Zillow Group
ZGNASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $29.51 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $29.08–$29.78 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 1.3M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 9 projected Projected for 2027-02-09 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $27.25–$74.80 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own ZG if its consumer real-estate audience remains the scarce top-of-funnel that agents, landlords, lenders, and transaction partners must pay to access, and if management converts that audience into GAAP operating profit without rebuilding a low-margin balance-sheet-heavy.
ZG price history
Loading recent earnings…
Investment thesis
What must happen next
Zillow’s brand and consumer search audience remain scarce enough that real-estate professionals keep buying its leads rather than shifting budget to rival portals, brokerage platforms, or direct-response channels.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual revenue increased to $2.583 billion in FY2025 from $2.236 billion in FY2024, a 15.5% increase. If this holds, Zillow can keep converting housing intent into revenue; if it breaks, the core marketplace loses pricing power before expenses can be leveraged.
Watch: CoStar’s Homes.com, Realtor.com, Redfin, or Google capture enough consumer home-search traffic that agents see Zillow leads as less scarce.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual revenue increased to $2.583 billion in FY2025 from $2.236 billion in FY2024, a 15.5% increase.
Open source ↗The post-iBuying business remains economically attractive because Zillow monetizes information, intent, advertising, software, and referrals rather than taking principal home-inventory risk at scale.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual gross profit was $1.915 billion in FY2025 on $2.583 billion of revenue, implying a high gross margin for a digital marketplace model. High gross margins give Zillow room to fund product investment and still compound value; a shift toward low-margin services would make revenue growth much less valuable.
Watch: Management expands into mortgage, closing, or transaction services in a way that requires heavy staffing, subsidies, or balance-sheet risk.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual gross profit was $1.915 billion in FY2025 on $2.583 billion of revenue, implying a high gross margin for.
Open source ↗Zillow’s integrated housing products create operating leverage, with incremental revenue requiring less incremental sales, product, marketing, and support cost than the current platform base.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating loss narrowed to $34 million in FY2025 from a $197 million loss in FY2024. This is the bridge from a useful platform to a valuable equity: if operating leverage does not appear, revenue growth will not translate into meaningful per-share earnings.
Watch: New touring, mortgage, rentals, or transaction products require large human service teams, compliance costs, or incentives that offset marketplace leverage.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating loss narrowed to $34 million in FY2025 from a $197 million loss in FY2024.
Open source ↗Zillow’s marketplace funnel remains resilient enough through weak housing turnover that the company can keep generating operating cash while waiting for transaction volumes to normalize.HoldingMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating cash flow was positive at $368 million in FY2025. Positive cash generation lets Zillow keep investing through the real-estate cycle; if cash generation breaks, the company becomes more dependent on cost cuts or external capital.
Watch: Persistently high mortgage rates keep homeowners locked in and reduce agent advertising budgets tied to transaction volume.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating cash flow was positive at $368 million in FY2025.
Open source ↗Zillow’s balance sheet gives management time to invest in product integration and withstand housing-market volatility without relying on distressed financing.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Cash and cash equivalents were $768 million at FY2025 year-end. Financial flexibility increases the odds that Zillow can play offense through the cycle; if cash is consumed or leverage rises, the strategic runway narrows.
Watch: Large acquisitions, aggressive buybacks, litigation, or restructuring consume cash before the integrated marketplace strategy proves operating leverage.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Cash and cash equivalents were $768 million at FY2025 year-end.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
Loading the original research archive…
Original research
Zillow’s brand and consumer search audience remain scarce enough that real-estate professionals keep buying its leads rather than shifting budget to rival portals, brokerage platforms, or direct-response channels. If this holds, Zillow can keep converting housing intent into revenue; if it breaks, the core marketplace loses pricing power before expenses can be leveraged.
The post-iBuying business remains economically attractive because Zillow monetizes information, intent, advertising, software, and referrals rather than taking principal home-inventory risk at scale. High gross margins give Zillow room to fund product investment and still compound value; a shift toward low-margin services would make revenue growth much less valuable.
