Talen Energy
TLNNASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $386.68 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $372.78–$390.55 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 1.0M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 13, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 25 projected Projected for 2027-02-25 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $279.77–$449.84 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
- Talen sells electricity, capacity, and ancillary services into wholesale power markets, using auctions, forward contracts, and spot sales; revenue improves when megawatts sell under attractive contracts or higher market prices.↗↗
- Margins depend on existing nuclear and dispatchable plants: fixed costs are high, so availability, fuel spreads, capacity payments, and hedge outcomes drive cash generation.↗↗
Why this business is different
- Susquehanna gives Talen a large carbon-free nuclear source near Pennsylvania data-center demand; Amazon’s long contract can reduce merchant exposure if the ramp and reconfiguration occur.↗↗
- The weakness is volatility: unlike a regulated utility, Talen’s earnings can move with PJM Interconnection rules, transmission approvals, commodity prices, and derivative outcomes.↗↗↗
What could matter next
- The biggest question is whether Amazon becomes a repeatable contracted-power model, with grid-delivered power turning Susquehanna output into durable revenue rather than merchant sales.↗↗
- Cornerstone and PJM auction results matter only if added plants and capacity payments lift per-share cash flow after maintenance and buybacks, not merely asset size.↗
Why the Stock Moved
- June 2025 · Amazon expansion: Regulatory concern shifted toward a larger Amazon contract. The June 2025 Amazon agreement targets 1,920 megawatts by 2032, with contracted supply through 2042. That raised expected durable cash flow and reduced reliance on merchant power prices.↗↗
- March 2024 · Campus value unlocked: Expectations shifted toward monetizing Susquehanna for data-center power, not just wholesale sales. Talen sold the 960-megawatt Cumulus campus and linked value creation to Susquehanna carbon-free power. That expanded the perceived market for nuclear-linked large-load contracts.↗↗
- November 2024 · FERC setback: Confidence in co-located expansion fell. Talen’s November 3 statement reported FERC’s November 1 rejection of an increase from 300 to 480 megawatts; existing capacity remained allowed. Expansion timing and structure became less certain.↗↗
The core investment thesis
Own TLN if contracted data-center power ramps from Susquehanna, PJM capacity stays tight, and management converts volatile merchant cash flow into per-share value without overleveraging.
TLN price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
The stock needs Amazon deliveries to ramp into contracted cash flow without new regulatory delays, customer pullback, or materially weaker realized pricing.StrengtheningMateriality: High
The Amazon agreement ramps toward 1,920 MW by 2032, not current full delivery. The 2025 filing expected full grid transition in spring 2027. The Amazon agreement can turn part of Susquehanna from merchant nuclear output into long-term contracted power, reducing commodity exposure and raising earnings durability.
Watch: Watch grid-delivery transition timing, Amazon load ramp, transmission reconfiguration, and any amendments to minimum delivery or shortfall terms.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
The agreement sets a rising delivery schedule and a 2042 term, with extension options.
Open source ↗Grid transition was expected to begin in spring 2026 and finish in spring 2027.
Open source ↗Talen must keep Susquehanna available and safely operated, because lost nuclear output would reduce contracted delivery capacity and merchant optionality.HoldingMateriality: High
Susquehanna completed its planned Unit 1 refueling outage on May 4, 2026, after starting March 23; that supports availability without eliminating future outage risk. Susquehanna is the economic anchor because it supplies the nuclear output behind the large Amazon arrangement and Talen’s broader carbon-free power narrative.
Watch: Watch refueling schedules, forced-outage disclosures, Nuclear Regulatory Commission issues, and any inability to meet Amazon or market commitments.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
The May completion of planned Unit 1 maintenance supports the availability condition.
Open source ↗Upside depends on PJM capacity scarcity and power demand staying strong enough to support payments to existing reliable generation.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Talen sells capacity through PJM auctions, and its 2026 release reported more than 10 gigawatts cleared for the 2028/2029 planning year. Talen remains exposed to PJM Interconnection capacity and energy prices; tight reserve conditions can materially raise payments to existing dispatchable plants.
Watch: Watch PJM auction clearing prices, rule changes, new generation additions, retirements, and data-center load forecasts.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
More than 10 GW cleared for the 2028/29 planning year at $325 per MW-day, not immediate cash receipts.
