Verastem
VSTMNASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $8.73 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $8.68–$9.22 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 2.6M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Not yet confirmed The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
- $3.43–$10.82 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own VSTM if AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK converts accelerated approval into a broader, durable franchise while early-stage assets (notably VS-7375) progress without forcing severe dilution.
VSTM price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO‑PACK can establish a durable U.S. commercial franchise for recurrent LGSOC because it is the first FDA‑approved, NCCN‑recognized targeted combination for KRAS‑mutated LGSOC and is already generating product sales to specialty pharmacies/distributors.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Revenue rose from $10.0M (2024) to $30.914M (2025) after U.S. accelerated approval and commercial launch. If uptake and payer coverage scale, product revenue can materially reduce burn and fund pipeline development; if uptake stalls (coverage or clinical preference issues), the company will remain dependent on external financing and face dilution.
Watch: Major payor restrictions, step edits, or narrow formulary placement in oncology (limiting outpatient infusion/ORAL drug access) that restrict prescriptions before broad adoption.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Revenue rose from $10.0M (2024) to $30.914M (2025) after U.S. accelerated approval and commercial launch.
Open source ↗A positive RAMP 301 Phase 3 readout will causally expand the addressable market (KRAS‑agnostic LGSOC and enable filings outside the U.S.), converting accelerated approval into durable, larger revenue streams.HoldingMateriality: High
RAMP 301 is designed as the confirmatory study for the initial U.S. indication and to potentially expand the indication regardless of KRAS mutation status. Confirmation of efficacy/safety in RAMP 301 is the leading commercial and regulatory catalyst that would justify broader prescribing, international submissions, and materially higher revenue than current levels.
Watch: A negative or inconclusive RAMP 301 primary endpoint or a new safety signal, which would prevent conversion to full approval and limit geographic expansion.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
RAMP 301 is designed as the confirmatory study for the initial U.S. indication and to potentially expand the indication regardless.
Open source ↗VS‑7375 (oral KRAS G12D inhibitor) can create a second commercial pillar only if clinical data demonstrate clear activity and the company sustains funding to complete registrational development.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
First patient dosed in VS‑7375 Phase 1/2. A positive VS‑7375 program would diversify revenue beyond LGSOC into larger indications (PDAC, NSCLC, CRC), transforming valuation; conversely, slow/negative data or inability to fund development keeps the company single‑product and high risk.
Watch: Competing KRAS G12D programs from larger oncology developers obtaining faster positive data or partnering at superior terms, crowding the market.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
First patient dosed in VS‑7375 Phase 1/2.
Open source ↗Given 2025 operating cash flow and current cash balance, the company will need additional capital, increased product revenue, or partnerships within roughly 12 months to avoid material dilution or program pauses.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
MD&A states cash and cash equivalents of $205.0M as of 12/31/2025 and that existing resources are expected to be sufficient to fund planned operations through 12 months from issuance of the financials. If the company cannot secure funding or quickly scale revenue, it will be forced into dilutive financings or to cut R&D/commercial investment, slowing or derailing the path to broader approvals and commercialization.
Watch: Rapid commercial revenue ramp from AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA that materially reduces burn faster than current projections.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
MD&A states cash and cash equivalents of $205.0M as of 12/31/2025 and that existing resources are expected to be sufficient.
Open source ↗Payer coverage and reimbursement dynamics (formulary placement and specialty pharmacy contracting) are the dominant determinants of near‑term revenue growth because sales flow through a small number of specialty pharmacies/distributors and provisions for allowances can materially affect net product revenue.HoldingMateriality: Medium
MD&A notes sales of AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO‑PACK are to a limited number of specialty pharmacies and specialty distributors and that provisions for allowances (rebates, chargebacks, returns) may fluctuate. Even with an FDA approval and NCCN listing, restricted coverage or unfavorable contracting would cap revenue and keep the company dependent on financing; favorable coverage unlocks prescribing and revenue scale.
Watch: Large national PBMs or Medicare/Medicaid imposing restrictive coverage policies or requiring step therapy or prior authorization.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
MD&A notes sales of AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO‑PACK are to a limited number of specialty pharmacies and specialty distributors and that.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO‑PACK can establish a durable U.S. commercial franchise for recurrent LGSOC because it is the first FDA‑approved, NCCN‑recognized targeted combination for KRAS‑mutated LGSOC and is already generating product sales to specialty pharmacies/distributors. If uptake and payer coverage scale, product revenue can materially reduce burn and fund pipeline development; if uptake stalls (coverage or clinical preference issues), the company will remain dependent on external financing and face dilution.
