Zillow Group

ZGNASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$29.77
+$0.26 (+0.88%)Today 1M −0.33%
After hours$29.80+0.10%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$29.51
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$29.08–$29.78
Regular-session low and high so far today.
1.3M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Feb 9 projected
Projected for 2027-02-09 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$27.25–$74.80
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own ZG if its consumer real-estate audience remains the scarce top-of-funnel that agents, landlords, lenders, and transaction partners must pay to access, and if management converts that audience into GAAP operating profit without rebuilding a low-margin balance-sheet-heavy.

ZG price history

Latest price$29.77Today+$0.26 (+0.88%)
ZG +2.73%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Zillow’s brand and consumer search audience remain scarce enough that real-estate professionals keep buying its leads rather than shifting budget to rival portals, brokerage platforms, or direct-response channels.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual revenue increased to $2.583 billion in FY2025 from $2.236 billion in FY2024, a 15.5% increase. If this holds, Zillow can keep converting housing intent into revenue; if it breaks, the core marketplace loses pricing power before expenses can be leveraged.

    Watch: CoStar’s Homes.com, Realtor.com, Redfin, or Google capture enough consumer home-search traffic that agents see Zillow leads as less scarce.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual revenue increased to $2.583 billion in FY2025 from $2.236 billion in FY2024, a 15.5% increase.

    Open source ↗
  • The post-iBuying business remains economically attractive because Zillow monetizes information, intent, advertising, software, and referrals rather than taking principal home-inventory risk at scale.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual gross profit was $1.915 billion in FY2025 on $2.583 billion of revenue, implying a high gross margin for a digital marketplace model. High gross margins give Zillow room to fund product investment and still compound value; a shift toward low-margin services would make revenue growth much less valuable.

    Watch: Management expands into mortgage, closing, or transaction services in a way that requires heavy staffing, subsidies, or balance-sheet risk.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual gross profit was $1.915 billion in FY2025 on $2.583 billion of revenue, implying a high gross margin for.

    Open source ↗
  • Zillow’s integrated housing products create operating leverage, with incremental revenue requiring less incremental sales, product, marketing, and support cost than the current platform base.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual operating loss narrowed to $34 million in FY2025 from a $197 million loss in FY2024. This is the bridge from a useful platform to a valuable equity: if operating leverage does not appear, revenue growth will not translate into meaningful per-share earnings.

    Watch: New touring, mortgage, rentals, or transaction products require large human service teams, compliance costs, or incentives that offset marketplace leverage.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating loss narrowed to $34 million in FY2025 from a $197 million loss in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
  • Zillow’s marketplace funnel remains resilient enough through weak housing turnover that the company can keep generating operating cash while waiting for transaction volumes to normalize.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual operating cash flow was positive at $368 million in FY2025. Positive cash generation lets Zillow keep investing through the real-estate cycle; if cash generation breaks, the company becomes more dependent on cost cuts or external capital.

    Watch: Persistently high mortgage rates keep homeowners locked in and reduce agent advertising budgets tied to transaction volume.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating cash flow was positive at $368 million in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • Zillow’s balance sheet gives management time to invest in product integration and withstand housing-market volatility without relying on distressed financing.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Cash and cash equivalents were $768 million at FY2025 year-end. Financial flexibility increases the odds that Zillow can play offense through the cycle; if cash is consumed or leverage rises, the strategic runway narrows.

    Watch: Large acquisitions, aggressive buybacks, litigation, or restructuring consume cash before the integrated marketplace strategy proves operating leverage.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Cash and cash equivalents were $768 million at FY2025 year-end.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

Zillow’s brand and consumer search audience remain scarce enough that real-estate professionals keep buying its leads rather than shifting budget to rival portals, brokerage platforms, or direct-response channels. If this holds, Zillow can keep converting housing intent into revenue; if it breaks, the core marketplace loses pricing power before expenses can be leveraged.

The post-iBuying business remains economically attractive because Zillow monetizes information, intent, advertising, software, and referrals rather than taking principal home-inventory risk at scale. High gross margins give Zillow room to fund product investment and still compound value; a shift toward low-margin services would make revenue growth much less valuable.

