Zillow Group
ZNASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $29.47 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $28.79–$29.91 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 3.5M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 12, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 9 projected Projected for 2027-02-09 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $26.67–$77.07 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own Z if Zillow converts scale consumer traffic and proprietary housing data into higher-value, two-sided transactions (agents, mortgages, rentals, SaaS) so that take-rates and revenue per transaction — not pure ad clicks — drive durable revenue and.
Z price history
Loading recent earnings…
Investment thesis
What must happen next
Scaling Enhanced Markets and Zillow Preferred increases revenue per transaction and conversion, turning traffic into higher-margin transaction revenue rather than low-margin display advertising.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Total revenue increased from $2,236,000,000 (FY 2024) to $2,583,000,000 (FY 2025). If true, Zillow's revenue growth and operating margins will be more durable and less cyclical; if false, growth will revert to ad-volume sensitivity and the valuation premium is at risk.
Watch: A broad housing-market contraction (lower TTV or transaction volumes) that reduces the pool of closable transactions and therefore the effectiveness of pay-on-close pricing.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Total revenue increased from $2,236,000,000 (FY 2024) to $2,583,000,000 (FY 2025).
Open source ↗Zillow's scale of consumer traffic and proprietary data (Zestimate and 173M-home database) sustain a durable lead-generation moat and pricing power for Premier Agent advertising and related monetization.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Gross profit rose from $1,709,000,000 (FY 2024) to $1,915,000,000 (FY 2025), implying strong monetization of content/marketplace assets. If the moat holds, Zillow can maintain high take-rates and gross margins; if consumers or agents migrate to alternatives or data utility erodes, pricing power and margins fall.
Watch: Major consumer search-share erosion (traffic decline) to competitors or new channels (social, MLS-direct) that reduces lead volume and weakens two-sided pricing.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Gross profit rose from $1,709,000,000 (FY 2024) to $1,915,000,000 (FY 2025), implying strong monetization of content/marketplace assets.
Open source ↗Zillow Home Loans can expand contribution margins and For Sale revenue by capturing origination and referral economics, improving overall profitability as origination scale and digital pre-approvals increase.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Operating loss narrowed from $(197,000,000) (FY 2024) to $(34,000,000) (FY 2025), consistent with improving economics across the For Sale/Mortgages mix. Successful mortgage scaling converts low-margin referral revenue into higher-margin originating and secondary-market economics; failure leaves Zillow exposed to cyclical referral advertising and interest-rate risk.
Watch: A sustained high mortgage-rate environment that suppresses origination volumes and margins, or secondary market dislocations that reduce economics of loan sales.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating loss narrowed from $(197,000,000) (FY 2024) to $(34,000,000) (FY 2025), consistent with improving economics across the For Sale/Mortgages mix.
Open source ↗Zillow's cash balance and positive operating cash flow provide optionality to invest in product rollout and take losses while scaling transactions, but shrinking cash reserves constrain that runway if operating cash flow weakens.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Cash and cash equivalents decreased from $1,082,000,000 (FY 2024) to $768,000,000 (FY 2025). Strong cash allows aggressive market expansion and product investment; a continued cash decline or lower operating cash flow during a housing slowdown would force retrenchment and slow scaling.
Watch: A sharp drop in transaction-related revenue (For Sale/Mortgages) that reduces operating cash flow and forces spending cuts.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Cash and cash equivalents decreased from $1,082,000,000 (FY 2024) to $768,000,000 (FY 2025).
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
Loading the original research archive…
Original research
Scaling Enhanced Markets and Zillow Preferred increases revenue per transaction and conversion, turning traffic into higher-margin transaction revenue rather than low-margin display advertising. If true, Zillow's revenue growth and operating margins will be more durable and less cyclical; if false, growth will revert to ad-volume sensitivity and the valuation premium is at risk.
