Vale S.A.
VALENYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $11.58 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $11.52–$11.64 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 14.9M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Not yet confirmed The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
- $10.96–$17.94 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own VALE if Own VALE only as a cyclical Metal Mining recovery: revenue has stabilized, cash has improved, and the upside depends on margins and earnings normalizing rather than 2025 becoming the new run-rate.
VALE price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Global metal customers keep taking Vale’s output at commercially acceptable prices, so the 2024-2025 revenue stabilization proves to be a base for recovery rather than a pause before another leg down.HoldingMateriality: High
Revenue moves from flat/stable to year-over-year growth in the next annual or interim filings. This is a load-bearing condition for VALE S.A.'s investment case.
Watch: A sustained steel or metals demand downturn, especially from China-linked customers, causes buyers to defer cargoes or renegotiate lower-price supply away from Vale.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Revenue moves from flat/stable to year-over-year growth in the next annual or interim filings.
Open source ↗Vale’s mining cost structure and operating discipline improve enough that incremental sales convert back into gross profit instead of being absorbed by freight, energy, labor, or remediation costs.HoldingMateriality: High
Gross profit grows faster than revenue, showing a rising gross margin rather than merely higher sales dollars. This is a load-bearing condition for VALE S.A.'s investment case.
Watch: Persistent cost inflation, mine disruption, logistics bottlenecks, or Brazil-related regulatory/remediation requirements become embedded in the cost base before pricing improves.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Gross profit grows faster than revenue, showing a rising gross margin rather than merely higher sales dollars.
Open source ↗The sharp 2025 operating-income compression is not permanent; management can restore operating leverage as commodity pricing, mix, and site-level costs normalize.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Operating income rebounds materially faster than revenue, indicating that fixed-cost absorption and operating leverage are returning. This is a load-bearing condition for VALE S.A.'s investment case.
Watch: Customers permanently shift toward alternative suppliers or lower-grade/lower-cost substitutes, leaving Vale unable to regain pricing or utilization even if industry demand stabilizes.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating income rebounds materially faster than revenue, indicating that fixed-cost absorption and operating leverage are returning.
Open source ↗The enlarged cash position gives Vale enough downcycle flexibility to fund operations and obligations without forcing distressed asset sales or balance-sheet-damaging financing.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Cash remains resilient through the next reporting periods while operations recover, rather than being consumed to cover recurring losses or settlements. This is a load-bearing condition for VALE S.A.'s investment case.
Watch: A large environmental, tax, legal, acquisition, or refinancing outflow absorbs the cash cushion before earnings recover.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Cash remains resilient through the next reporting periods while operations recover, rather than being consumed to cover recurring losses or.
Open source ↗The balance sheet can tolerate the current mining downcycle because liabilities do not keep compounding faster than the asset base and equity cushion.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Liabilities stabilize or decline relative to assets and equity in future filings. This is a load-bearing condition for VALE S.A.'s investment case.
Watch: Vale funds the downturn, settlements, or growth projects primarily with new debt, causing leverage to rise before operating income has recovered.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Liabilities stabilize or decline relative to assets and equity in future filings.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Global metal customers keep taking Vale’s output at commercially acceptable prices, so the 2024-2025 revenue stabilization proves to be a base for recovery rather than a pause before another leg down. This is a load-bearing condition for VALE S.A.'s investment case.
Vale’s mining cost structure and operating discipline improve enough that incremental sales convert back into gross profit instead of being absorbed by freight, energy, labor, or remediation costs. This is a load-bearing condition for VALE S.A.'s investment case.
The sharp 2025 operating-income compression is not permanent; management can restore operating leverage as commodity pricing, mix, and site-level costs normalize. This is a load-bearing condition for VALE S.A.'s investment case.
The enlarged cash position gives Vale enough downcycle flexibility to fund operations and obligations without forcing distressed asset sales or balance-sheet-damaging financing. This is a load-bearing condition for VALE S.A.'s investment case.
The balance sheet can tolerate the current mining downcycle because liabilities do not keep compounding faster than the asset base and equity cushion. This is a load-bearing condition for VALE S.A.'s investment case.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Own VALE only as a cyclical Metal Mining recovery: revenue has stabilized, cash has improved, and the upside depends on margins and earnings normalizing rather than 2025 becoming the new run-rate.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for VALE S.A.
Where the evidence on VALE S.A. stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 12, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 5 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Global metal customers keep taking Vale’s output at commercially acceptable prices, so the 2024-2025 revenue stabilization proves to be a base for recovery rather than a pause before another leg down.
Vale’s mining cost structure and operating discipline improve enough that incremental sales convert back into gross profit instead of being absorbed by freight, energy, labor, or remediation costs.
The sharp 2025 operating-income compression is not permanent; management can restore operating leverage as commodity pricing, mix, and site-level costs normalize.
The enlarged cash position gives Vale enough downcycle flexibility to fund operations and obligations without forcing distressed asset sales or balance-sheet-damaging financing.
The balance sheet can tolerate the current mining downcycle because liabilities do not keep compounding faster than the asset base and equity cushion.
Bear case: what would count against it
A sustained steel or metals demand downturn, especially from China-linked customers, causes buyers to defer cargoes or renegotiate lower-price supply away from Vale.
Persistent cost inflation, mine disruption, logistics bottlenecks, or Brazil-related regulatory/remediation requirements become embedded in the cost base before pricing improves.
Customers permanently shift toward alternative suppliers or lower-grade/lower-cost substitutes, leaving Vale unable to regain pricing or utilization even if industry demand stabilizes.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · VALE S.A.
No break has crossed VALE S.A.’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedForeign issuer material report (6-K).
VALE S.A. filed an SEC report on 2026-10-02: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedForeign issuer material report (6-K).
VALE S.A. filed an SEC report on 2026-09-30: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedForeign issuer material report (6-K).
VALE S.A. filed an SEC report on 2026-09-24: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- A sustained steel or metals demand downturn, especially from China-linked customers, causes buyers to defer cargoes or renegotiate lower-price supply away from Vale.
- Persistent cost inflation, mine disruption, logistics bottlenecks, or Brazil-related regulatory/remediation requirements become embedded in the cost base before pricing improves.
- Customers permanently shift toward alternative suppliers or lower-grade/lower-cost substitutes, leaving Vale unable to regain pricing or utilization even if industry demand stabilizes.
- A large environmental, tax, legal, acquisition, or refinancing outflow absorbs the cash cushion before earnings recover.
- Vale funds the downturn, settlements, or growth projects primarily with new debt, causing leverage to rise before operating income has recovered.
VALE news
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Financial statements
VALE income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
VALE: quick answers
- What is VALE's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 59.2M VALE shares were sold short, up 3.9% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 1.4 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. VALE short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded VALE?
- 10 trades in VALE have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed VALE trade
- Which well-known investors own VALE?
- 1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported VALE shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.2%. Fund portfolios
VALE in well-known investors’ portfolios
1 of 37 funds reported VALE shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.16% | $39.5M | −34.1% | Q2 2026 |