Zillow’s integrated housing products create operating leverage, with incremental revenue requiring less incremental sales, product, marketing, and support cost than the current platform base. This is the bridge from a useful platform to a valuable equity: if operating leverage does not appear, revenue growth will not translate into meaningful per-share earnings.
Zillow’s marketplace funnel remains resilient enough through weak housing turnover that the company can keep generating operating cash while waiting for transaction volumes to normalize. Positive cash generation lets Zillow keep investing through the real-estate cycle; if cash generation breaks, the company becomes more dependent on cost cuts or external capital.
Zillow’s balance sheet gives management time to invest in product integration and withstand housing-market volatility without relying on distressed financing. Financial flexibility increases the odds that Zillow can play offense through the cycle; if cash is consumed or leverage rises, the strategic runway narrows.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
its consumer real-estate audience remains the scarce top-of-funnel that agents, landlords, lenders, and transaction partners must pay to access, and if management converts that audience into GAAP operating profit without rebuilding a low-margin balance-sheet-heavy.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Zillow Group
Where the evidence on Zillow Group stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 7, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 4 strengthening and 1 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Zillow’s brand and consumer search audience remain scarce enough that real-estate professionals keep buying its leads rather than shifting budget to rival portals, brokerage platforms, or direct-response channels.
The post-iBuying business remains economically attractive because Zillow monetizes information, intent, advertising, software, and referrals rather than taking principal home-inventory risk at scale.
Zillow’s integrated housing products create operating leverage, with incremental revenue requiring less incremental sales, product, marketing, and support cost than the current platform base.
Zillow’s marketplace funnel remains resilient enough through weak housing turnover that the company can keep generating operating cash while waiting for transaction volumes to normalize.
Zillow’s balance sheet gives management time to invest in product integration and withstand housing-market volatility without relying on distressed financing.
Bear case: what would count against it
CoStar’s Homes.com, Realtor.com, Redfin, or Google capture enough consumer home-search traffic that agents see Zillow leads as less scarce.
Management expands into mortgage, closing, or transaction services in a way that requires heavy staffing, subsidies, or balance-sheet risk.
New touring, mortgage, rentals, or transaction products require large human service teams, compliance costs, or incentives that offset marketplace leverage.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Zillow Group’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Zillow Group, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Zillow Group.
- Analyst downgradecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 12,641 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
- CEO / officer changecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 16,849 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 2% over the next six months, and 38% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
Several kinds of break have stacked on Zillow Group at once. A cluster is a stronger read than any one signal alone.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Zillow Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-04: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedEntered a material definitive agreement.
Zillow Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-28: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Zillow Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-17: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- CoStar’s Homes.com, Realtor.com, Redfin, or Google capture enough consumer home-search traffic that agents see Zillow leads as less scarce.
- Management expands into mortgage, closing, or transaction services in a way that requires heavy staffing, subsidies, or balance-sheet risk.
- New touring, mortgage, rentals, or transaction products require large human service teams, compliance costs, or incentives that offset marketplace leverage.
- Persistently high mortgage rates keep homeowners locked in and reduce agent advertising budgets tied to transaction volume.
- Large acquisitions, aggressive buybacks, litigation, or restructuring consume cash before the integrated marketplace strategy proves operating leverage.
ZG news
Loading headlines…
Financial statements
ZG income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
ZG: quick answers
- When does Zillow Group (ZG) report earnings next?
- Zillow Group's next results are projected for February 9, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 4, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is ZG's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 4.0M ZG shares were sold short, down 8.5% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 4.8 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. ZG short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded ZG?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 4 trades in ZG by 1 filer: 2 purchases and 2 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed ZG trade
- Which well-known investors own ZG?
- 1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported ZG shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Coatue Management (Philippe Laffont), 0.0%. Fund portfolios
ZG in well-known investors’ portfolios
1 of 37 funds reported ZG shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philippe LaffontCoatue Management | 0.02% | $10.3M | No change | Q2 2026 |
