Telephone and Data Systems

TDSNYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

Email me when the TDS thesis changes

Evidence-based analysis, not personalized investment advice. Every alert email carries an unsubscribe link.

Follow on X
$31.78
−$0.99 (−3.02%)Today 1M −2.27%
After hours$32.00+0.69%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$32.77
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$31.47–$32.75
Regular-session low and high so far today.
1.3M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Feb 19 projected
Projected for 2027-02-19 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$30.71–$49.12
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own TDS if subscribers/ARPU and OCF hold, the company can fund dividends and modest growth, but the story is fragile to broadband share loss from cable/5G competitors.

TDS price history

Latest price$31.78Today−$0.99 (-3.02%)
TDS -8.63%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

Loading recent earnings…

Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • TDS's subscription business (broadband/video/voice/wireless) will keep overall revenue roughly stable, because recurring connections and local incumbency limit churn and preserve ARPU in core markets.HoldingMateriality: High

    Revenue has moderated but not collapsed: $1.355B (2023) -> $1.296B (2024) -> $1.228B (2025). If true, revenue stability protects cash flow and funds dividends/capex; if false, revenue declines will force deeper cuts, asset sales or impairments.

    Watch: Sustained, multi-market broadband share gains by major cable operators (Charter/Comcast) or aggressive fixed-wireless rollout by Verizon/AT&T that materially increases churn or forces price cuts in TDS markets.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Revenue has moderated but not collapsed: $1.355B (2023) -> $1.296B (2024) -> $1.228B (2025).

    Open source ↗
  • TDS's operating cash flow is the business engine that will fund capex, dividends and balance‑sheet flexibility even as GAAP profits lag; maintaining OCF prevents forced asset sales.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    Operating cash flow historically large: $1.141B (2023) and $1.145B (2024), and positive at $589.889M (2025) despite lower revenue. Strong OCF preserves strategic optionality and supports shareholder returns; sustained OCF erosion would force hard choices (debt, sell assets, cut dividends).

    Watch: Structural subscriber losses or ARPU compression that materially reduce cash collection or increase working capital needs.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Operating cash flow historically large: $1.141B (2023) and $1.145B (2024), and positive at $589.889M (2025) despite lower revenue.

    Open source ↗
  • The trend of narrowing operating losses reflects the resolution of prior one-time charges and cost actions, so operating income will continue toward sustainable break-even/positive as those non-recurring items wind down.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Operating income improved materially: -$682.566M (2023) -> -$191.259M (2024) -> -$97.385M (2025). If operating_loss improvement is structural, GAAP profitability will follow and justify a higher valuation; if improvement is temporary, earnings will re-worsen when charges recur.

    Watch: Recurrent impairment charges, regulatory penalties, or additional restructuring/transaction costs materializing in future periods.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Operating income improved materially: -$682.566M (2023) -> -$191.259M (2024) -> -$97.385M (2025).

    Open source ↗
  • TDS's cash and equity base provide balance-sheet optionality to invest in network, withstand competition pressure, and avoid distressed asset sales in the near term.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Cash rose to $765.952M at 12/31/2025 from $363.612M at 12/31/2024. If liquidity holds, management can prioritize strategic capex and dividends; if liquidity tightens, the company may be forced to cut returns or sell assets at poor prices.

    Watch: Immediate large cash outflows from debt maturities or covenant breaches not covered by current liquidity, or material contingent liabilities disclosed.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Cash rose to $765.952M at 12/31/2025 from $363.612M at 12/31/2024.

    Open source ↗
  • The sharp revenue and asset swings since 2022 are primarily from portfolio and balance-sheet transactions (disposals/spin-offs) rather than pure operating collapse, so the post‑change business is smaller but more focused.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    Assets fell from $14.55B (12/31/2022) to $8.135B (12/31/2023) and then show other large movements to $13.682B (12/31/2024) and $8.3983B (12/31/2025), paired with revenue falling from $5.413B (2022) to ~$1.23B (2025). If the declines stem from disposals, the remaining business can be judged on its own cash flow; if they reflect operating attrition, the core franchise is weaker than it appears.

    Watch: Public disclosure that revenue declines were primarily due to sustained subscriber losses rather than divestitures.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Assets fell from $14.55B (12/31/2022) to $8.135B (12/31/2023) and then show other large movements to $13.682B (12/31/2024) and $8.3983B (12/31/2025).

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

Loading the original research archive…

Original research

TDS's subscription business (broadband/video/voice/wireless) will keep overall revenue roughly stable, because recurring connections and local incumbency limit churn and preserve ARPU in core markets. If true, revenue stability protects cash flow and funds dividends/capex; if false, revenue declines will force deeper cuts, asset sales or impairments.

TDS's operating cash flow is the business engine that will fund capex, dividends and balance‑sheet flexibility even as GAAP profits lag; maintaining OCF prevents forced asset sales. Strong OCF preserves strategic optionality and supports shareholder returns; sustained OCF erosion would force hard choices (debt, sell assets, cut dividends).