Open source ↗Management must convert cash generation into per-share value while keeping acquisition commitments and maintenance needs from crowding out buybacks.UnclearMateriality: High
H1 adjusted free cash flow was $562 million, but reported operating cash was $27 million after $495 million of stock-award settlements. Cornerstone cost $3.5 billion in cash and shares. Buybacks can compound value if cash flow is durable, but acquisitions and leverage can dilute that per-share benefit if returns disappoint.
Watch: Watch leverage, repurchase pace versus share price, acquisition integration, maintenance capital, and whether buybacks are paused for balance-sheet repair.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Cornerstone consideration included $2.6 billion cash, funded from new notes, and approximately $927 million of shares.
Open source ↗Buyback capacity remained $1.7 billion; adjusted free cash flow excludes items included in reported operating cash.
Open source ↗The business needs hedges to protect cash flows without locking away too much upside in tightening PJM power markets.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Q2 stockholder net loss was $92 million despite $374 million adjusted EBITDA. Hedges including the nuclear credit covered 85% of 2026 and 70% of 2027 expected generation. Hedging can stabilize cash flow for a merchant generator, but poor hedge timing, collateral needs, or basis moves can reduce upside or liquidity.
Watch: Watch hedge percentages, collateral postings, realized versus unrealized derivative losses, and power-to-fuel spread changes.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Unrealized commodity losses and higher interest reduced GAAP results; adjusted EBITDA excludes these mark-to-market effects.
Open source ↗The thesis depends on market and transmission rules allowing Talen to monetize reliable power without major price caps, penalties, or stranded costs.UnclearMateriality: Medium
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission rejected the amended Susquehanna interconnection agreement in 2024, while Talen says PJM auction structures affect capacity sales. Regulatory decisions can alter Talen’s route to data-center sales, capacity revenues, fossil-fleet economics, and cost of capital.
Watch: Watch Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, PJM, environmental rules, and transmission-cost allocation proceedings.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
FERC rejected the expanded co-location amendment, not the existing 300 MW arrangement.
Open source ↗Capacity-auction rules and market prices remain important earnings risks.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
The stock needs Amazon deliveries to ramp into contracted cash flow without new regulatory delays, customer pullback, or materially weaker realized pricing. The Amazon agreement can turn part of Susquehanna from merchant nuclear output into long-term contracted power, reducing commodity exposure and raising earnings durability.
Talen must keep Susquehanna available and safely operated, because lost nuclear output would reduce contracted delivery capacity and merchant optionality. Susquehanna is the economic anchor because it supplies the nuclear output behind the large Amazon arrangement and Talen’s broader carbon-free power narrative.
Upside depends on PJM capacity scarcity and power demand staying strong enough to support payments to existing reliable generation. Talen remains exposed to PJM Interconnection capacity and energy prices; tight reserve conditions can materially raise payments to existing dispatchable plants.
Management must convert cash generation into per-share value while keeping acquisition commitments and maintenance needs from crowding out buybacks. Buybacks can compound value if cash flow is durable, but acquisitions and leverage can dilute that per-share benefit if returns disappoint.
The business needs hedges to protect cash flows without locking away too much upside in tightening PJM power markets. Hedging can stabilize cash flow for a merchant generator, but poor hedge timing, collateral needs, or basis moves can reduce upside or liquidity.
The thesis depends on market and transmission rules allowing Talen to monetize reliable power without major price caps, penalties, or stranded costs. Regulatory decisions can alter Talen’s route to data-center sales, capacity revenues, fossil-fleet economics, and cost of capital.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
contracted data-center power ramps from Susquehanna, PJM capacity stays tight, and management converts volatile merchant cash flow into per-share value without overleveraging.
Since this case
What has happened since Sep 29, 2026
The case above was written from evidence through Sep 29, 2026 and stays as written. This part is read from SEC filings and closing prices each time the page is built, so it moves as new reports are filed.
- Results
- Q3 2026, the quarter to Sep 30, 2026, reported Nov 3, 2026 (8-K ↗): revenue $1.33B, up 63.4% on the same quarter a year earlier; net income $138.0M. Over the 12 months to Sep 30, 2026: revenue $3.95B, net income -$452.0M (-11.4% of revenue).
- Share price
- +19.4% since Sep 29, 2026, from $314.84 to $375.98 on Nov 13, 2026. The stock alone, not measured against other companies.
