality: High
operating_cash_flow increased each year: $71,800,000 (2022) → $194,400,000 (2023) → $231,300,000 (2024) → $254,700,000 (2025). If true, consistent operating cash flow funds M&A and shareholder returns with limited dilution; if false, cash will be volatile and growth funding will require external capital or cutbacks.
Watch: A material reduction in municipal or public‑safety capital budgets that reduces new equipment orders and aftermarket attach rates.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
operating_cash_flow increased each year: $71,800,000 (2022) → $194,400,000 (2023) → $231,300,000 (2024) → $254,700,000 (2025).
Open source ↗Improving product mix and pricing power (or operational leverage) are driving gross‑ and operating‑margin expansion rather than one‑time benefits.HoldingMateriality: High
gross_profit rose from $344,900,000 (2022) → $631,200,000 (2025), with gross margin improving over the period. Sustained margin expansion increases free cash flow and justifies premium valuation; if margins collapse, the premium multiple is at risk.
Watch: Sustained commodity/steel price inflation or freight costs that cannot be passed to customers.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
gross_profit rose from $344,900,000 (2022) → $631,200,000 (2025), with gross margin improving over the period.
Open source ↗Bolt‑on M&A materially accelerates growth and expands higher‑margin service/product breadth — the company finances deals and folds them into revenue, supporting the top‑line and margin trajectory.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Total assets jumped to $2,392,600,000 in 2025 from $1,765,200,000 in 2024, concurrent with a jump in revenue. If acquisitions continue to add profitable revenue and cross‑sell, reported growth can outpace organic demand; failure or overpayment would impair margins and capital returns.
Watch: A large acquisition that fails to integrate, producing restructuring charges or goodwill impairment.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Total assets jumped to $2,392,600,000 in 2025 from $1,765,200,000 in 2024, concurrent with a jump in revenue.
Open source ↗Consistent operating cash flow and rising EPS enable the company to fund acquisitions and shareholder returns without jeopardizing the balance sheet.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
eps_diluted increased year over year: $1.97 (2022) → $2.56 (2023) → $3.50 (2024) → $4.01 (2025). If true, investors benefit from compounding via buybacks/dividends and accretive deals; if false, the company may lever excessively or dilute shareholders.
Watch: A material increase in cash outflows for acquisitions or capex that reduces reported cash balances (cash fell to $63,700,000 in 2025).
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
eps_diluted increased year over year: $1.97 (2022) → $2.56 (2023) → $3.50 (2024) → $4.01 (2025).
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
Loading the original research archive…
Original research
Steady recurring aftermarket/service demand (plus stable new‑unit municipal demand) is the primary engine converting revenue into reliable operating cash flow. If true, consistent operating cash flow funds M&A and shareholder returns with limited dilution; if false, cash will be volatile and growth funding will require external capital or cutbacks.
Improving product mix and pricing power (or operational leverage) are driving gross‑ and operating‑margin expansion rather than one‑time benefits. Sustained margin expansion increases free cash flow and justifies premium valuation; if margins collapse, the premium multiple is at risk.
Bolt‑on M&A materially accelerates growth and expands higher‑margin service/product breadth — the company finances deals and folds them into revenue, supporting the top‑line and margin trajectory. If acquisitions continue to add profitable revenue and cross‑sell, reported growth can outpace organic demand; failure or overpayment would impair margins and capital returns.
Consistent operating cash flow and rising EPS enable the company to fund acquisitions and shareholder returns without jeopardizing the balance sheet. If true, investors benefit from compounding via buybacks/dividends and accretive deals; if false, the company may lever excessively or dilute shareholders.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Federal Signal compounds value by selling mission‑critical municipal and public‑safety equipment while expanding higher‑margin aftermarket and acquired product lines, converting steady revenue into rising cash and earnings.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Federal Signal
Where the evidence on Federal Signal stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 7, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 2 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Steady recurring aftermarket/service demand (plus stable new‑unit municipal demand) is the primary engine converting revenue into reliable operating cash flow.
Improving product mix and pricing power (or operational leverage) are driving gross‑ and operating‑margin expansion rather than one‑time benefits.
Bolt‑on M&A materially accelerates growth and expands higher‑margin service/product breadth — the company finances deals and folds them into revenue, supporting the top‑line and margin trajectory.
Consistent operating cash flow and rising EPS enable the company to fund acquisitions and shareholder returns without jeopardizing the balance sheet.
Bear case: what would count against it
A material reduction in municipal or public‑safety capital budgets that reduces new equipment orders and aftermarket attach rates.
Sustained commodity/steel price inflation or freight costs that cannot be passed to customers.
A large acquisition that fails to integrate, producing restructuring charges or goodwill impairment.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · Federal Signal
Loading the break-condition record for Federal Signal.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedRegulation FD disclosure.
Federal Signal filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-05-20: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- A material reduction in municipal or public‑safety capital budgets that reduces new equipment orders and aftermarket attach rates.
- Sustained commodity/steel price inflation or freight costs that cannot be passed to customers.
- A large acquisition that fails to integrate, producing restructuring charges or goodwill impairment.
- A material increase in cash outflows for acquisitions or capex that reduces reported cash balances (cash fell to $63,700,000 in 2025).
FSS news
Loading headlines…
Financial statements
FSS income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
FSS: quick answers
- What is FSS's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 4.2M FSS shares were sold short, 6.91% of its shares outstanding, up 1.3% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 8.0 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. FSS short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded FSS?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 2 trades in FSS by 2 filers: 1 purchase and 1 sale. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed FSS trade
- Which well-known investors own FSS?
- 1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported FSS shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios
FSS in well-known investors’ portfolios
1 of 37 funds reported FSS shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.02% | $5.8M | +86.0% | Q2 2026 |