TXNM Energy
TXNMNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $58.10 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $58.15–$58.85 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 1.2M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 26 projected Projected for 2027-02-26 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $55.64–$59.53 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own TXNM if TXNM is a two-utility regulated holding company that can turn authorized rate‑base investment and cost‑recovery riders into predictable cash flow and dividends — but the stock’s near‑term outcome is dominated by a pending $61.25/share.
TXNM price history
Loading recent earnings…
Investment thesis
What must happen next
Successful rate cases and riders convert TXNM’s utility infrastructure investment into recoverable revenue and operating cash flow, sustaining earnings growth without dilutive financing.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Revenue rose from $1,939,198,000 (FY2023) to $1,971,199,000 (FY2024) to $2,165,606,000 (FY2025), showing top‑line growth while the company emphasized rate recovery in filings (Item 1 and MD&A). If true, investors get predictable cash generation and a dividend, and the company can fund capex while maintaining credit; if false, capex becomes earnings‑dilutive and may force equity or costly debt.
Watch: A regulator (e.g., NMPRC) materially disallows capital/expense recovery in a major rate case or mandates a significantly lower allowed ROE, which would break the conversion of capex into recoverable revenue.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Revenue rose from $1,939,198,000 (FY2023) to $1,971,199,000 (FY2024) to $2,165,606,000 (FY2025), showing top‑line growth while the company emphasized rate recovery.
Open source ↗Stable operating cash flow from regulated operations gives TXNM capacity to fund planned infrastructure investments and preserve investment‑grade credit without dilutive equity issuance.HoldingMateriality: High
Operating cash flow was $551,171,000 (FY2023), $508,160,000 (FY2024) and $584,489,000 (FY2025), demonstrating multi‑hundred‑million dollar cash generation from operations. If OCF remains strong, the company can invest for reliability and growth while keeping leverage and interest costs manageable; if OCF weakens, leverage will rise and borrowing costs or dilution could follow.
Watch: A sustained step‑up in required capex (e.g., major plant rebuilds or severe storm damage) that exceeds OCF for several years and forces incremental debt or equity.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating cash flow was $551,171,000 (FY2023), $508,160,000 (FY2024) and $584,489,000 (FY2025), demonstrating multi‑hundred‑million dollar cash generation from operations.
Open source ↗Reported net income and diluted EPS swings are driven more by timing, discrete items and regulatory/tax/merger effects than by structural loss of customers or demand for utility service.HoldingMateriality: Medium
EPS moved from $1.02 (FY2023) to $2.67 (FY2024) and to $1.48 (FY2025) while revenue increased across the same period, suggesting non‑operational or timing drivers behind EPS volatility. If true, temporary earnings swings don’t imply a lasting deterioration of the regulated business; if false (if volatility reflects lost load/customer counts), the regulated franchise is weakening and long‑term value is impaired.
Watch: Evidence of sustained declines in customer count or large commercial/industrial customer departures (load loss) that would reduce billed volumes.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
EPS moved from $1.02 (FY2023) to $2.67 (FY2024) and to $1.48 (FY2025) while revenue increased across the same period, suggesting.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
Loading the original research archive…
Original research
Successful rate cases and riders convert TXNM’s utility infrastructure investment into recoverable revenue and operating cash flow, sustaining earnings growth without dilutive financing. If true, investors get predictable cash generation and a dividend, and the company can fund capex while maintaining credit; if false, capex becomes earnings‑dilutive and may force equity or costly debt.
Stable operating cash flow from regulated operations gives TXNM capacity to fund planned infrastructure investments and preserve investment‑grade credit without dilutive equity issuance. If OCF remains strong, the company can invest for reliability and growth while keeping leverage and interest costs manageable; if OCF weakens, leverage will rise and borrowing costs or dilution could follow.
Reported net income and diluted EPS swings are driven more by timing, discrete items and regulatory/tax/merger effects than by structural loss of customers or demand for utility service. If true, temporary earnings swings don’t imply a lasting deterioration of the regulated business; if false (if volatility reflects lost load/customer counts), the regulated franchise is weakening and long‑term value is impaired.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
TXNM is a two-utility regulated holding company that can turn authorized rate‑base investment and cost‑recovery riders into predictable cash flow and dividends — but the stock’s near‑term outcome is dominated by a pending $61.25/share.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for TXNM Energy
Where the evidence on TXNM Energy stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 7, 2026). Of its 3 thesis points, 1 strengthening and 2 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Successful rate cases and riders convert TXNM’s utility infrastructure investment into recoverable revenue and operating cash flow, sustaining earnings growth without dilutive financing.
Stable operating cash flow from regulated operations gives TXNM capacity to fund planned infrastructure investments and preserve investment‑grade credit without dilutive equity issuance.
Reported net income and diluted EPS swings are driven more by timing, discrete items and regulatory/tax/merger effects than by structural loss of customers or demand for utility service.
Bear case: what would count against it
A regulator (e.g., NMPRC) materially disallows capital/expense recovery in a major rate case or mandates a significantly lower allowed ROE, which would break the conversion of capex into recoverable revenue.
A sustained step‑up in required capex (e.g., major plant rebuilds or severe storm damage) that exceeds OCF for several years and forces incremental debt or equity.
Evidence of sustained declines in customer count or large commercial/industrial customer departures (load loss) that would reduce billed volumes.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · TXNM Energy
No break has crossed TXNM Energy’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
TXNM Energy filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-30: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedRegulation FD disclosure.
TXNM Energy filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-28: Regulation FD disclosure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedOther material event.
TXNM Energy filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-30: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- A regulator (e.g., NMPRC) materially disallows capital/expense recovery in a major rate case or mandates a significantly lower allowed ROE, which would break the conversion of capex into recoverable revenue.
- A sustained step‑up in required capex (e.g., major plant rebuilds or severe storm damage) that exceeds OCF for several years and forces incremental debt or equity.
- Evidence of sustained declines in customer count or large commercial/industrial customer departures (load loss) that would reduce billed volumes.
TXNM news
Loading headlines…
Financial statements
TXNM income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
TXNM: quick answers
- When does TXNM Energy (TXNM) report earnings next?
- TXNM Energy's next results are projected for February 26, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 30, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is TXNM's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 6.4M TXNM shares were sold short, up 7.7% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 6.3 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. TXNM short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded TXNM?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 1 trade in TXNM by 1 filer: 1 purchase and 0 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed TXNM trade
- Which well-known investors own TXNM?
- 1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported TXNM shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios
TXNM in well-known investors’ portfolios
1 of 37 funds reported TXNM shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.02% | $4.4M | +4.3% | Q2 2026 |