Trex Company
TREXNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $54.45 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $53.62–$55.12 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 1.9M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 23 projected Projected for 2027-02-23 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $29.77–$60.21 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own TREX if Trex monetizes the long-term conversion of homeowners from wood to premium, low‑maintenance composite decking by leveraging a dominant brand, wide retail distribution, and proprietary recycled-material manufacturing to generate durable margins and cash flow.
TREX price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Ongoing wood→composite conversion, fueled by Trex's brand and retail footprint, will keep top-line sales growing despite cyclical remodeling demand.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Revenue rose from $1,094,837,000 in FY2023 to $1,151,449,000 in FY2024 and $1,174,267,000 in FY2025 (fundamentals). If conversion continues, revenue growth and scale will feed margins and cash flow; if conversion stalls, growth and valuation will decelerate.
Watch: A national low‑cost composite entrant or large volume of cheaper imports that win retail shelf space and undercut Trex pricing.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Revenue rose from $1,094,837,000 in FY2023 to $1,151,449,000 in FY2024 and $1,174,267,000 in FY2025 (fundamentals).
Open source ↗Trex’s premium product mix, manufacturing scale and material‑stream improvements can sustain elevated operating margins through cost cycles.HoldingMateriality: High
Operating income grew from $246,735,000 (FY2022) to $321,903,000 (FY2024) before easing to $257,961,000 (FY2025), showing historical operating leverage. Sustained margins are the primary driver of earnings and cash generation; losing them would sharply reduce intrinsic value even if revenue grows.
Watch: Sustained raw material cost increases (resin/plastic film) or logistics cost inflation that Trex cannot fully pass to consumers.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating income grew from $246,735,000 (FY2022) to $321,903,000 (FY2024) before easing to $257,961,000 (FY2025), showing historical operating leverage.
Open source ↗Trex’s business converts a high share of profits into operating cash flow, enabling shareholder returns (buybacks) and selective acquisitions that compound per‑share value.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Operating cash flow has been substantial: $389,420,000 (FY2023), $143,929,000 (FY2024), and $358,113,000 (FY2025), demonstrating strong but volatile cash generation. If cash conversion stays strong, the company can return capital and fund durable growth without dilutive financing; if cash weakens, capital allocation flexibility falls and valuation suffers.
Watch: Large working capital swings (inventory build or wholesale receivable pressure) that materially reduce free cash flow.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating cash flow has been substantial: $389,420,000 (FY2023), $143,929,000 (FY2024), and $358,113,000 (FY2025), demonstrating strong but volatile cash generation.
Open source ↗Trex’s brand recognition, exclusive retail presence, and scale as a recycler of polyethylene film create a differentiated moat that limits share loss to price competition.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Gross profit was $403,989,000 (FY2022), $450,795,000 (FY2023), $501,898,000 (FY2024), and $459,964,000 (FY2025), indicating meaningful gross dollars and margin potential. A defensible moat allows Trex to command premium pricing and protect margins; if the moat fails, pricing power and margins will deteriorate.
Watch: A competitor achieving large, low‑cost scale (domestic or imported) that undercuts Trex pricing and gains shelf space.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Gross profit was $403,989,000 (FY2022), $450,795,000 (FY2023), $501,898,000 (FY2024), and $459,964,000 (FY2025), indicating meaningful gross dollars and margin potential.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Ongoing wood→composite conversion, fueled by Trex's brand and retail footprint, will keep top-line sales growing despite cyclical remodeling demand. If conversion continues, revenue growth and scale will feed margins and cash flow; if conversion stalls, growth and valuation will decelerate.
Trex’s premium product mix, manufacturing scale and material‑stream improvements can sustain elevated operating margins through cost cycles. Sustained margins are the primary driver of earnings and cash generation; losing them would sharply reduce intrinsic value even if revenue grows.
Trex’s business converts a high share of profits into operating cash flow, enabling shareholder returns (buybacks) and selective acquisitions that compound per‑share value. If cash conversion stays strong, the company can return capital and fund durable growth without dilutive financing; if cash weakens, capital allocation flexibility falls and valuation suffers.
Trex’s brand recognition, exclusive retail presence, and scale as a recycler of polyethylene film create a differentiated moat that limits share loss to price competition. A defensible moat allows Trex to command premium pricing and protect margins; if the moat fails, pricing power and margins will deteriorate.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Trex monetizes the long-term conversion of homeowners from wood to premium, low‑maintenance composite decking by leveraging a dominant brand, wide retail distribution, and proprietary recycled-material manufacturing to generate durable margins and cash flow.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for TREX Co
Where the evidence on TREX Co stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 7, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 1 strengthening and 3 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Ongoing wood→composite conversion, fueled by Trex's brand and retail footprint, will keep top-line sales growing despite cyclical remodeling demand.
Trex’s premium product mix, manufacturing scale and material‑stream improvements can sustain elevated operating margins through cost cycles.
Trex’s business converts a high share of profits into operating cash flow, enabling shareholder returns (buybacks) and selective acquisitions that compound per‑share value.
Trex’s brand recognition, exclusive retail presence, and scale as a recycler of polyethylene film create a differentiated moat that limits share loss to price competition.
Bear case: what would count against it
A national low‑cost composite entrant or large volume of cheaper imports that win retail shelf space and undercut Trex pricing.
Sustained raw material cost increases (resin/plastic film) or logistics cost inflation that Trex cannot fully pass to consumers.
Large working capital swings (inventory build or wholesale receivable pressure) that materially reduce free cash flow.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in TREX Co’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on TREX Co, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for TREX Co.
- Price target fell below the stockcondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 1,809 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
TREX Co filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-04: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
TREX Co filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-24: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
TREX Co filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-04: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- A national low‑cost composite entrant or large volume of cheaper imports that win retail shelf space and undercut Trex pricing.
- Sustained raw material cost increases (resin/plastic film) or logistics cost inflation that Trex cannot fully pass to consumers.
- Large working capital swings (inventory build or wholesale receivable pressure) that materially reduce free cash flow.
- A competitor achieving large, low‑cost scale (domestic or imported) that undercuts Trex pricing and gains shelf space.
TREX news
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Financial statements
TREX income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
TREX: quick answers
- When does TREX Co (TREX) report earnings next?
- TREX Co's next results are projected for February 23, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 4, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is TREX's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 9.5M TREX shares were sold short, 9.49% of its shares outstanding, down 6.3% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 5.2 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. TREX short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded TREX?
- 6 trades in TREX have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed TREX trade