XPO
XPONYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $188.21 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $184.73–$189.10 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 787.6K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 4 projected Projected for 2027-02-04 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $124.82–$232.05 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own XPO if its focused freight network keeps converting customer breadth and network density into structural operating leverage, not merely a cyclical rebound in freight.
XPO price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
XPO’s large customer base and multi-country location network should let it build lane density and defend price without chasing unprofitable freight.HoldingMateriality: High
Annual GAAP revenue increased from $6.168 billion in FY2020 to $8.157 billion in FY2025. If density and pricing hold, modest freight demand can still compound earnings; if they break, revenue growth becomes low-quality volume bought with margin.
Watch: Large shippers shift freight awards to Old Dominion Freight Line, FedEx Freight, Saia or Estes because XPO’s service levels lag.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Annual GAAP revenue increased from $6.168 billion in FY2020 to $8.157 billion in FY2025.
Open source ↗The investment case depends on XPO continuing to turn freight-network productivity, labor efficiency and routing/service execution into operating leverage.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Annual GAAP operating income rose from $97 million in FY2020 to $656 million in FY2025. This is the main path from a mature transportation revenue base to equity value creation; if productivity stalls, the business looks like a cyclical carrier rather than a compounder.
Watch: Union or non-union wage inflation, driver shortages or safety costs outpace XPO’s productivity gains.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Annual GAAP operating income rose from $97 million in FY2020 to $656 million in FY2025.
Open source ↗Because freight transportation is asset- and labor-intensive, XPO must fund network investment without weakening the balance sheet or consuming the cash needed for downturns.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Stockholders’ equity increased from $1.012 billion at FY2022 year-end to $1.861 billion at FY2025 year-end. If capital discipline holds, operating gains accrue to owners; if network upgrades require excessive cash or leverage, earnings quality and optionality deteriorate.
Watch: Terminal, fleet or technology investments rise materially while freight demand is soft, pressuring liquidity before returns are visible.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Stockholders’ equity increased from $1.012 billion at FY2022 year-end to $1.861 billion at FY2025 year-end.
Open source ↗XPO’s operating improvements must consistently reach common shareholders after interest, taxes and any restructuring or one-time items.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Annual GAAP diluted EPS improved from $1.60 in FY2023 to $2.64 in FY2025. Owners ultimately need operating leverage to become durable GAAP net income and diluted EPS, not just higher segment or operating profit.
Watch: Higher interest expense or refinancing costs absorb operating-income gains before they reach net income.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Annual GAAP diluted EPS improved from $1.60 in FY2023 to $2.64 in FY2025.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
XPO’s large customer base and multi-country location network should let it build lane density and defend price without chasing unprofitable freight. If density and pricing hold, modest freight demand can still compound earnings; if they break, revenue growth becomes low-quality volume bought with margin.
The investment case depends on XPO continuing to turn freight-network productivity, labor efficiency and routing/service execution into operating leverage. This is the main path from a mature transportation revenue base to equity value creation; if productivity stalls, the business looks like a cyclical carrier rather than a compounder.
Because freight transportation is asset- and labor-intensive, XPO must fund network investment without weakening the balance sheet or consuming the cash needed for downturns. If capital discipline holds, operating gains accrue to owners; if network upgrades require excessive cash or leverage, earnings quality and optionality deteriorate.
XPO’s operating improvements must consistently reach common shareholders after interest, taxes and any restructuring or one-time items. Owners ultimately need operating leverage to become durable GAAP net income and diluted EPS, not just higher segment or operating profit.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
its focused freight network keeps converting customer breadth and network density into structural operating leverage, not merely a cyclical rebound in freight.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for XPO
Where the evidence on XPO stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 15, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 2 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
XPO’s large customer base and multi-country location network should let it build lane density and defend price without chasing unprofitable freight.
The investment case depends on XPO continuing to turn freight-network productivity, labor efficiency and routing/service execution into operating leverage.
Because freight transportation is asset- and labor-intensive, XPO must fund network investment without weakening the balance sheet or consuming the cash needed for downturns.
XPO’s operating improvements must consistently reach common shareholders after interest, taxes and any restructuring or one-time items.
Bear case: what would count against it
Large shippers shift freight awards to Old Dominion Freight Line, FedEx Freight, Saia or Estes because XPO’s service levels lag.
Union or non-union wage inflation, driver shortages or safety costs outpace XPO’s productivity gains.
Terminal, fleet or technology investments rise materially while freight demand is soft, pressuring liquidity before returns are visible.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · XPO
No break has crossed XPO’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedRegulation FD disclosure.
XPO filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-03: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedRegulation FD disclosure.
XPO filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-30: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
XPO filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-30: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Large shippers shift freight awards to Old Dominion Freight Line, FedEx Freight, Saia or Estes because XPO’s service levels lag.
- Union or non-union wage inflation, driver shortages or safety costs outpace XPO’s productivity gains.
- Terminal, fleet or technology investments rise materially while freight demand is soft, pressuring liquidity before returns are visible.
- Higher interest expense or refinancing costs absorb operating-income gains before they reach net income.
XPO news
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Financial statements
XPO income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
XPO: quick answers
- When does XPO (XPO) report earnings next?
- XPO's next results are projected for February 4, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 29, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is XPO's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 6.9M XPO shares were sold short, 5.95% of its shares outstanding, up 6.8% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 5.2 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. XPO short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded XPO?
- 15 trades in XPO have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed XPO trade
- Which well-known investors own XPO?
- 3 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported XPO shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Durable Capital Partners, 4.8%; Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%; Markel Group (Tom Gayner), 0.0%. Fund portfolios
XPO in well-known investors’ portfolios
3 of 37 funds reported XPO shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Durable Capital Partners | 4.8% | $498M | −17.4% | Q2 2026 |
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.02% | $5.4M | +3.8% | Q2 2026 |
| Tom GaynerMarkel Group | 0.01% | $1.5M | New | Q3 2026 |