TFI International
TFIINYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $94.33 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $94.25–$96.89 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 374.0K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Not yet confirmed The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
- $80.63–$167.69 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own TFII if its acquisition-led trucking and courier model keeps converting cyclical freight assets into durable cash flow faster than leverage and freight-cycle pressure erode margins.
TFII price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
TFI’s acquisition-and-integration model must keep turning a fragmented trucking and courier market into cash, not just a larger asset base.StrengtheningMateriality: High
IFRS annual operating cash flow was $977.8 million in FY2025, only modestly below $1.063 billion in FY2024 despite weaker earnings. If this holds, TFII can compound through cycles by buying and improving transport assets; if it breaks, growth becomes capital-intensive roll-up activity with weak returns.
Watch: TFI overpays for acquisitions because strategic buyers or private-equity-backed transport consolidators bid up trucking and courier assets.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
IFRS annual operating cash flow was $977.8 million in FY2025, only modestly below $1.063 billion in FY2024 despite weaker earnings.
Open source ↗TFI’s pricing and cost discipline must prove strong enough to restore transport margins when freight demand normalizes.WeakeningMateriality: High
TFI remained profitable in FY2025 with IFRS annual operating income of $565.3 million. Margin recovery would make the downturn an earnings trough; sustained price/cost pressure would make the lower earnings base structural.
Watch: Prolonged North American trucking overcapacity keeps spot and contract rates under pressure before reported margins recover.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
TFI remained profitable in FY2025 with IFRS annual operating income of $565.3 million.
Open source ↗TFI’s customer demand must remain cyclical rather than structurally impaired, with shippers continuing to need its trucking and courier network as freight activity recovers.HoldingMateriality: Medium
IFRS annual revenue was $7.885 billion in FY2025, still above FY2021 revenue of $7.220 billion. If demand is cyclical, revenue can rebound with freight markets; if customers permanently shift volumes away, the company loses operating leverage and acquisition capacity.
Watch: Major shippers consolidate freight with integrated parcel and LTL networks such as UPS, FedEx, or Amazon Logistics, reducing TFII lane density before revenue rolls over further.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
IFRS annual revenue was $7.885 billion in FY2025, still above FY2021 revenue of $7.220 billion.
Open source ↗TFI’s balance sheet must leave enough flexibility to keep acquiring and optimizing assets without letting leverage dictate strategy.HoldingMateriality: Medium
TFI still had IFRS equity of $2.678 billion at FY2025 year-end, broadly stable versus $2.673 billion at FY2024 year-end. Financial flexibility is central to a consolidator; if liabilities constrain capital allocation, TFII loses the ability to exploit downturn opportunities.
Watch: Debt-funded acquisitions continue while freight earnings remain depressed, raising refinancing or covenant risk before earnings recover.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
TFI still had IFRS equity of $2.678 billion at FY2025 year-end, broadly stable versus $2.673 billion at FY2024 year-end.
Open source ↗Per-share value creation must come from disciplined capital allocation that offsets freight cyclicality, rather than from revenue scale alone.WeakeningMateriality: Medium
IFRS diluted EPS has remained positive in every annual period shown from FY2021 through FY2025. Owners are paid on per-share earnings and cash returns; if acquisitions and reinvestment do not lift per-share economics, the business can grow while shareholders do not.
Watch: Management issues equity or accepts dilution to fund acquisitions without commensurate returns.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
IFRS diluted EPS has remained positive in every annual period shown from FY2021 through FY2025.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
TFI’s acquisition-and-integration model must keep turning a fragmented trucking and courier market into cash, not just a larger asset base. If this holds, TFII can compound through cycles by buying and improving transport assets; if it breaks, growth becomes capital-intensive roll-up activity with weak returns.
TFI’s pricing and cost discipline must prove strong enough to restore transport margins when freight demand normalizes. Margin recovery would make the downturn an earnings trough; sustained price/cost pressure would make the lower earnings base structural.
TFI’s customer demand must remain cyclical rather than structurally impaired, with shippers continuing to need its trucking and courier network as freight activity recovers. If demand is cyclical, revenue can rebound with freight markets; if customers permanently shift volumes away, the company loses operating leverage and acquisition capacity.
TFI’s balance sheet must leave enough flexibility to keep acquiring and optimizing assets without letting leverage dictate strategy. Financial flexibility is central to a consolidator; if liabilities constrain capital allocation, TFII loses the ability to exploit downturn opportunities.
Per-share value creation must come from disciplined capital allocation that offsets freight cyclicality, rather than from revenue scale alone. Owners are paid on per-share earnings and cash returns; if acquisitions and reinvestment do not lift per-share economics, the business can grow while shareholders do not.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
its acquisition-led trucking and courier model keeps converting cyclical freight assets into durable cash flow faster than leverage and freight-cycle pressure erode margins.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for TFI International
Where the evidence on TFI International disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Oct 15, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 1 strengthening, 2 holding and 2 weakening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
TFI’s acquisition-and-integration model must keep turning a fragmented trucking and courier market into cash, not just a larger asset base.
TFI’s customer demand must remain cyclical rather than structurally impaired, with shippers continuing to need its trucking and courier network as freight activity recovers.
TFI’s balance sheet must leave enough flexibility to keep acquiring and optimizing assets without letting leverage dictate strategy.
Bear case: what the evidence questions
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in TFI International’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on TFI International, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for TFI International.
- Sharp drawdowncondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 15,428 times before. Those stocks beat comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedForeign issuer material report (6-K).
TFI International filed an SEC report on 2026-10-01: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedForeign issuer material report (6-K).
TFI International filed an SEC report on 2026-09-17: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedForeign issuer material report (6-K).
TFI International filed an SEC report on 2026-09-15: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- TFI overpays for acquisitions because strategic buyers or private-equity-backed transport consolidators bid up trucking and courier assets.
- Prolonged North American trucking overcapacity keeps spot and contract rates under pressure before reported margins recover.
- Major shippers consolidate freight with integrated parcel and LTL networks such as UPS, FedEx, or Amazon Logistics, reducing TFII lane density before revenue rolls over further.
- Debt-funded acquisitions continue while freight earnings remain depressed, raising refinancing or covenant risk before earnings recover.
- Management issues equity or accepts dilution to fund acquisitions without commensurate returns.
TFII news
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Financial statements
TFII income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
TFII: quick answers
- What is TFII's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 2.0M TFII shares were sold short, up 6.0% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 5.0 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. TFII short interest history
- Which well-known investors own TFII?
- 1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported TFII shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Maverick Capital, 0.0%. Fund portfolios
TFII in well-known investors’ portfolios
1 of 37 funds reported TFII shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maverick Capital | 0.02% | $1.9M | −3.4% | Q2 2026 |