Texas Capital Bancshares
TCBITXSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $101.03 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $99.10–$99.60 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 535.5K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 6, 4:00 PM ET.
- Jan 21 projected Projected for 2027-01-21 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $82.15–$108.92 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own TCBI if Texas Capital is a Texas-focused commercial bank whose relationship lending and redeployment of liquidity into earning assets drive volatile but potentially high returns when credit and rates normalize; the stock needs sustained loan growth.
TCBI price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
TCBI’s regional, relationship-driven lending model converts client relationships and redeployed liquidity into material net income when loan demand and spreads are favorable.HoldingMateriality: High
Net income recovered to $330,244,000 in fiscal 2025 from $77,508,000 in fiscal 2024, showing the franchise can re-generate earnings. If true, the bank can compound equity through organic lending and retain margins; if false, earnings will be exposed to pricing competition and volatile deposit funding, capping returns.
Watch: Sustained deposit outflows or an aggressive deposit-pricing war from larger national banks or fintech competitors that force higher funding costs and compress spreads.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Net income recovered to $330,244,000 in fiscal 2025 from $77,508,000 in fiscal 2024, showing the franchise can re-generate earnings.
Open source ↗Earnings are highly cyclical and materially sensitive to credit provisioning and one-time items; sustainable EPS depends on stable credit metrics and low provisioning going forward.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Diluted EPS swung from $1.28 in FY2024 to $6.79 in FY2025, demonstrating large earnings sensitivity to provisions/one-offs. If credit losses rise again, the 2025 EPS rebound can reverse quickly; stable credit metrics would validate higher forward EPS and capital returns.
Watch: A material increase in nonperforming assets—particularly commercial real estate exposures—that forces recurring elevated provisions.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Diluted EPS swung from $1.28 in FY2024 to $6.79 in FY2025, demonstrating large earnings sensitivity to provisions/one-offs.
Open source ↗The company has been redeploying cash into earning assets (shrinking cash balances while assets rose), and continued redeployment into loans is required to sustain revenue growth.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Cash fell from $5,012,260,000 at FY2022 to $2,099,118,000 at FY2025 while assets rose from $28.356B (2023) to $31.540B (2025), consistent with redeployment into earning assets. If cash is being productively redeployed into loans at attractive spreads, revenue and net income can sustain; if redeployment stalls or is reversed, revenue growth will slow.
Watch: A sudden need to rebuild liquidity (e.g., deposit outflows) that forces asset sales or loan runoff, reversing the redeployment trend.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Cash fell from $5,012,260,000 at FY2022 to $2,099,118,000 at FY2025 while assets rose from $28.356B (2023) to $31.540B (2025), consistent.
Open source ↗TCBI’s operating cash flow and equity base provide the foundation to support organic growth and possible capital returns if credit remains controlled.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Operating cash flow was $360,154,000 in FY2025 (and $480,088,000 in FY2024), showing material cash generation capability. Sustained operating cash flow and stable equity would enable buybacks/dividends and fund loan growth without diluting shareholders; if cash flow collapses, capital returns become impossible.
Watch: A multi-quarter drop in operating cash flow due to elevated charge-offs or margin compression that forces balance-sheet strengthening rather than shareholder distributions.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating cash flow was $360,154,000 in FY2025 (and $480,088,000 in FY2024), showing material cash generation capability.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
TCBI’s regional, relationship-driven lending model converts client relationships and redeployed liquidity into material net income when loan demand and spreads are favorable. If true, the bank can compound equity through organic lending and retain margins; if false, earnings will be exposed to pricing competition and volatile deposit funding, capping returns.
Earnings are highly cyclical and materially sensitive to credit provisioning and one-time items; sustainable EPS depends on stable credit metrics and low provisioning going forward. If credit losses rise again, the 2025 EPS rebound can reverse quickly; stable credit metrics would validate higher forward EPS and capital returns.
The company has been redeploying cash into earning assets (shrinking cash balances while assets rose), and continued redeployment into loans is required to sustain revenue growth. If cash is being productively redeployed into loans at attractive spreads, revenue and net income can sustain; if redeployment stalls or is reversed, revenue growth will slow.
TCBI’s operating cash flow and equity base provide the foundation to support organic growth and possible capital returns if credit remains controlled. Sustained operating cash flow and stable equity would enable buybacks/dividends and fund loan growth without diluting shareholders; if cash flow collapses, capital returns become impossible.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Texas Capital is a Texas-focused commercial bank whose relationship lending and redeployment of liquidity into earning assets drive volatile but potentially high returns when credit and rates normalize; the stock needs sustained loan growth.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Texas Capital Bancshares
Where the evidence on Texas Capital Bancshares stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 15, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 1 strengthening and 3 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
TCBI’s regional, relationship-driven lending model converts client relationships and redeployed liquidity into material net income when loan demand and spreads are favorable.
Earnings are highly cyclical and materially sensitive to credit provisioning and one-time items; sustainable EPS depends on stable credit metrics and low provisioning going forward.
The company has been redeploying cash into earning assets (shrinking cash balances while assets rose), and continued redeployment into loans is required to sustain revenue growth.
TCBI’s operating cash flow and equity base provide the foundation to support organic growth and possible capital returns if credit remains controlled.
Bear case: what would count against it
Sustained deposit outflows or an aggressive deposit-pricing war from larger national banks or fintech competitors that force higher funding costs and compress spreads.
A material increase in nonperforming assets—particularly commercial real estate exposures—that forces recurring elevated provisions.
A sudden need to rebuild liquidity (e.g., deposit outflows) that forces asset sales or loan runoff, reversing the redeployment trend.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Texas Capital Bancshares’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Texas Capital Bancshares, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Texas Capital Bancshares.
- Delistingcondition set before this filing
- CEO / officer changecondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 16,849 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 2% over the next six months, and 38% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
Several kinds of break have stacked on Texas Capital Bancshares at once. A cluster is a stronger read than any one signal alone.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Texas Capital Bancshares filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-16: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDelisting notice or listing-rule failure.
Texas Capital Bancshares filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-14: Delisting notice or listing-rule failure. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Texas Capital Bancshares filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-22: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Sustained deposit outflows or an aggressive deposit-pricing war from larger national banks or fintech competitors that force higher funding costs and compress spreads.
- A material increase in nonperforming assets—particularly commercial real estate exposures—that forces recurring elevated provisions.
- A sudden need to rebuild liquidity (e.g., deposit outflows) that forces asset sales or loan runoff, reversing the redeployment trend.
- A multi-quarter drop in operating cash flow due to elevated charge-offs or margin compression that forces balance-sheet strengthening rather than shareholder distributions.
TCBI news
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Financial statements
TCBI income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
TCBI: quick answers
- When does Texas Capital Bancshares (TCBI) report earnings next?
- Texas Capital Bancshares's next results are projected for January 21, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 21, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is TCBI's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 1.9M TCBI shares were sold short, 4.56% of its shares outstanding, down 40.4% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.5 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. TCBI short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded TCBI?
- 10 trades in TCBI have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed TCBI trade