Vodafone Group Public Limited Company

VODNASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$15.64
+$0.14 (+0.90%)Today 1M +0.51%
After hours$15.640.00%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$15.50
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$15.25–$15.64
Regular-session low and high so far today.
3.8M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Not yet confirmed
The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
$11.71–$17.71
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own VOD if Vodafone converts large, recurring mobile and fixed customer bases and wide network scale into steady cash flow; the stock trades on whether management can convert that cash into durable profit and lower leverage after.

VOD price history

Latest price$15.64Today+$0.14 (+0.90%)
VOD +1.69%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

4 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Vodafone's subscription scale and contract-driven services convert stable revenue into high, durable operating cash flow that funds dividends, debt paydown or strategic action.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    operating_cash_flow = 15373000000.0 EUR (period_end 2025-03-31, FY2025). If OCF holds, shareholders can expect meaningful cash returns and deleveraging even if GAAP operating income is volatile; if OCF falls, capital returns and investment will be constrained.

    Watch: Sustained regulatory price cuts or mandated wholesale access in major markets (UK/EU) that reduce ARPU and cash margins.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    operating_cash_flow = 15373000000.0 EUR (period_end 2025-03-31, FY2025).

    Open source ↗
  • The FY2025 negative operating income is primarily driven by non‑recurring operating charges (impairments/restructuring) rather than structural margin decay, so operating profit can revert if those items do not recur.HoldingMateriality: High

    operating_income = -411000000.0 EUR (period_end 2025-03-31, FY2025) — sharp swing from prior year. If true, GAAP operating profitability should recover and justify the valuation; if false, recurring charges imply deeper margin problems and long-term earnings damage.

    Watch: A pattern of recurring impairments or restructuring charges in subsequent quarters (not singular) that suggest asset bases or margins are deteriorating.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    operating_income = -411000000.0 EUR (period_end 2025-03-31, FY2025) — sharp swing from prior year.

    Open source ↗
  • Vodafone's gross profit is resilient because network scale and recurring service economics limit COGS volatility, providing a base for margin recovery at the operating line if opex is controlled.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    gross_profit = 12519000000.0 EUR (FY2025). A stable gross-profit baseline makes it feasible to restore operating margins through cost discipline and efficiency programs; if gross profit collapses, recovery becomes far harder.

    Watch: Rising network operating costs from expensive spectrum/rollout or energy costs that push cost of goods sold higher.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    gross_profit = 12519000000.0 EUR (FY2025).

    Open source ↗
  • High operating cash flow together with a larger cash balance gives Vodafone the flexibility to reduce net debt, pursue selective M&A or sustain shareholder returns without needing dilutive financing — provided capex and spectrum spending remain predictable.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    cash = 11001000000.0 EUR (instant 2025-03-31, FY2025) — cash increased materially year-over-year. If cash balances and OCF remain strong, Vodafone can materially de‑risk the balance sheet or resume shareholder-friendly capital allocation; if cash is consumed by capex/spectrum or surprises, flexibility vanishes.

    Watch: Large one-time cash outflows (spectrum auctions, big acquisitions) or commitments that consume the cash balance.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    cash = 11001000000.0 EUR (instant 2025-03-31, FY2025) — cash increased materially year-over-year.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

Vodafone's subscription scale and contract-driven services convert stable revenue into high, durable operating cash flow that funds dividends, debt paydown or strategic action. If OCF holds, shareholders can expect meaningful cash returns and deleveraging even if GAAP operating income is volatile; if OCF falls, capital returns and investment will be constrained.

The FY2025 negative operating income is primarily driven by non‑recurring operating charges (impairments/restructuring) rather than structural margin decay, so operating profit can revert if those items do not recur. If true, GAAP operating profitability should recover and justify the valuation; if false, recurring charges imply deeper margin problems and long-term earnings damage.

Vodafone's gross profit is resilient because network scale and recurring service economics limit COGS volatility, providing a base for margin recovery at the operating line if opex is controlled. A stable gross-profit baseline makes it feasible to restore operating margins through cost discipline and efficiency programs; if gross profit collapses, recovery becomes far harder.