Zillow’s integrated housing products create operating leverage, with incremental revenue requiring less incremental sales, product, marketing, and support cost than the current platform base. This is the bridge from a useful platform to a valuable equity: if operating leverage does not appear, revenue growth will not translate into meaningful per-share earnings.

Zillow’s marketplace funnel remains resilient enough through weak housing turnover that the company can keep generating operating cash while waiting for transaction volumes to normalize. Positive cash generation lets Zillow keep investing through the real-estate cycle; if cash generation breaks, the company becomes more dependent on cost cuts or external capital.

Zillow’s balance sheet gives management time to invest in product integration and withstand housing-market volatility without relying on distressed financing. Financial flexibility increases the odds that Zillow can play offense through the cycle; if cash is consumed or leverage rises, the strategic runway narrows.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

its consumer real-estate audience remains the scarce top-of-funnel that agents, landlords, lenders, and transaction partners must pay to access, and if management converts that audience into GAAP operating profit without rebuilding a low-margin balance-sheet-heavy.

Evidence assessed Nov 7, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Zillow Group

Where the evidence on Zillow Group stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 7, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 4 strengthening and 1 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Zillow’s brand and consumer search audience remain scarce enough that real-estate professionals keep buying its leads rather than shifting budget to rival portals, brokerage platforms, or direct-response channels.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The post-iBuying business remains economically attractive because Zillow monetizes information, intent, advertising, software, and referrals rather than taking principal home-inventory risk at scale.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Zillow’s integrated housing products create operating leverage, with incremental revenue requiring less incremental sales, product, marketing, and support cost than the current platform base.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Zillow’s marketplace funnel remains resilient enough through weak housing turnover that the company can keep generating operating cash while waiting for transaction volumes to normalize.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Zillow’s balance sheet gives management time to invest in product integration and withstand housing-market volatility without relying on distressed financing.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • CoStar’s Homes.com, Realtor.com, Redfin, or Google capture enough consumer home-search traffic that agents see Zillow leads as less scarce.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Management expands into mortgage, closing, or transaction services in a way that requires heavy staffing, subsidies, or balance-sheet risk.

    sec.gov ↗

  • New touring, mortgage, rentals, or transaction products require large human service teams, compliance costs, or incentives that offset marketplace leverage.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

What has broken in Zillow Group’s thesis

Each break OptimistFi flagged on Zillow Group, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Zillow Group.

peers+14%-15%-1%12 mo agonow+6 mo
Daily price, then where similar breaks led across the market: the typical -1% path vs comparable companies over six months, inside the middle-half range (+14% to -15%). A base rate, not a forecast.
  • Analyst downgradecondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 12,641 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

  • CEO / officer changecondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 16,849 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 2% over the next six months, and 38% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

Several kinds of break have stacked on Zillow Group at once. A cluster is a stronger read than any one signal alone.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against comparable companies after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Zillow Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-04: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Entered a material definitive agreement.

    Zillow Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-28: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Director or principal officer change.

    Zillow Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-17: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • CoStar’s Homes.com, Realtor.com, Redfin, or Google capture enough consumer home-search traffic that agents see Zillow leads as less scarce.
  • Management expands into mortgage, closing, or transaction services in a way that requires heavy staffing, subsidies, or balance-sheet risk.
  • New touring, mortgage, rentals, or transaction products require large human service teams, compliance costs, or incentives that offset marketplace leverage.
  • Persistently high mortgage rates keep homeowners locked in and reduce agent advertising budgets tied to transaction volume.
  • Large acquisitions, aggressive buybacks, litigation, or restructuring consume cash before the integrated marketplace strategy proves operating leverage.

ZG news

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Financial statements

ZG income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

ZG: quick answers

When does Zillow Group (ZG) report earnings next?
Zillow Group's next results are projected for February 9, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 4, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is ZG's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 4.0M ZG shares were sold short, down 8.5% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 4.8 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. ZG short interest history
Have members of Congress traded ZG?
Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 4 trades in ZG by 1 filer: 2 purchases and 2 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed ZG trade
Which well-known investors own ZG?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported ZG shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Coatue Management (Philippe Laffont), 0.0%. Fund portfolios

ZG in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported ZG shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Philippe LaffontCoatue Management0.02%$10.3MNo changeQ2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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