Turning Point Brands
TPBNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $62.81 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $58.76–$61.83 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 482.1K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Mar 1 projected Projected for 2027-03-01 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $54.17–$146.90 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own TPB if its niche branded tobacco and adult-nicotine portfolio keeps translating retailer access and consumer habit into profitable growth, not just volume bought with weaker margins or balance-sheet risk.
TPB price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Turning Point Brands’ branded tobacco and adult-nicotine products retain enough consumer pull and retailer relevance to keep demand converting into sales rather than being displaced by larger tobacco companies, private label, or illicit nicotine alternatives.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual revenue increased from $321.2 million in FY2022 to $325.1 million in FY2023, $360.7 million in FY2024, and $463.1 million in FY2025. If this holds, the company has a real demand engine; if it breaks, the business becomes a shrinking niche distributor with weaker bargaining power.
Watch: Altria, Reynolds American, or other larger nicotine companies win the same retail shelf space with better-funded pouch, cigar, smokeless, or alternative-nicotine offerings.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual revenue increased from $321.2 million in FY2022 to $325.1 million in FY2023, $360.7 million in FY2024, and $463.1.
Open source ↗The company’s brands and product mix provide enough pricing power to absorb input, excise, promotional, and channel costs without gross profit being competed away.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual gross profit rose from $177.8 million in FY2022 to $264.3 million in FY2025. Revenue growth only creates owner value if the company can keep a meaningful share of each incremental dollar after product costs.
Watch: Big Tobacco competitors use promotions or bundled retailer incentives to force price matching in overlapping nicotine categories.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual gross profit rose from $177.8 million in FY2022 to $264.3 million in FY2025.
Open source ↗Turning Point Brands can scale its regulated branded-product platform without compliance, selling, and distribution costs consuming the profit benefits of growth.HoldingMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating income increased from $74.0 million in FY2022 to $95.3 million in FY2025. This determines whether the company is a high-margin niche brand owner or merely a growing but increasingly expensive distributor.
Watch: FDA compliance, litigation, marketing restrictions, or age-verification costs rise faster than gross profit.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating income increased from $74.0 million in FY2022 to $95.3 million in FY2025.
Open source ↗The business model must convert accounting profit into operating cash flow despite working-capital needs in tobacco and nicotine distribution.HoldingMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating cash flow was positive in each year from FY2022 through FY2025. Cash conversion is what funds debt reduction, buybacks, dividends, or reinvestment; weak conversion would make the earnings growth lower quality.
Watch: Inventory builds, receivable pressure, or distributor terms consume cash as the company grows.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating cash flow was positive in each year from FY2022 through FY2025.
Open source ↗Management preserves enough liquidity and balance-sheet flexibility to navigate regulation and fund growth opportunities without letting leverage dictate strategy.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Cash and cash equivalents increased from $48.9 million at FY2024 year-end to $222.8 million at FY2025 year-end. In a regulated category, liquidity can be an advantage; if leverage rises too far, equity holders lose strategic flexibility and downside protection.
Watch: Management deploys cash into expensive acquisitions or product bets that do not strengthen the core branded tobacco and nicotine platform.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Cash and cash equivalents increased from $48.9 million at FY2024 year-end to $222.8 million at FY2025 year-end.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Turning Point Brands’ branded tobacco and adult-nicotine products retain enough consumer pull and retailer relevance to keep demand converting into sales rather than being displaced by larger tobacco companies, private label, or illicit nicotine alternatives. If this holds, the company has a real demand engine; if it breaks, the business becomes a shrinking niche distributor with weaker bargaining power.
The company’s brands and product mix provide enough pricing power to absorb input, excise, promotional, and channel costs without gross profit being competed away. Revenue growth only creates owner value if the company can keep a meaningful share of each incremental dollar after product costs.
Turning Point Brands can scale its regulated branded-product platform without compliance, selling, and distribution costs consuming the profit benefits of growth. This determines whether the company is a high-margin niche brand owner or merely a growing but increasingly expensive distributor.
The business model must convert accounting profit into operating cash flow despite working-capital needs in tobacco and nicotine distribution. Cash conversion is what funds debt reduction, buybacks, dividends, or reinvestment; weak conversion would make the earnings growth lower quality.
Management preserves enough liquidity and balance-sheet flexibility to navigate regulation and fund growth opportunities without letting leverage dictate strategy. In a regulated category, liquidity can be an advantage; if leverage rises too far, equity holders lose strategic flexibility and downside protection.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
its niche branded tobacco and adult-nicotine portfolio keeps translating retailer access and consumer habit into profitable growth, not just volume bought with weaker margins or balance-sheet risk.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Turning Point Brands
Where the evidence on Turning Point Brands stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 15, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 2 strengthening and 3 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Turning Point Brands’ branded tobacco and adult-nicotine products retain enough consumer pull and retailer relevance to keep demand converting into sales rather than being displaced by larger tobacco companies, private label, or illicit nicotine alternatives.
The company’s brands and product mix provide enough pricing power to absorb input, excise, promotional, and channel costs without gross profit being competed away.
Turning Point Brands can scale its regulated branded-product platform without compliance, selling, and distribution costs consuming the profit benefits of growth.
The business model must convert accounting profit into operating cash flow despite working-capital needs in tobacco and nicotine distribution.
Management preserves enough liquidity and balance-sheet flexibility to navigate regulation and fund growth opportunities without letting leverage dictate strategy.
Bear case: what would count against it
Altria, Reynolds American, or other larger nicotine companies win the same retail shelf space with better-funded pouch, cigar, smokeless, or alternative-nicotine offerings.
Big Tobacco competitors use promotions or bundled retailer incentives to force price matching in overlapping nicotine categories.
FDA compliance, litigation, marketing restrictions, or age-verification costs rise faster than gross profit.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Turning Point Brands’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Turning Point Brands, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Turning Point Brands.
- CEO / officer changecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 16,849 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 2% over the next six months, and 38% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
Early warning
The break condition read on the trailing twelve months through Turning Point Brands’s latest quarterly report, ahead of the annual figure it is written on.
- Operating-margin compression, trailing 12 months
Across all companies, this kind of early warning has happened 2,641 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 36% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Turning Point Brands filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-21: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Turning Point Brands filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-04: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Turning Point Brands filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-05-07: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Altria, Reynolds American, or other larger nicotine companies win the same retail shelf space with better-funded pouch, cigar, smokeless, or alternative-nicotine offerings.
- Big Tobacco competitors use promotions or bundled retailer incentives to force price matching in overlapping nicotine categories.
- FDA compliance, litigation, marketing restrictions, or age-verification costs rise faster than gross profit.
- Inventory builds, receivable pressure, or distributor terms consume cash as the company grows.
- Management deploys cash into expensive acquisitions or product bets that do not strengthen the core branded tobacco and nicotine platform.
TPB news
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Financial statements
TPB income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
TPB: quick answers
- When does Turning Point Brands (TPB) report earnings next?
- Turning Point Brands's next results are projected for March 1, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 9, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is TPB's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 3.3M TPB shares were sold short, 16.7% of its shares outstanding, up 2.9% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 9.2 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. TPB short interest history
- Which well-known investors own TPB?
- 1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported TPB shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Maverick Capital, 0.0%. Fund portfolios
TPB in well-known investors’ portfolios
1 of 37 funds reported TPB shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maverick Capital | 0.03% | $3.7M | +12.0% | Q2 2026 |