Markets · NVDA up to 200x
Leveraged NVDA bets trade 4.1 times their recent median volume as the price rises
The NVDA perp, which keeps trading when its own market is shut, traded $2.22 billion in 24 hours. Its price rose 4.8% over the same day.
What's happening
Trading in the NVDA+4.55% perp ran at 4.1 times its recent median volume over 24 hours, and the price rose 4.8%. On trade.xyz, a crypto exchange on Hyperliquid, trading met the same test on two earlier days, and a week later the price was lower after one and higher after the other.
The NVDA perp keeps trading while the stock market is shut, nights and weekends included. On trade.xyz, traders pick their leverage on the NVDA perp, from one up to 20 times. At 20 times, every dollar of deposit controls $20 of NVDA. Unlike buying the stock, the NVDA perp gives no ownership of Nvidia shares.
Rolling 24-hour volume on venues present in every reading, through 8:21 p.m. ET, November 12, 2026. The windows can overlap. The line is the median of the earlier readings, not a long-run normal day.
| November 5 | $353.8M |
|---|---|
| November 9 | $764.4M |
| November 10 | $554.8M |
| November 11 | $537.2M |
| November 12 | $2.22B |
It traded $2.22 billion, against a median of $546.0 million in the earlier 24-hour periods. The historical comparison on trade.xyz estimates turnover from units traded times the daily close, measured against the prior 14 days. US traders can trade NVDA perps on Kalshi, while trade.xyz offers more leverage but is closed to US residents.
- Volume against its recent median
- 4.1 times Over the last day
- Traded in 24 hours
- $2.22 billion Across the venues read
- Price change in 24 hours
- +4.8% Weighted by open interest
- Earlier surges lower a week later
- 1 of 2 Completed days meeting the historical test on trade.xyz
What happened the last 2 times
The first such surge in trading came on April 27, 2026, when NVDA rose 5.0% in a day, and a week later it was 9.7% lower.
Four months later, on 27 August, NVDA rose 3.0% in a day, and a week later it was 1.6% higher. The median change a week later was a fall of 4.0%.
The backdrop
Nvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) is the company behind the shares the perp tracks. The NVDA perp trades at $168.57, up 4.8% from $160.89 24 hours earlier (weighted by open interest across venues). $905.7 million of positions are open across 31 venues.
On Veranta, 50% of open positions are long: $18,000 long and $18,000 short.
Holding a long costs money right now. Longs pay shorts 8.2% a year, weighted by open interest.
The two sides
The table models a long and a short at the trade.xyz leverage cap. Actual liquidation depends on the entry price, collateral and maintenance margin on the account.
NVDA traded $2.22 billion against a recent median of $546.0 million.
| Hypothetical long | Hypothetical short | |
|---|---|---|
| The bet | NVDA keeps rising. | NVDA falls. |
| Liquidation move and price | Model estimate: A 2.6% fall, near $164.09, at trade.xyz's 20x cap | Model estimate: A 2.4% rise, near $172.52, at trade.xyz's 20x cap |
| Who is positioned this way | Longs, paying 8.2% a year to hold | Shorts, paid 8.2% a year by longs |
| Entry reference price | $168.41, the perp's latest price | $168.41, the perp's latest price |
Why this could be wrong
Two earlier cases are a small sample. The record shows what followed them, not why, and the thresholds are ours.
The yearly rate is today's pace, not a locked-in cost. No cause for the surge is known from this data.
What happens next
The completed trade.xyz day met the test at 16.0 times its prior median. Its seven-day comparison ends at 7 p.m. Eastern Time (ET) Thursday.
If the closing price seven days later is above $168.17, the contract will have gained over the interval.