ConocoPhillips
COPNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $135.59 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $135.43–$137.94 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 4.8M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Not yet confirmed The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
- $85.70–$154.28 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own COP if ConocoPhillips converts a large, low-cost oil & gas asset base into persistent free cash flow that funds capital returns and selective reinvestment, but that cash generation and the stock’s return depend on realized commodity.
COP price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
ConocoPhillips’s upstream asset base will keep generating multi‑billion annual operating cash flow (supporting returns) because its production and cost structure deliver strong cash margins that largely pass through changes in commodity prices.StrengtheningMateriality: High
operating_cash_flow ~ $19.8B (2025), $20.12B (2024), $19.965B (2023) — demonstrates multi‑year cash generation at recent prices. If true, shareholders get reliable buybacks/dividends and selective reinvestment; if false, capital returns will be cut or financed with debt/equity and value per share will fall.
Watch: a sustained, multi‑year drop in realized oil or gas prices that materially lowers per‑barrel cash margins.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
operating_cash_flow ~ $19.8B (2025), $20.12B (2024), $19.965B (2023) — demonstrates multi‑year cash generation at recent prices.
Open source ↗COP’s gross margin will remain materially above low‑single‑digits because the company’s asset scale and cost structure preserve a large spread between realized prices and production costs.StrengtheningMateriality: High
gross_profit / revenue ≈ 60–63% in 2023–2025 (gross_profit: $34.166B in 2023. Sustained high gross margins protect operating profit and cash flow through price cycles; margin erosion would presage cash and return pressure.
Watch: a structural rise in per‑unit operating costs (higher lifting costs, carbon/tax burdens, or O&M inflation).
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
gross_profit / revenue ≈ 60–63% in 2023–2025 (gross_profit: $34.166B in 2023.
Open source ↗A strengthened balance sheet (rising equity and manageable liabilities) gives ConocoPhillips the optionality to pursue buybacks/dividends and fund strategic deals without forcing dilutive financing.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
equity increased from $48.003B (2022) to $64.487B (2025). If balance sheet strength holds, management can return capital while preserving investment grade-like flexibility; a rapid deterioration would force harder choices and likely reduce returns.
Watch: large, debt‑financed acquisitions or a sudden need for cash (e.g., litigation, regulatory fines) that materially increases liabilities.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
equity increased from $48.003B (2022) to $64.487B (2025).
Open source ↗Reported EPS will remain volatile because earnings are tightly coupled to commodity realizations and production replacement; therefore per‑share returns are contingent on sustained mid‑cycle prices and reserve replacement.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
eps_diluted fell from $14.57 (2022) to $9.06 (2023) to $7.81 (2024) to $6.35 (2025), showing material EPS sensitivity across years. Volatile EPS means the stock will trade on expected commodity paths; consistent EPS recovery would compress risk premia and support valuation expansion.
Watch: a durable step‑down in commodity demand or sustained regulatory actions that depress price realizations.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
eps_diluted fell from $14.57 (2022) to $9.06 (2023) to $7.81 (2024) to $6.35 (2025), showing material EPS sensitivity across years.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
ConocoPhillips’s upstream asset base will keep generating multi‑billion annual operating cash flow (supporting returns) because its production and cost structure deliver strong cash margins that largely pass through changes in commodity prices. If true, shareholders get reliable buybacks/dividends and selective reinvestment; if false, capital returns will be cut or financed with debt/equity and value per share will fall.
COP’s gross margin will remain materially above low‑single‑digits because the company’s asset scale and cost structure preserve a large spread between realized prices and production costs. Sustained high gross margins protect operating profit and cash flow through price cycles; margin erosion would presage cash and return pressure.
A strengthened balance sheet (rising equity and manageable liabilities) gives ConocoPhillips the optionality to pursue buybacks/dividends and fund strategic deals without forcing dilutive financing. If balance sheet strength holds, management can return capital while preserving investment grade-like flexibility; a rapid deterioration would force harder choices and likely reduce returns.
Reported EPS will remain volatile because earnings are tightly coupled to commodity realizations and production replacement; therefore per‑share returns are contingent on sustained mid‑cycle prices and reserve replacement. Volatile EPS means the stock will trade on expected commodity paths; consistent EPS recovery would compress risk premia and support valuation expansion.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
ConocoPhillips converts a large, low-cost oil & gas asset base into persistent free cash flow that funds capital returns and selective reinvestment, but that cash generation and the stock’s return depend on realized commodity.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Conocophillips
Where the evidence on Conocophillips stands: Strengthening on the latest evidence (Oct 12, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 4 strengthening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
ConocoPhillips’s upstream asset base will keep generating multi‑billion annual operating cash flow (supporting returns) because its production and cost structure deliver strong cash margins that largely pass through changes in commodity prices.
COP’s gross margin will remain materially above low‑single‑digits because the company’s asset scale and cost structure preserve a large spread between realized prices and production costs.
A strengthened balance sheet (rising equity and manageable liabilities) gives ConocoPhillips the optionality to pursue buybacks/dividends and fund strategic deals without forcing dilutive financing.
Reported EPS will remain volatile because earnings are tightly coupled to commodity realizations and production replacement; therefore per‑share returns are contingent on sustained mid‑cycle prices and reserve replacement.
Bear case: what would count against it
a sustained, multi‑year drop in realized oil or gas prices that materially lowers per‑barrel cash margins.
a structural rise in per‑unit operating costs (higher lifting costs, carbon/tax burdens, or O&M inflation).
large, debt‑financed acquisitions or a sudden need for cash (e.g., litigation, regulatory fines) that materially increases liabilities.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · Conocophillips
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MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Conocophillips filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-11: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Conocophillips filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-06: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Conocophillips filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-06-23: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- a sustained, multi‑year drop in realized oil or gas prices that materially lowers per‑barrel cash margins.
- a structural rise in per‑unit operating costs (higher lifting costs, carbon/tax burdens, or O&M inflation).
- large, debt‑financed acquisitions or a sudden need for cash (e.g., litigation, regulatory fines) that materially increases liabilities.
- a durable step‑down in commodity demand or sustained regulatory actions that depress price realizations.
COP news
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Financial statements
COP income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
COP: quick answers
- Have members of Congress traded COP?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 8 trades in COP by 2 filers: 1 purchase and 7 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed COP trade
- Which well-known investors own COP?
- 1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported COP shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios
COP in well-known investors’ portfolios
1 of 37 funds reported COP shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.01% | $2.4M | New | Q2 2026 |