Zillow's scale of consumer traffic and proprietary data (Zestimate and 173M-home database) sustain a durable lead-generation moat and pricing power for Premier Agent advertising and related monetization. If the moat holds, Zillow can maintain high take-rates and gross margins; if consumers or agents migrate to alternatives or data utility erodes, pricing power and margins fall.
Zillow Home Loans can expand contribution margins and For Sale revenue by capturing origination and referral economics, improving overall profitability as origination scale and digital pre-approvals increase. Successful mortgage scaling converts low-margin referral revenue into higher-margin originating and secondary-market economics; failure leaves Zillow exposed to cyclical referral advertising and interest-rate risk.
Zillow's cash balance and positive operating cash flow provide optionality to invest in product rollout and take losses while scaling transactions, but shrinking cash reserves constrain that runway if operating cash flow weakens. Strong cash allows aggressive market expansion and product investment; a continued cash decline or lower operating cash flow during a housing slowdown would force retrenchment and slow scaling.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Zillow converts scale consumer traffic and proprietary housing data into higher-value, two-sided transactions (agents, mortgages, rentals, SaaS) so that take-rates and revenue per transaction — not pure ad clicks — drive durable revenue and.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Zillow Group
Where the evidence on Zillow Group stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 12, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 2 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Scaling Enhanced Markets and Zillow Preferred increases revenue per transaction and conversion, turning traffic into higher-margin transaction revenue rather than low-margin display advertising.
Zillow's scale of consumer traffic and proprietary data (Zestimate and 173M-home database) sustain a durable lead-generation moat and pricing power for Premier Agent advertising and related monetization.
Zillow Home Loans can expand contribution margins and For Sale revenue by capturing origination and referral economics, improving overall profitability as origination scale and digital pre-approvals increase.
Zillow's cash balance and positive operating cash flow provide optionality to invest in product rollout and take losses while scaling transactions, but shrinking cash reserves constrain that runway if operating cash flow weakens.
Bear case: what would count against it
A broad housing-market contraction (lower TTV or transaction volumes) that reduces the pool of closable transactions and therefore the effectiveness of pay-on-close pricing.
Major consumer search-share erosion (traffic decline) to competitors or new channels (social, MLS-direct) that reduces lead volume and weakens two-sided pricing.
A sustained high mortgage-rate environment that suppresses origination volumes and margins, or secondary market dislocations that reduce economics of loan sales.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Zillow Group’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Zillow Group, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Zillow Group.
- CEO / officer changecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 16,849 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 2% over the next six months, and 38% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Zillow Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-04: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedEntered a material definitive agreement.
Zillow Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-28: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Zillow Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-17: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- A broad housing-market contraction (lower TTV or transaction volumes) that reduces the pool of closable transactions and therefore the effectiveness of pay-on-close pricing.
- Major consumer search-share erosion (traffic decline) to competitors or new channels (social, MLS-direct) that reduces lead volume and weakens two-sided pricing.
- A sustained high mortgage-rate environment that suppresses origination volumes and margins, or secondary market dislocations that reduce economics of loan sales.
- A sharp drop in transaction-related revenue (For Sale/Mortgages) that reduces operating cash flow and forces spending cuts.
Z news
Loading headlines…
Financial statements
Z income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
Z: quick answers
- When does Zillow Group (Z) report earnings next?
- Zillow Group's next results are projected for February 9, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 4, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is Z's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 12.8M Z shares were sold short, 7.19% of its shares outstanding, down 13.9% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.5 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. Z short interest history
- Which well-known investors own Z?
- 2 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported Z shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Coatue Management (Philippe Laffont), 0.1%; ARK Investment Management (Cathie Wood), 0.0%. Fund portfolios
Z in well-known investors’ portfolios
2 of 37 funds reported Z shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philippe LaffontCoatue Management | 0.05% | $23.3M | No change | Q2 2026 |
| Cathie WoodARK Investment Management | 0.03% | $4.8M | −8.5% | Q2 2026 |