The trend of narrowing operating losses reflects the resolution of prior one-time charges and cost actions, so operating income will continue toward sustainable break-even/positive as those non-recurring items wind down. If operating_loss improvement is structural, GAAP profitability will follow and justify a higher valuation; if improvement is temporary, earnings will re-worsen when charges recur.

TDS's cash and equity base provide balance-sheet optionality to invest in network, withstand competition pressure, and avoid distressed asset sales in the near term. If liquidity holds, management can prioritize strategic capex and dividends; if liquidity tightens, the company may be forced to cut returns or sell assets at poor prices.

The sharp revenue and asset swings since 2022 are primarily from portfolio and balance-sheet transactions (disposals/spin-offs) rather than pure operating collapse, so the post‑change business is smaller but more focused. If the declines stem from disposals, the remaining business can be judged on its own cash flow; if they reflect operating attrition, the core franchise is weaker than it appears.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

subscribers/ARPU and OCF hold, the company can fund dividends and modest growth, but the story is fragile to broadband share loss from cable/5G competitors.

Evidence assessed Oct 25, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Telephone & Data Systems

Where the evidence on Telephone & Data Systems stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 25, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 2 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • TDS's subscription business (broadband/video/voice/wireless) will keep overall revenue roughly stable, because recurring connections and local incumbency limit churn and preserve ARPU in core markets.

    sec.gov ↗

  • TDS's operating cash flow is the business engine that will fund capex, dividends and balance‑sheet flexibility even as GAAP profits lag; maintaining OCF prevents forced asset sales.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The trend of narrowing operating losses reflects the resolution of prior one-time charges and cost actions, so operating income will continue toward sustainable break-even/positive as those non-recurring items wind down.

    sec.gov ↗

  • TDS's cash and equity base provide balance-sheet optionality to invest in network, withstand competition pressure, and avoid distressed asset sales in the near term.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The sharp revenue and asset swings since 2022 are primarily from portfolio and balance-sheet transactions (disposals/spin-offs) rather than pure operating collapse, so the post‑change business is smaller but more focused.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Sustained, multi-market broadband share gains by major cable operators (Charter/Comcast) or aggressive fixed-wireless rollout by Verizon/AT&T that materially increases churn or forces price cuts in TDS markets.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Structural subscriber losses or ARPU compression that materially reduce cash collection or increase working capital needs.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Recurrent impairment charges, regulatory penalties, or additional restructuring/transaction costs materializing in future periods.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · Telephone & Data Systems

12 mo agonow
Trailing daily price. No thesis break has crossed here, so there is no break base rate to project.

No break has crossed Telephone & Data Systems’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Other material event.

    Telephone & Data Systems filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-02: Other material event. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Telephone & Data Systems filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-07: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Completed an acquisition or disposition of assets.

    Telephone & Data Systems filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-06-01: Completed an acquisition or disposition of assets. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Sustained, multi-market broadband share gains by major cable operators (Charter/Comcast) or aggressive fixed-wireless rollout by Verizon/AT&T that materially increases churn or forces price cuts in TDS markets.
  • Structural subscriber losses or ARPU compression that materially reduce cash collection or increase working capital needs.
  • Recurrent impairment charges, regulatory penalties, or additional restructuring/transaction costs materializing in future periods.
  • Immediate large cash outflows from debt maturities or covenant breaches not covered by current liquidity, or material contingent liabilities disclosed.
  • Public disclosure that revenue declines were primarily due to sustained subscriber losses rather than divestitures.

TDS news

Loading headlines…

Financial statements

TDS income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

TDS: quick answers

When does Telephone & Data Systems (TDS) report earnings next?
Telephone & Data Systems's next results are projected for February 19, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 6, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is TDS's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 6.9M TDS shares were sold short, 6.77% of its shares outstanding, up 8.9% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.8 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. TDS short interest history
Have members of Congress traded TDS?
2 trades in TDS have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed TDS trade
Which well-known investors own TDS?
2 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported TDS shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Third Point (Dan Loeb), 5.0%; Oaktree Capital Management (Howard Marks), 2.7%. Fund portfolios

TDS in well-known investors’ portfolios

2 of 37 funds reported TDS shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Dan LoebThird Point5.0%$232M−4.9%Q2 2026
Howard MarksOaktree Capital Management2.7%$196M+23.1%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

ScoutJUST THIS STORY

LET’S MAKE THIS USEFUL · 1 OF 5

How would you like me to explain this?

Tell me what you want from this read. Start with a quick note, then adjust the details. Your other stories stay as they are.

We’ll remember your view of this story. The published article stays unchanged.

THIS STORY’S READING VIEWStandard · The whole picture

Clear explanations with context. Both sides of the evidence.