The Hanover Insurance Group
THGNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $250.21 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $246.19–$250.18 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 240.3K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 3 projected Projected for 2027-02-03 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $166.54–$256.74 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own THG if Hanover is a disciplined U.S. property-casualty underwriter whose value creation depends on keeping rate, risk selection, reserves, and catastrophe exposure ahead of loss-cost inflation through the insurance cycle.
THG price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Hanover’s independent-agent P&C franchise can continue converting loss-cost inflation into adequate renewal pricing without losing enough policy volume to impair the book.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual revenue increased from $5.23 billion in FY2021 to $6.59 billion in FY2025. If rate adequacy holds, premium growth can be economically valuable rather than growth bought by underpriced risk; if it breaks, revenue growth could mask future loss emergence.
Watch: Travelers, Chubb, Hartford, Progressive, or other large P&C carriers aggressively cut commercial or personal-lines rates through independent agents to take share.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual revenue increased from $5.23 billion in FY2021 to $6.59 billion in FY2025.
Open source ↗The 2024-2025 profit rebound reflects better underwriting, pricing, and risk selection rather than a one-off lull in catastrophe losses.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual operating income improved from $105.6 million in FY2023 to $650.1 million in FY2024 and $933.0 million in FY2025. This determines whether investors should capitalize recent earnings as repeatable or discount them as cyclical insurance-cycle profits.
Watch: A materially more active catastrophe year reveals that Hanover’s geographic and property exposure remains underpriced.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating income improved from $105.6 million in FY2023 to $650.1 million in FY2024 and $933.0 million in FY2025.
Open source ↗Hanover’s insurance float remains a source of operating cash rather than a funding strain, allowing the company to absorb claims volatility and reinvest premiums before losses are paid.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating cash flow increased from $361.7 million in FY2023 to $806.4 million in FY2024 and $1.18 billion in FY2025. If float is cash-generative, the insurer can compound book value and maintain underwriting capacity; if claim payments outrun premium cash, balance-sheet flexibility shrinks quickly.
Watch: A cluster of catastrophe losses forces large near-term claim payments before reinsurance recoveries are received.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating cash flow increased from $361.7 million in FY2023 to $806.4 million in FY2024 and $1.18 billion in.
Open source ↗Hanover can preserve and grow its capital base through the insurance cycle, sustaining underwriting capacity after catastrophe and reserve shocks.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP stockholders’ equity increased from $2.47 billion at FY2023 year-end to $2.84 billion at FY2024 year-end and $3.57 billion at FY2025 year-end. Capital strength governs how much profitable business the insurer can write and whether downturns create dilution, rating pressure, or forced retrenchment.
Watch: Adverse prior-year reserve development consumes statutory capital and signals that past underwriting was underpriced.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP stockholders’ equity increased from $2.47 billion at FY2023 year-end to $2.84 billion at FY2024 year-end and $3.57 billion at.
Open source ↗Per-share value creation depends on Hanover proving FY2025 earnings are repeatable across normal catastrophe and reserve conditions, not just peak-cycle P&C profitability.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual diluted EPS rose from $0.98 in FY2023 to $11.70 in FY2024 and $18.16 in FY2025. If FY2025 diluted EPS is sustainable, the stock can support a higher normalized earnings base; if it is peak-cycle, reported EPS may overstate intrinsic earning power.
Watch: A softening P&C pricing cycle causes competitors to write business below technical price, pulling Hanover’s margins down if it follows.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual diluted EPS rose from $0.98 in FY2023 to $11.70 in FY2024 and $18.16 in FY2025.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Hanover’s independent-agent P&C franchise can continue converting loss-cost inflation into adequate renewal pricing without losing enough policy volume to impair the book. If rate adequacy holds, premium growth can be economically valuable rather than growth bought by underpriced risk; if it breaks, revenue growth could mask future loss emergence.
The 2024-2025 profit rebound reflects better underwriting, pricing, and risk selection rather than a one-off lull in catastrophe losses. This determines whether investors should capitalize recent earnings as repeatable or discount them as cyclical insurance-cycle profits.
Hanover’s insurance float remains a source of operating cash rather than a funding strain, allowing the company to absorb claims volatility and reinvest premiums before losses are paid. If float is cash-generative, the insurer can compound book value and maintain underwriting capacity; if claim payments outrun premium cash, balance-sheet flexibility shrinks quickly.
Hanover can preserve and grow its capital base through the insurance cycle, sustaining underwriting capacity after catastrophe and reserve shocks. Capital strength governs how much profitable business the insurer can write and whether downturns create dilution, rating pressure, or forced retrenchment.
Per-share value creation depends on Hanover proving FY2025 earnings are repeatable across normal catastrophe and reserve conditions, not just peak-cycle P&C profitability. If FY2025 diluted EPS is sustainable, the stock can support a higher normalized earnings base; if it is peak-cycle, reported EPS may overstate intrinsic earning power.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Hanover is a disciplined U.S. property-casualty underwriter whose value creation depends on keeping rate, risk selection, reserves, and catastrophe exposure ahead of loss-cost inflation through the insurance cycle.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Hanover Insurance Group
Where the evidence on Hanover Insurance Group stands: Strengthening on the latest evidence (Oct 15, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 5 strengthening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Hanover’s independent-agent P&C franchise can continue converting loss-cost inflation into adequate renewal pricing without losing enough policy volume to impair the book.
The 2024-2025 profit rebound reflects better underwriting, pricing, and risk selection rather than a one-off lull in catastrophe losses.
Hanover’s insurance float remains a source of operating cash rather than a funding strain, allowing the company to absorb claims volatility and reinvest premiums before losses are paid.
Hanover can preserve and grow its capital base through the insurance cycle, sustaining underwriting capacity after catastrophe and reserve shocks.
Per-share value creation depends on Hanover proving FY2025 earnings are repeatable across normal catastrophe and reserve conditions, not just peak-cycle P&C profitability.
Bear case: what would count against it
Travelers, Chubb, Hartford, Progressive, or other large P&C carriers aggressively cut commercial or personal-lines rates through independent agents to take share.
A materially more active catastrophe year reveals that Hanover’s geographic and property exposure remains underpriced.
A cluster of catastrophe losses forces large near-term claim payments before reinsurance recoveries are received.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · Hanover Insurance Group
No break has crossed Hanover Insurance Group’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Hanover Insurance Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-28: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Hanover Insurance Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-15: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Hanover Insurance Group filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-05-13: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Travelers, Chubb, Hartford, Progressive, or other large P&C carriers aggressively cut commercial or personal-lines rates through independent agents to take share.
- A materially more active catastrophe year reveals that Hanover’s geographic and property exposure remains underpriced.
- A cluster of catastrophe losses forces large near-term claim payments before reinsurance recoveries are received.
- Adverse prior-year reserve development consumes statutory capital and signals that past underwriting was underpriced.
- A softening P&C pricing cycle causes competitors to write business below technical price, pulling Hanover’s margins down if it follows.
THG news
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Financial statements
THG income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
THG: quick answers
- When does Hanover Insurance Group (THG) report earnings next?
- Hanover Insurance Group's next results are projected for February 3, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 28, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is THG's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 937,684 THG shares were sold short, down 7.1% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.2 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. THG short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded THG?
- 7 trades in THG have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed THG trade
- Which well-known investors own THG?
- 2 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported THG shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Markel Group (Tom Gayner), 0.5%; Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios
THG in well-known investors’ portfolios
2 of 37 funds reported THG shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom GaynerMarkel Group | 0.47% | $60.2M | No change | Q3 2026 |
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.02% | $6.0M | +76.2% | Q2 2026 |