High operating cash flow together with a larger cash balance gives Vodafone the flexibility to reduce net debt, pursue selective M&A or sustain shareholder returns without needing dilutive financing — provided capex and spectrum spending remain predictable. If cash balances and OCF remain strong, Vodafone can materially de‑risk the balance sheet or resume shareholder-friendly capital allocation; if cash is consumed by capex/spectrum or surprises, flexibility vanishes.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

Vodafone converts large, recurring mobile and fixed customer bases and wide network scale into steady cash flow; the stock trades on whether management can convert that cash into durable profit and lower leverage after.

Evidence assessed Oct 15, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Vodafone Group Public Ltd Co

Where the evidence on Vodafone Group Public Ltd Co stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 15, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 1 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Vodafone's subscription scale and contract-driven services convert stable revenue into high, durable operating cash flow that funds dividends, debt paydown or strategic action.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The FY2025 negative operating income is primarily driven by non‑recurring operating charges (impairments/restructuring) rather than structural margin decay, so operating profit can revert if those items do not recur.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Vodafone's gross profit is resilient because network scale and recurring service economics limit COGS volatility, providing a base for margin recovery at the operating line if opex is controlled.

    sec.gov ↗

  • High operating cash flow together with a larger cash balance gives Vodafone the flexibility to reduce net debt, pursue selective M&A or sustain shareholder returns without needing dilutive financing — provided capex and spectrum spending remain predictable.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Sustained regulatory price cuts or mandated wholesale access in major markets (UK/EU) that reduce ARPU and cash margins.

    sec.gov ↗

  • A pattern of recurring impairments or restructuring charges in subsequent quarters (not singular) that suggest asset bases or margins are deteriorating.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Rising network operating costs from expensive spectrum/rollout or energy costs that push cost of goods sold higher.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

What has broken in Vodafone Group Public Ltd Co’s thesis

Each break OptimistFi flagged on Vodafone Group Public Ltd Co, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Vodafone Group Public Ltd Co.

peers+14%-15%-1%12 mo agonow+6 mo
Daily price, then where similar breaks led across the market: the typical -1% path vs comparable companies over six months, inside the middle-half range (+14% to -15%). A base rate, not a forecast.
  • Analyst downgradecondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 12,641 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

Several kinds of break have stacked on Vodafone Group Public Ltd Co at once. A cluster is a stronger read than any one signal alone.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against comparable companies after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    VODAFONETHREE INVESTOR BRIEFING.

    Vodafone Group Public Ltd Co filed an SEC report on 2026-10-08: VODAFONETHREE INVESTOR BRIEFING. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    HOLDING(S) IN COMPANY.

    Vodafone Group Public Ltd Co filed an SEC report on 2026-10-07: HOLDING(S) IN COMPANY. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    HOLDING(S) IN COMPANY.

    Vodafone Group Public Ltd Co filed an SEC report on 2026-10-06: HOLDING(S) IN COMPANY. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Sustained regulatory price cuts or mandated wholesale access in major markets (UK/EU) that reduce ARPU and cash margins.
  • A pattern of recurring impairments or restructuring charges in subsequent quarters (not singular) that suggest asset bases or margins are deteriorating.
  • Rising network operating costs from expensive spectrum/rollout or energy costs that push cost of goods sold higher.
  • Large one-time cash outflows (spectrum auctions, big acquisitions) or commitments that consume the cash balance.

VOD news

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Financial statements

VOD income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

VOD: quick answers

What is VOD's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 9.7M VOD shares were sold short, down 3.6% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.0 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. VOD short interest history
Have members of Congress traded VOD?
37 trades in VOD have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed VOD trade
Which well-known investors own VOD?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported VOD shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.1%. Fund portfolios

VOD in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported VOD shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Ray DalioBridgewater Associates0.07%$17.2M−37.9%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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