Chipotle Mexican Grill
CMGNYSEUSD
- — Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- — Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- — Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $35.92 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $35.61–$36.05 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 2.6M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 10:51 AM ET.
- Feb 2 projected Projected for 2027-02-02 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $27.31–$41.42 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own CMG if it sustains same-store demand and pricing power while expanding units, the business can compound cash returns and EPS over time.
CMG price history
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INVESTMENT THESIS
What must happen next
Chipotle's strong unit economics (high average unit volume and operating leverage) will keep producing substantial operating cash flow to fund investment and returns.StrengtheningMateriality: High
operating_cash_flow rose from 1,323,179,000 (FY2022) to 1,783,477,000 (FY2023) to 2,105,076,000 (FY2024) and 2,113,926,000 (FY2025). If true, the company can grow the restaurant base and return cash to shareholders without diluting economics; if false, growth will require either margin-sacrificing promotions or external financing.
Watch: A major food-safety incident or brand-damaging recall that reduces traffic and AUV across markets.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
operating_cash_flow rose from 1,323,179,000 (FY2022) to 1,783,477,000 (FY2023) to 2,105,076,000 (FY2024) and 2,113,926,000 (FY2025).
Open source ↗Top-line growth will continue to come from a mix of new restaurant openings and maintained positive same-store sales, allowing revenue to scale without a step-change in per-store economics.StrengtheningMateriality: High
revenue increased from 7,547,061,000 (FY2021) to 8,634,652,000 (FY2022) to 9,871,649,000 (FY2023) to 11,313,853,000 (FY2024) and 11,925,601,000 (FY2025). Sustained revenue growth keeps unit economics leveraged and provides the base for margin and cash expansion; if comp sales decline or openings stall, revenue growth will slow and optionality for buybacks/capex shrinks.
Watch: Macro-driven traffic declines (e.g., recessionary cutbacks to eating out) producing negative same-store sales.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
revenue increased from 7,547,061,000 (FY2021) to 8,634,652,000 (FY2022) to 9,871,649,000 (FY2023) to 11,313,853,000 (FY2024) and 11,925,601,000 (FY2025).
Open source ↗Chipotle's operating margins will remain resilient because the company can largely pass commodity and labor cost increases through to customers and benefit from operating leverage as sales scale.HoldingMateriality: Medium
operating_income rose from 804,943,000 (FY2021) to 1,160,403,000 (FY2022) to 1,557,813,000 (FY2023) to 1,916,333,000 (FY2024) and 1,935,798,000 (FY2025). Margin resilience is the causal link from revenue growth to durable operating income and free cash flow; if margins compress, free cash and EPS growth will be materially weaker.
Watch: Sustained commodity inflation (e.g., tortilla, meat, produce) that cannot be passed to customers without reducing traffic.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
operating_income rose from 804,943,000 (FY2021) to 1,160,403,000 (FY2022) to 1,557,813,000 (FY2023) to 1,916,333,000 (FY2024) and 1,935,798,000 (FY2025).
Open source ↗Chipotle can continue to grow EPS through a combination of organic cash generation and capital returns if operating cash flow and margins remain stable.HoldingMateriality: Medium
eps_diluted rose from 0.64 (FY2022) to 0.89 (FY2023) to 1.11 (FY2024) and 1.14 (FY2025). EPS growth supports valuation and total return even if pure revenue growth slows; if cash generation falters, EPS will be vulnerable to exposure from capex or buyback reductions.
Watch: Aggressive capital deployment into formats or geographies that lower return on invested capital.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
eps_diluted rose from 0.64 (FY2022) to 0.89 (FY2023) to 1.11 (FY2024) and 1.14 (FY2025).
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Chipotle's strong unit economics (high average unit volume and operating leverage) will keep producing substantial operating cash flow to fund investment and returns. If true, the company can grow the restaurant base and return cash to shareholders without diluting economics; if false, growth will require either margin-sacrificing promotions or external financing.
Top-line growth will continue to come from a mix of new restaurant openings and maintained positive same-store sales, allowing revenue to scale without a step-change in per-store economics. Sustained revenue growth keeps unit economics leveraged and provides the base for margin and cash expansion; if comp sales decline or openings stall, revenue growth will slow and optionality for buybacks/capex shrinks.
Chipotle's operating margins will remain resilient because the company can largely pass commodity and labor cost increases through to customers and benefit from operating leverage as sales scale. Margin resilience is the causal link from revenue growth to durable operating income and free cash flow; if margins compress, free cash and EPS growth will be materially weaker.
Chipotle can continue to grow EPS through a combination of organic cash generation and capital returns if operating cash flow and margins remain stable. EPS growth supports valuation and total return even if pure revenue growth slows; if cash generation falters, EPS will be vulnerable to exposure from capex or buyback reductions.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
it sustains same-store demand and pricing power while expanding units, the business can compound cash returns and EPS over time.
BULL CASE / BEAR CASE
Bull case and bear case for Chipotle Mexican Grill
Where the evidence on Chipotle Mexican Grill stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 15, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 2 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Chipotle's strong unit economics (high average unit volume and operating leverage) will keep producing substantial operating cash flow to fund investment and returns.
Top-line growth will continue to come from a mix of new restaurant openings and maintained positive same-store sales, allowing revenue to scale without a step-change in per-store economics.
Chipotle's operating margins will remain resilient because the company can largely pass commodity and labor cost increases through to customers and benefit from operating leverage as sales scale.
Chipotle can continue to grow EPS through a combination of organic cash generation and capital returns if operating cash flow and margins remain stable.
Bear case: what would count against it
A major food-safety incident or brand-damaging recall that reduces traffic and AUV across markets.
Macro-driven traffic declines (e.g., recessionary cutbacks to eating out) producing negative same-store sales.
Sustained commodity inflation (e.g., tortilla, meat, produce) that cannot be passed to customers without reducing traffic.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Chipotle Mexican Grill’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Chipotle Mexican Grill, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Chipotle Mexican Grill.
- Analyst downgradecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 12,641 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MIXEDDirector or principal officer change.
Chipotle Mexican Grill filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-14: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MIXEDRegulation FD disclosure.
Chipotle Mexican Grill filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-05: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MIXEDReported results of operations (earnings release).
Chipotle Mexican Grill filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-29: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
RISKS / FALSIFIERS
What could break the thesis
- A major food-safety incident or brand-damaging recall that reduces traffic and AUV across markets.
- Macro-driven traffic declines (e.g., recessionary cutbacks to eating out) producing negative same-store sales.
- Sustained commodity inflation (e.g., tortilla, meat, produce) that cannot be passed to customers without reducing traffic.
- Aggressive capital deployment into formats or geographies that lower return on invested capital.
CMG news
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FINANCIAL STATEMENTS
CMG income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
CMG: quick answers
- When does Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) report earnings next?
- Chipotle Mexican Grill's next results are projected for February 2, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 28, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is CMG's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 41.4M CMG shares were sold short, 3.27% of its shares outstanding, up 8.0% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 1.7 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. CMG short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded CMG?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 9 trades in CMG by 2 filers: 5 purchases and 4 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed CMG trade
- Which well-known investors own CMG?
- 1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported CMG shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios
CMG in well-known investors’ portfolios
1 of 37 funds reported CMG shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.01% | $2.5M | −2.1% | Q2 2026 |