A positive RAMP 301 Phase 3 readout will causally expand the addressable market (KRAS‑agnostic LGSOC and enable filings outside the U.S.), converting accelerated approval into durable, larger revenue streams. Confirmation of efficacy/safety in RAMP 301 is the leading commercial and regulatory catalyst that would justify broader prescribing, international submissions, and materially higher revenue than current levels.
VS‑7375 (oral KRAS G12D inhibitor) can create a second commercial pillar only if clinical data demonstrate clear activity and the company sustains funding to complete registrational development. A positive VS‑7375 program would diversify revenue beyond LGSOC into larger indications (PDAC, NSCLC, CRC), transforming valuation; conversely, slow/negative data or inability to fund development keeps the company single‑product and high risk.
Given 2025 operating cash flow and current cash balance, the company will need additional capital, increased product revenue, or partnerships within roughly 12 months to avoid material dilution or program pauses. If the company cannot secure funding or quickly scale revenue, it will be forced into dilutive financings or to cut R&D/commercial investment, slowing or derailing the path to broader approvals and commercialization.
Payer coverage and reimbursement dynamics (formulary placement and specialty pharmacy contracting) are the dominant determinants of near‑term revenue growth because sales flow through a small number of specialty pharmacies/distributors and provisions for allowances can materially affect net product revenue. Even with an FDA approval and NCCN listing, restricted coverage or unfavorable contracting would cap revenue and keep the company dependent on financing; favorable coverage unlocks prescribing and revenue scale.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO-PACK converts accelerated approval into a broader, durable franchise while early-stage assets (notably VS-7375) progress without forcing severe dilution.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Verastem
Where the evidence on Verastem stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 10, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 2 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA CO‑PACK can establish a durable U.S. commercial franchise for recurrent LGSOC because it is the first FDA‑approved, NCCN‑recognized targeted combination for KRAS‑mutated LGSOC and is already generating product sales to specialty pharmacies/distributors.
A positive RAMP 301 Phase 3 readout will causally expand the addressable market (KRAS‑agnostic LGSOC and enable filings outside the U.S.), converting accelerated approval into durable, larger revenue streams.
VS‑7375 (oral KRAS G12D inhibitor) can create a second commercial pillar only if clinical data demonstrate clear activity and the company sustains funding to complete registrational development.
Given 2025 operating cash flow and current cash balance, the company will need additional capital, increased product revenue, or partnerships within roughly 12 months to avoid material dilution or program pauses.
Payer coverage and reimbursement dynamics (formulary placement and specialty pharmacy contracting) are the dominant determinants of near‑term revenue growth because sales flow through a small number of specialty pharmacies/distributors and provisions for allowances can materially affect net product revenue.
Bear case: what would count against it
Major payor restrictions, step edits, or narrow formulary placement in oncology (limiting outpatient infusion/ORAL drug access) that restrict prescriptions before broad adoption.
A negative or inconclusive RAMP 301 primary endpoint or a new safety signal, which would prevent conversion to full approval and limit geographic expansion.
Competing KRAS G12D programs from larger oncology developers obtaining faster positive data or partnering at superior terms, crowding the market.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Verastem’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Verastem, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Verastem.
- CEO / officer changecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 16,849 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 2% over the next six months, and 38% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedRegulation FD disclosure.
Verastem filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-05: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedOther material event.
Verastem filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-14: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Verastem filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-14: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Major payor restrictions, step edits, or narrow formulary placement in oncology (limiting outpatient infusion/ORAL drug access) that restrict prescriptions before broad adoption.
- A negative or inconclusive RAMP 301 primary endpoint or a new safety signal, which would prevent conversion to full approval and limit geographic expansion.
- Competing KRAS G12D programs from larger oncology developers obtaining faster positive data or partnering at superior terms, crowding the market.
- Rapid commercial revenue ramp from AVMAPKI FAKZYNJA that materially reduces burn faster than current projections.
- Large national PBMs or Medicare/Medicaid imposing restrictive coverage policies or requiring step therapy or prior authorization.
VSTM news
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Financial statements
VSTM income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
VSTM: quick answers
- Have members of Congress traded VSTM?
- 4 trades in VSTM have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed VSTM trade