Wingstop
WINGNASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $169.58 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $164.81–$171.71 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 1.0M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Not yet confirmed The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
- $95.82–$302.80 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own WING if its focused, asset-light franchise model keeps producing attractive franchisee returns and royalty growth without the leverage turning the story from compounding into balance-sheet risk.
WING price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Franchisee-level returns remain attractive enough that operators keep funding new Wingstop restaurants, allowing corporate revenue to grow without Wingstop bearing most store-level capital needs.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual revenue increased from $282.5 million in FY2021 to $696.9 million in FY2025. If franchisees keep reinvesting, Wingstop can compound royalties with limited corporate capital; if franchisee returns fade, the unit-growth runway closes before reported revenue rolls over.
Watch: Franchisees begin preferring alternative restaurant concepts such as Domino's, Chick-fil-A, or quick-service chicken brands because Wingstop cash-on-cash returns fall.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual revenue increased from $282.5 million in FY2021 to $696.9 million in FY2025.
Open source ↗Wingstop’s narrow menu and brand positioning continue to support pricing, repeat usage, and operational simplicity, so growth does not require structurally lower corporate profitability.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual operating income rose from $91.9 million in FY2022 to $179.3 million in FY2025. If the brand can grow while holding margin, incremental revenue is valuable; if growth requires discounting or complexity, the premium franchisor economics deteriorate.
Watch: Buffalo Wild Wings, Popeyes, KFC, or local wing competitors use promotions to reset consumer price expectations for wings.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating income rose from $91.9 million in FY2022 to $179.3 million in FY2025.
Open source ↗The asset-light franchisor model converts accounting earnings into cash because franchise growth is not supposed to require heavy corporate reinvestment.HoldingMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating cash flow increased from $76.2 million in FY2022 to $153.1 million in FY2025. Cash conversion is what lets owners benefit from growth after taxes, interest, reinvestment, and capital returns; weak conversion would make reported earnings less valuable.
Watch: Wingstop has to fund more company-operated restaurants, technology, field support, or incentives to keep franchisee growth going.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating cash flow increased from $76.2 million in FY2022 to $153.1 million in FY2025.
Open source ↗Wingstop’s leveraged capital structure is manageable only if the royalty cash stream remains durable through restaurant cycles and commodity volatility.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Cash was $196.6 million at FY2025 year-end. Leverage can magnify per-share value when the royalty stream is resilient, but it reduces the margin of safety if growth or cash conversion slows.
Watch: Credit markets reprice restaurant-franchisor debt or lenders demand tighter terms before refinancing needs arise.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Cash was $196.6 million at FY2025 year-end.
Open source ↗Per-share value creation depends on real operating compounding rather than financial leverage alone; earnings growth must be backed by durable restaurant demand and margin quality.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP diluted EPS increased from $1.77 in FY2022 to $6.21 in FY2025. If EPS growth reflects scalable royalties and operating profit, the compounding case strengthens; if it is driven mainly by leverage, tax, or capital structure effects, the equity deserves a lower quality premium.
Watch: Future EPS growth becomes dependent on recapitalizations, buybacks, or tax/interest effects while operating income growth slows.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP diluted EPS increased from $1.77 in FY2022 to $6.21 in FY2025.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Franchisee-level returns remain attractive enough that operators keep funding new Wingstop restaurants, allowing corporate revenue to grow without Wingstop bearing most store-level capital needs. If franchisees keep reinvesting, Wingstop can compound royalties with limited corporate capital; if franchisee returns fade, the unit-growth runway closes before reported revenue rolls over.
Wingstop’s narrow menu and brand positioning continue to support pricing, repeat usage, and operational simplicity, so growth does not require structurally lower corporate profitability. If the brand can grow while holding margin, incremental revenue is valuable; if growth requires discounting or complexity, the premium franchisor economics deteriorate.
The asset-light franchisor model converts accounting earnings into cash because franchise growth is not supposed to require heavy corporate reinvestment. Cash conversion is what lets owners benefit from growth after taxes, interest, reinvestment, and capital returns; weak conversion would make reported earnings less valuable.
Wingstop’s leveraged capital structure is manageable only if the royalty cash stream remains durable through restaurant cycles and commodity volatility. Leverage can magnify per-share value when the royalty stream is resilient, but it reduces the margin of safety if growth or cash conversion slows.
Per-share value creation depends on real operating compounding rather than financial leverage alone; earnings growth must be backed by durable restaurant demand and margin quality. If EPS growth reflects scalable royalties and operating profit, the compounding case strengthens; if it is driven mainly by leverage, tax, or capital structure effects, the equity deserves a lower quality premium.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
its focused, asset-light franchise model keeps producing attractive franchisee returns and royalty growth without the leverage turning the story from compounding into balance-sheet risk.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Wingstop
Where the evidence on Wingstop stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 25, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 2 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Franchisee-level returns remain attractive enough that operators keep funding new Wingstop restaurants, allowing corporate revenue to grow without Wingstop bearing most store-level capital needs.
Wingstop’s narrow menu and brand positioning continue to support pricing, repeat usage, and operational simplicity, so growth does not require structurally lower corporate profitability.
The asset-light franchisor model converts accounting earnings into cash because franchise growth is not supposed to require heavy corporate reinvestment.
Wingstop’s leveraged capital structure is manageable only if the royalty cash stream remains durable through restaurant cycles and commodity volatility.
Per-share value creation depends on real operating compounding rather than financial leverage alone; earnings growth must be backed by durable restaurant demand and margin quality.
Bear case: what would count against it
Franchisees begin preferring alternative restaurant concepts such as Domino's, Chick-fil-A, or quick-service chicken brands because Wingstop cash-on-cash returns fall.
Buffalo Wild Wings, Popeyes, KFC, or local wing competitors use promotions to reset consumer price expectations for wings.
Wingstop has to fund more company-operated restaurants, technology, field support, or incentives to keep franchisee growth going.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · Wingstop
Loading the break-condition record for Wingstop.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Wingstop filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-25: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Wingstop filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-06: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Wingstop filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-29: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Franchisees begin preferring alternative restaurant concepts such as Domino's, Chick-fil-A, or quick-service chicken brands because Wingstop cash-on-cash returns fall.
- Buffalo Wild Wings, Popeyes, KFC, or local wing competitors use promotions to reset consumer price expectations for wings.
- Wingstop has to fund more company-operated restaurants, technology, field support, or incentives to keep franchisee growth going.
- Credit markets reprice restaurant-franchisor debt or lenders demand tighter terms before refinancing needs arise.
- Future EPS growth becomes dependent on recapitalizations, buybacks, or tax/interest effects while operating income growth slows.
WING news
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Financial statements
WING income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
WING: quick answers
- Have members of Congress traded WING?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 2 trades in WING by 1 filer: 0 purchases and 2 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed WING trade
- Which well-known investors own WING?
- 1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported WING shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios
WING in well-known investors’ portfolios
1 of 37 funds reported WING shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.01% | $2.1M | +43.9% | Q2 2026 |
