Builders FirstSource
BLDRNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $62.93 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $61.01–$62.50 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 1.4M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 16 projected Projected for 2027-02-16 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $49.67–$131.50 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own BLDR if margins and cash flow recover from the recent trough.
BLDR price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
National scale (manufacturing + 585 locations + installation services) will allow BLDR to win share from smaller local suppliers and capture higher-priced production-homebuilder contracts, sustaining top-line and pricing advantage.HoldingMateriality: High
Item 1 Business: operates approximately 585 locations in 43 states and targets large production homebuilders. If true, revenue stabilizes or grows with higher realized selling prices and less margin volatility; if false, revenues stagnate and price competition erodes margins.
Watch: Large homebuilders vertically integrate sourcing or award exclusive contracts to competitors, reducing BLDR's access to high-volume business.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Item 1 Business: operates approximately 585 locations in 43 states and targets large production homebuilders.
Open source ↗Growing adoption of prefabricated components and Paradigm digital solutions will shift product mix toward manufactured products and millwork, lifting gross margins over time versus commodity lumber distribution.HoldingMateriality: High
Item 1 Business / MD&A: emphasis on factory-built trusses, wall panels, Ready-Frame, and Paradigm software to drive efficiency and prefabrication adoption. A higher share of manufactured, assembled and installed products increases gross_profit per dollar of revenue and creates stickier customer relationships; failure to shift mix leaves BLDR exposed to commodity margin volatility.
Watch: Homebuilders resist prefab adoption or prefer competing prefab suppliers, slowing mix shift.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Item 1 Business / MD&A: emphasis on factory-built trusses, wall panels, Ready-Frame, and Paradigm software to drive efficiency and prefabrication.
Open source ↗Scale and integrated operations will sustain positive operating cash flow and allow BLDR to convert earnings volatility into stable free cash flow through working-capital management and operating leverage as volumes recover.HoldingMateriality: Medium
operating_cash_flow remained positive across 2022–2025 (2022: 3.599B. Sustained positive operating_cash_flow funds capex, debt paydown and shareholder returns; if conversion fails, growth or buybacks could be constrained and valuation pressured.
Watch: A prolonged housing slowdown increases inventory and receivables, straining working capital.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
operating_cash_flow remained positive across 2022–2025 (2022: 3.599B.
Open source ↗The current multiple (EV/EBITDA ~8.25; P/E ~15.6) embeds a meaningful recovery in profitability; the stock will only outperform if operating income and margins recover materially from the 2025 trough.HoldingMateriality: Medium
operating_income fell from 3.770B (2022) to 0.786B (2025), showing the degree of compression that must be reversed. If margins rebound, multiple can expand or be validated by stronger cash flow; if margins stay depressed, valuation will re-rate lower even if revenue stabilizes.
Watch: Housing demand remains weak and competitors keep pricing pressure, preventing operating leverage from returning.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
operating_income fell from 3.770B (2022) to 0.786B (2025), showing the degree of compression that must be reversed.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
National scale (manufacturing + 585 locations + installation services) will allow BLDR to win share from smaller local suppliers and capture higher-priced production-homebuilder contracts, sustaining top-line and pricing advantage. If true, revenue stabilizes or grows with higher realized selling prices and less margin volatility; if false, revenues stagnate and price competition erodes margins.
Growing adoption of prefabricated components and Paradigm digital solutions will shift product mix toward manufactured products and millwork, lifting gross margins over time versus commodity lumber distribution. A higher share of manufactured, assembled and installed products increases gross_profit per dollar of revenue and creates stickier customer relationships; failure to shift mix leaves BLDR exposed to commodity margin volatility.
Scale and integrated operations will sustain positive operating cash flow and allow BLDR to convert earnings volatility into stable free cash flow through working-capital management and operating leverage as volumes recover. Sustained positive operating_cash_flow funds capex, debt paydown and shareholder returns; if conversion fails, growth or buybacks could be constrained and valuation pressured.
The current multiple (EV/EBITDA ~8.25; P/E ~15.6) embeds a meaningful recovery in profitability; the stock will only outperform if operating income and margins recover materially from the 2025 trough. If margins rebound, multiple can expand or be validated by stronger cash flow; if margins stay depressed, valuation will re-rate lower even if revenue stabilizes.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
margins and cash flow recover from the recent trough.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Builders FirstSource
Where the evidence on Builders FirstSource stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 9, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 4 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
National scale (manufacturing + 585 locations + installation services) will allow BLDR to win share from smaller local suppliers and capture higher-priced production-homebuilder contracts, sustaining top-line and pricing advantage.
Growing adoption of prefabricated components and Paradigm digital solutions will shift product mix toward manufactured products and millwork, lifting gross margins over time versus commodity lumber distribution.
Scale and integrated operations will sustain positive operating cash flow and allow BLDR to convert earnings volatility into stable free cash flow through working-capital management and operating leverage as volumes recover.
The current multiple (EV/EBITDA ~8.25; P/E ~15.6) embeds a meaningful recovery in profitability; the stock will only outperform if operating income and margins recover materially from the 2025 trough.
Bear case: what would count against it
Large homebuilders vertically integrate sourcing or award exclusive contracts to competitors, reducing BLDR's access to high-volume business.
Homebuilders resist prefab adoption or prefer competing prefab suppliers, slowing mix shift.
A prolonged housing slowdown increases inventory and receivables, straining working capital.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Builders FirstSource’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Builders FirstSource, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Builders FirstSource.
- Analyst downgradecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 12,641 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
- CEO / officer changecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 16,849 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 2% over the next six months, and 38% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
Early warning
The break condition read on the trailing twelve months through Builders FirstSource’s latest quarterly report, ahead of the annual figure it is written on.
- Operating-margin compression, trailing 12 months
Across all companies, this kind of early warning has happened 2,641 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 36% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
Several kinds of break have stacked on Builders FirstSource at once. A cluster is a stronger read than any one signal alone.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Builders FirstSource filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-29: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Builders FirstSource filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-07: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Builders FirstSource filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-30: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Large homebuilders vertically integrate sourcing or award exclusive contracts to competitors, reducing BLDR's access to high-volume business.
- Homebuilders resist prefab adoption or prefer competing prefab suppliers, slowing mix shift.
- A prolonged housing slowdown increases inventory and receivables, straining working capital.
- Housing demand remains weak and competitors keep pricing pressure, preventing operating leverage from returning.
BLDR news
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Financial statements
BLDR income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
BLDR: quick answers
- When does Builders FirstSource (BLDR) report earnings next?
- Builders FirstSource's next results are projected for February 16, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 29, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is BLDR's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 8.8M BLDR shares were sold short, 8.22% of its shares outstanding, down 11.0% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.1 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. BLDR short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded BLDR?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 4 trades in BLDR by 2 filers: 3 purchases and 1 sale. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed BLDR trade
- Which well-known investors own BLDR?
- 3 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported BLDR shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: D1 Capital Partners (Dan Sundheim), 0.4%; Miller Value Partners (Bill Miller), 0.4%; Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios
BLDR in well-known investors’ portfolios
3 of 37 funds reported BLDR shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan SundheimD1 Capital Partners | 0.42% | $147M | New | Q2 2026 |
| Bill MillerMiller Value Partners | 0.40% | $1.7M | +1.2% | Q2 2026 |
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.02% | $4.6M | +1,163% | Q2 2026 |