United States Oil Fund, LP
USONYSEArcaUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $141.47 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $141.54–$146.45 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 5.6M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 12, 4:00 PM ET.
- Not yet confirmed The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
- $65.99–$171.82 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own USO if WTI futures returns after roll costs and fees beat what the market already implies.
USO price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Investor demand for simple exchange-traded crude exposure persists because USO removes the operational burden of opening a futures account, posting margin, and rolling contracts directly.HoldingMateriality: High
GAAP total assets were $889.6 million at fiscal year-end 2025, showing the vehicle still had meaningful scale. If this holds, USO can remain a liquid tactical vehicle; if it breaks, assets shrink and the fund becomes less useful even if oil volatility stays high.
Watch: Lower-cost commodity ETFs or ETNs take share from USO by offering similar crude exposure with better roll methodology or fees.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP total assets were $889.6 million at fiscal year-end 2025, showing the vehicle still had meaningful scale.
Open source ↗USO’s owner returns are controlled by crude-oil macro fundamentals, so the units need favorable supply discipline, demand resilience, or disruption risk rather than any improvement in USO’s internal operations.WeakeningMateriality: High
GAAP annual net income was $221.1 million in fiscal 2024, consistent with commodity-price gains flowing through the fund. If the oil macro setup is right, USO can produce gains; if it is wrong, the fund can lose money despite functioning exactly as designed.
Watch: OPEC+ restores supply faster than demand can absorb it, pressuring crude futures.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual net income was $221.1 million in fiscal 2024, consistent with commodity-price gains flowing through the fund.
Open source ↗USO must preserve useful crude-oil beta after contract rolls; sustained contango or forced changes in futures exposure would cause holders to lag the oil move they expected to capture.HoldingMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual revenue was $231.9 million in fiscal 2024, but negative $56.2 million in fiscal 2025 and negative $34.9 million in fiscal 2023, demonstrating sensitivity to futures gains and losses rather than stable business sales. This determines whether USO is an effective oil proxy or a structurally leaky instrument.
Watch: The WTI curve shifts into persistent contango because inventories build or storage economics deteriorate, creating recurring roll drag.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual revenue was $231.9 million in fiscal 2024, but negative $56.2 million in fiscal 2025 and negative $34.9 million.
Open source ↗The fund’s structure needs ample liquid collateral and low leverage so margin calls, redemptions, and futures volatility do not force value-destructive actions.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP cash and cash equivalents were $651.9 million at fiscal year-end 2025. If liquidity holds, USO can stay a clean exposure vehicle; if liquidity is impaired, holders face tracking error, trading disruption, or emergency portfolio changes.
Watch: A sudden oil-futures volatility shock sharply raises margin requirements and drains available collateral.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP cash and cash equivalents were $651.9 million at fiscal year-end 2025.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Investor demand for simple exchange-traded crude exposure persists because USO removes the operational burden of opening a futures account, posting margin, and rolling contracts directly. If this holds, USO can remain a liquid tactical vehicle; if it breaks, assets shrink and the fund becomes less useful even if oil volatility stays high.
USO’s owner returns are controlled by crude-oil macro fundamentals, so the units need favorable supply discipline, demand resilience, or disruption risk rather than any improvement in USO’s internal operations. If the oil macro setup is right, USO can produce gains; if it is wrong, the fund can lose money despite functioning exactly as designed.
USO must preserve useful crude-oil beta after contract rolls; sustained contango or forced changes in futures exposure would cause holders to lag the oil move they expected to capture. This determines whether USO is an effective oil proxy or a structurally leaky instrument.
The fund’s structure needs ample liquid collateral and low leverage so margin calls, redemptions, and futures volatility do not force value-destructive actions. If liquidity holds, USO can stay a clean exposure vehicle; if liquidity is impaired, holders face tracking error, trading disruption, or emergency portfolio changes.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
WTI futures returns after roll costs and fees beat what the market already implies.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for United States Oil Fund, LP
Where the evidence on United States Oil Fund, LP disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Nov 12, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 1 strengthening, 2 holding and 1 weakening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Investor demand for simple exchange-traded crude exposure persists because USO removes the operational burden of opening a futures account, posting margin, and rolling contracts directly.
USO must preserve useful crude-oil beta after contract rolls; sustained contango or forced changes in futures exposure would cause holders to lag the oil move they expected to capture.
The fund’s structure needs ample liquid collateral and low leverage so margin calls, redemptions, and futures volatility do not force value-destructive actions.
Bear case: what the evidence questions
USO’s owner returns are controlled by crude-oil macro fundamentals, so the units need favorable supply discipline, demand resilience, or disruption risk rather than any improvement in USO’s internal operations.
Company research
Research on United States Oil Fund, LP
- Reporting · Iranian Tanker Strikes Leave USO's Supply-Loss Question Open
The strikes raise escalation risk, but the official account gives no new oil-supply loss to quantify. We explain what that means for USO investors.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · United States Oil Fund, LP
OptimistFi is watching United States Oil Fund, LP. No break-condition checks are on record yet — they accumulate as new filings are checked.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedRegulation FD disclosure.
United States Oil Fund, LP filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-30: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedRegulation FD disclosure.
United States Oil Fund, LP filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-29: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedEntered a material definitive agreement.
United States Oil Fund, LP filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-25: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Lower-cost commodity ETFs or ETNs take share from USO by offering similar crude exposure with better roll methodology or fees.
- OPEC+ restores supply faster than demand can absorb it, pressuring crude futures.
- The WTI curve shifts into persistent contango because inventories build or storage economics deteriorate, creating recurring roll drag.
- A sudden oil-futures volatility shock sharply raises margin requirements and drains available collateral.
USO news
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Financial statements
USO income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
USO: quick answers
- What is USO's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 13.9M USO shares were sold short, up 12.3% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 2.6 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. USO short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded USO?
- 9 trades in USO have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed USO trade