Markets · NVDA up to 20x

Nvidia overnight contract down 6.5% as most others fall

Estimated turnover reached $1.58bn across 71 trade.xyz equity perps priced at both endpoints. 61 fell and 10 rose between 4pm ET Wednesday and 6am ET Thursday.

The NvidiaNVDA-8.01% perp fell 6.53% overnight on trade.xyz. An estimated $975.1m changed hands between 4pm ET Wednesday and 6am ET Thursday. Its own hourly closing price went from $173.90 to $162.54 over that window. Both figures are perp prices, not stock-exchange closes. Its largest hourly move was 5.40%, between 5pm and 6pm ET on Wednesday.

The largest percentage move was elsewhere: Zhipu AI's perp was 11.07% lower, but on estimated turnover of $4.3m.

Largest overnight moves among equity perps with estimated turnover of $1.0m or more
Search timestamp (ET)
Zhipu AI (ZHIPU)$64.82$57.65-11.07%$4.3mNone found
MiniMax$23.11$21.38-7.51%$1.2mNone found
Unitree$111.93$103.87-7.20%$26.7mNone found
Kioxia$63.24$58.87-6.91%$8.3mNone found
Nvidia (NVDA)$173.90$162.54-6.53%$975.1m10:28pm (Wednesday)
CoreWeave (CRWV)$60.75$57.00-6.17%$23.9m10:07pm (Wednesday)
Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI)$55.86$53.07-4.98%$1.3mNone found
Strategy (MSTR)$122.22$116.52-4.66%$17.6m7:33pm (Wednesday)
Alibaba (BABA)$101.54$97.22-4.25%$2.1m9:57pm (Wednesday)
CXMT$6.45$6.18-4.22%$18.0m9:01pm (Wednesday)
Ranked by absolute percentage change among perps with estimated turnover of at least $1.0m between 4:00pm ET Wednesday and 6:00am ET Thursday (2026-11-12). Both prices are completed trade.xyz perp hourly closes from Hyperliquid, not stock-exchange closes. Turnover is estimated from hourly volume and high-low midpoints. Search timestamps come from Bing News RSS and are not independently verified publication times. The headlines are in the sources. Search results do not establish when news first appeared or caused a move.

Nvidia alone was 62% of the estimated $1.58bn traded across 71 stock perps overnight. 61 of the 71 contracts were lower.

Every move in the table cleared $1.0m in estimated turnover. That floor does not measure the depth available for a new order.

The lead
Nvidia, -6.53%
$173.90 at 4pm ET Wednesday in the perp, against $162.54 at 6am ET, on estimated turnover of $975.1m
Widest gap
Zhipu AI, -11.07%
On estimated turnover of $4.3m in the window
The split
10 up, 61 down
Of 71 stock perps priced at both ends of the window
The window
14 hours
4:00pm ET Wednesday to 6:00am ET Thursday

Why it matters

For a hypothetical position with $10,000 of starting exposure, the full price change implies a gross $653 gain for a short and loss for a long. This assumes the position remained open throughout, before trading fees and funding payments between longs and shorts. If backed by $1,000 of starting collateral, that price change equals 65% of the collateral. Actual margin and the path of prices determine whether liquidation could close a position before the endpoint.

The news search matched a report on Nvidia from Bloomberg: "Nvidia Punches a Hole in Bull Case for AI Stocks." The table gives search timestamps, not verified publication times. They cannot establish whether coverage preceded a move.

The contracts give price exposure without ownership of the underlying shares. Turnover shows activity, but these candles alone do not establish why a contract moved or how closely it tracked the share.

Estimated turnover sums each completed hour's contract volume multiplied by the midpoint of its high and low. It is an approximation of dollar activity, not the exact value of every execution.

What the comparison can establish

The table compares the same derivative at two times. To measure whether the Nvidia perp led or lagged the underlying security, a separate series of time-matched security prices is needed. That series is not part of this dataset.

How this was reported. Prices are completed trade.xyz perp hourly closes at 4pm ET Wednesday and 6am ET Thursday. Returns compare those two derivative prices; no cash-equity price series is used. Estimated turnover sums volume times each hour's high-low midpoint across the completed hours in the window. 71 of 213 equity markets in the inventory were priced. Unpriced markets are excluded, not assigned zero activity. The table ranks absolute moves above $1.0m estimated turnover. The lead ranks absolute move times estimated turnover among US-listed underlying names, with a fallback to the largest table move. The hypothetical position calculation excludes fees and historical funding and assumes it survives the full window. It does not establish account profit or liquidation. The listed leverage cap belongs to the trade.xyz contract. Reports are selected using Bing news-search timestamps, which can differ from publisher times. They do not establish publication timing, a comprehensive news history or a cause for the price move.

Sources and data receipts (8)
How perps work
  • A perp (perpetual future) is a contract that tracks a price with no expiry date, so a trader can hold a bet that it rises (long) or falls (short) for as long as they like.
  • Funding is a small payment between the two sides on a schedule (every hour on some venues, every eight hours on others): when the perp trades above the price it tracks, longs pay shorts, and when it trades below, shorts pay longs.
  • Open interest is the value of all positions still open. Every long has a short on the other side, so it is one net figure, not a count of buyers or sellers.
  • Leverage lets a trader control a position larger than their deposit, up to a cap the venue sets for each market, such as 20x.
  • Liquidation is the venue closing all or part of a position when the equity supporting it falls below the required maintenance margin. The trigger depends on the venue's rules, collateral, other positions sharing that collateral, fees and funding. A leverage setting alone does not determine the liquidation price.
  • What the price follows is the venue's choice: each venue decides which index or contract its perp tracks, so two venues' "oil" or "gold" perps can follow different things.

Christian Rourk is a data and AI engineer and an early advocate of on-chain perpetual futures, active in the perps community on X and Discord. An AI engineer at FreightVerify, Christian was previously an analytics engineer at Riot Games and led a business intelligence team at Rocket Loans. At OptimistFi, Christian covers the traders and the community behind the perps market, and the data under what they say. Tips: hello@optimistfi.com

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