Texas Roadhouse

TXRHNASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$188.36
+$0.20 (+0.11%)Today 1M +16.63%
After hours$186.60−0.93%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$188.16
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$183.89–$188.91
Regular-session low and high so far today.
704.7K
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Feb 18 projected
Projected for 2027-02-18 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$153.83–$216.30
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own TXRH if its high-energy, value-steakhouse experience keeps drawing traffic while management offsets beef and labor inflation without damaging guest value.

TXRH price history

Latest price$188.36Today+$0.20 (+0.11%)
TXRH +18.73%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • The value-oriented steakhouse occasion remains differentiated enough to win guest visits from broader casual dining without relying on heavy discounting.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual revenue increased from $3.46 billion in FY2021 to $5.88 billion in FY2025. If this holds, new restaurants and existing dining rooms can keep filling; if it breaks, sales growth becomes promotion-dependent and lower quality.

    Watch: Darden's LongHorn Steakhouse materially outperforms in guest traffic and forces Texas Roadhouse to respond with price or menu concessions.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual revenue increased from $3.46 billion in FY2021 to $5.88 billion in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • Menu pricing and operating discipline can eventually offset beef, labor, and occupancy inflation without damaging the guest value proposition.HoldingMateriality: High

    GAAP annual operating income rose from $297.2 million in FY2021 to $516.5 million in FY2024. This is the difference between valuable growth and revenue bought at lower returns.

    Watch: Beef cost inflation stays elevated and cannot be passed through because the brand’s value perception weakens.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating income rose from $297.2 million in FY2021 to $516.5 million in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
  • Texas Roadhouse’s labor-intensive service model can scale across a large employee base without losing execution quality or restaurant-level consistency.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    The company employed approximately 101,000 people as of December 30, 2025. The brand’s differentiation depends on hospitality and execution; if culture thins out, unit growth can dilute returns rather than compound them.

    Watch: High turnover among managers, managing partners, or hourly staff weakens service consistency.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    The company employed approximately 101,000 people as of December 30, 2025.

    Open source ↗
  • The concept generates enough internal cash to fund restaurant development and shareholder returns without materially weakening the balance sheet.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual operating cash flow was $730.1 million in FY2025. Self-funded growth protects owners from debt-driven expansion risk and gives management flexibility through restaurant cycles.

    Watch: New restaurant build costs rise enough that openings consume cash faster than mature restaurants generate it.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating cash flow was $730.1 million in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • Per-share value creation depends on unit growth and margin recovery translating into GAAP diluted EPS growth, not merely larger system sales.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    GAAP diluted EPS rose from $3.50 in FY2021 to $6.47 in FY2024. Owners only benefit if expansion converts into per-share earnings power; otherwise the company can be bigger without being more valuable per share.

    Watch: Restaurant-level margin pressure persists, preventing revenue growth from reaching the bottom line.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP diluted EPS rose from $3.50 in FY2021 to $6.47 in FY2024.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

Loading the original research archive…

Original research

The value-oriented steakhouse occasion remains differentiated enough to win guest visits from broader casual dining without relying on heavy discounting. If this holds, new restaurants and existing dining rooms can keep filling; if it breaks, sales growth becomes promotion-dependent and lower quality.

Menu pricing and operating discipline can eventually offset beef, labor, and occupancy inflation without damaging the guest value proposition. This is the difference between valuable growth and revenue bought at lower returns.

Texas Roadhouse’s labor-intensive service model can scale across a large employee base without losing execution quality or restaurant-level consistency. The brand’s differentiation depends on hospitality and execution; if culture thins out, unit growth can dilute returns rather than compound them.

The concept generates enough internal cash to fund restaurant development and shareholder returns without materially weakening the balance sheet. Self-funded growth protects owners from debt-driven expansion risk and gives management flexibility through restaurant cycles.

Per-share value creation depends on unit growth and margin recovery translating into GAAP diluted EPS growth, not merely larger system sales. Owners only benefit if expansion converts into per-share earnings power; otherwise the company can be bigger without being more valuable per share.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

its high-energy, value-steakhouse experience keeps drawing traffic while management offsets beef and labor inflation without damaging guest value.

Evidence assessed Oct 15, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Texas Roadhouse

Where the evidence on Texas Roadhouse stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 15, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 3 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • The value-oriented steakhouse occasion remains differentiated enough to win guest visits from broader casual dining without relying on heavy discounting.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Menu pricing and operating discipline can eventually offset beef, labor, and occupancy inflation without damaging the guest value proposition.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Texas Roadhouse’s labor-intensive service model can scale across a large employee base without losing execution quality or restaurant-level consistency.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The concept generates enough internal cash to fund restaurant development and shareholder returns without materially weakening the balance sheet.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Per-share value creation depends on unit growth and margin recovery translating into GAAP diluted EPS growth, not merely larger system sales.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Darden's LongHorn Steakhouse materially outperforms in guest traffic and forces Texas Roadhouse to respond with price or menu concessions.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Beef cost inflation stays elevated and cannot be passed through because the brand’s value perception weakens.

    sec.gov ↗

  • High turnover among managers, managing partners, or hourly staff weakens service consistency.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

What has broken in Texas Roadhouse’s thesis

Each break OptimistFi flagged on Texas Roadhouse, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Texas Roadhouse.

peers+14%-15%-1%12 mo agonow+6 mo
Daily price, then where similar breaks led across the market: the typical -1% path vs comparable companies over six months, inside the middle-half range (+14% to -15%). A base rate, not a forecast.
  • Analyst downgradecondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 12,641 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against comparable companies after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Texas Roadhouse filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-06: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Texas Roadhouse filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-05-07: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Darden's LongHorn Steakhouse materially outperforms in guest traffic and forces Texas Roadhouse to respond with price or menu concessions.
  • Beef cost inflation stays elevated and cannot be passed through because the brand’s value perception weakens.
  • High turnover among managers, managing partners, or hourly staff weakens service consistency.
  • New restaurant build costs rise enough that openings consume cash faster than mature restaurants generate it.
  • Restaurant-level margin pressure persists, preventing revenue growth from reaching the bottom line.

TXRH news

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Financial statements

TXRH income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

TXRH: quick answers

When does Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) report earnings next?
Texas Roadhouse's next results are projected for February 18, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 5, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is TXRH's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 3.4M TXRH shares were sold short, 5.18% of its shares outstanding, up 17.7% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 2.7 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. TXRH short interest history
Have members of Congress traded TXRH?
Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 2 trades in TXRH by 1 filer: 1 purchase and 1 sale. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed TXRH trade
Which well-known investors own TXRH?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported TXRH shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios

TXRH in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported TXRH shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Ray DalioBridgewater Associates0.01%$1.8M+142.3%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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