- Filings
- 2 8-K filings since Sep 29, 2026:
- Insiders
- Sold $1.3M on the open market in 1 transaction since Sep 29, 2026, from their Form 4 filings.
- Conditions
- None of the conditions the Thesis-Break Engine checks has crossed on Talen Energy since Sep 29, 2026.
Read from SEC filings and closing prices through Nov 14, 2026. A filing made today can take up to about four hours to appear here.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Talen Energy Corp
Where the evidence on Talen Energy disagrees: Strengthening on the latest evidence (Sep 29, 2026). Of its 6 thesis points, 2 strengthening, 2 holding and 2 unclear.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
The stock needs Amazon deliveries to ramp into contracted cash flow without new regulatory delays, customer pullback, or materially weaker realized pricing.
Talen expands nuclear energy relationship with Amazon, Jun 11, 2025 ↗
Talen must keep Susquehanna available and safely operated, because lost nuclear output would reduce contracted delivery capacity and merchant optionality.
Upside depends on PJM capacity scarcity and power demand staying strong enough to support payments to existing reliable generation.
Talen reports second quarter 2026 results and raises guidance, Aug 5, 2026 ↗
The business needs hedges to protect cash flows without locking away too much upside in tightening PJM power markets.
Talen reports second quarter 2026 results and raises guidance, Aug 5, 2026 ↗
Bear case: what the evidence questions
Management must convert cash generation into per-share value while keeping acquisition commitments and maintenance needs from crowding out buybacks.
The thesis depends on market and transmission rules allowing Talen to monetize reliable power without major price caps, penalties, or stranded costs.
Talen statement on FERC order rejecting Susquehanna ISA, Nov 3, 2024 ↗
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Talen Energy’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Talen Energy, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Talen Energy.
- CEO / officer changecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 16,849 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 2% over the next six months, and 38% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- SupportiveSecond-quarter results lifted 2026 guidance
Talen raised 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $2.025–2.225 billion and adjusted free cash flow to $1.2–1.35 billion after Cornerstone. First-half reported operating cash was only $27 million, including substantial stock-award cash settlements.
- MixedCornerstone assets joined the fleet
The August update confirmed Cornerstone closed June 15, adding Waterford, Darby and Lawrenceburg. The cash-and-share acquisition expands capacity, so fleet growth is not purely organic; attractive per-share returns still require proof.
- SupportiveCapacity auction and data-center pipeline stayed supportive
More than 10 GW cleared the 2028/29 PJM auction at $325 per MW-day. Separately, the roughly 4 GW development pipeline represents contracting options, not executed customer contracts or current revenue.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Watch grid-delivery transition timing, Amazon load ramp, transmission reconfiguration, and any amendments to minimum delivery or shortfall terms.
- Watch refueling schedules, forced-outage disclosures, Nuclear Regulatory Commission issues, and any inability to meet Amazon or market commitments.
- Watch PJM auction clearing prices, rule changes, new generation additions, retirements, and data-center load forecasts.
- Watch leverage, repurchase pace versus share price, acquisition integration, maintenance capital, and whether buybacks are paused for balance-sheet repair.
- Watch hedge percentages, collateral postings, realized versus unrealized derivative losses, and power-to-fuel spread changes.
- Watch Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, PJM, environmental rules, and transmission-cost allocation proceedings.
TLN news
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Financial statements
TLN income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
TLN: quick answers
- When does Talen Energy (TLN) report earnings next?
- Talen Energy's next results are projected for February 25, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 3, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is TLN's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 4.6M TLN shares were sold short, 10.5% of its shares outstanding, up 8.7% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 5.5 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. TLN short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded TLN?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 2 trades in TLN by 1 filer: 2 purchases and 0 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed TLN trade
- Which well-known investors own TLN?
- 3 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported TLN shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Oaktree Capital Management (Howard Marks), 1.8%; Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.2%; Soros Fund Management (George Soros), 0.0%. Fund portfolios
TLN in well-known investors’ portfolios
3 of 37 funds reported TLN shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Howard MarksOaktree Capital Management | 1.8% | $127M | No change | Q2 2026 |
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.19% | $46.7M | −54.3% | Q2 2026 |
| George SorosSoros Fund Management | 0.01% | $774K | +35.0% | Q3 2026 |