TAL Education Group
TALNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $10.08 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $10.03–$10.17 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 4.4M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Not yet confirmed The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
- $8.88–$13.23 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own TAL if TAL is a post-regulatory-reset China education turnaround whose value depends on proving that its rebuilt, compliant learning-services model can keep scaling profitably without inviting another regulatory or competitive shock.
TAL price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Parents’ willingness to pay for TAL’s compliant learning services and education products continues to replace the old K-12 tutoring demand channel rather than fading as a reopening/rebuild effect.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual revenue rose from $1.0198 billion in FY2023 to $1.4904 billion in FY2024, $2.2502 billion in FY2025, and $3.0089 billion in FY2026. If this holds, TAL has a real post-regulation growth engine; if it breaks, the company is just recovering from a depressed base.
Watch: Chinese regulators issue new rules that classify TAL’s main learning-service or learning-product offerings as restricted tutoring.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual revenue rose from $1.0198 billion in FY2023 to $1.4904 billion in FY2024, $2.2502 billion in FY2025, and $3.0089.
Open source ↗TAL’s brand, teaching content, and delivery know-how preserve enough pricing power that growth does not have to be bought through discounting or structurally lower-margin product mix.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP annual gross profit increased from $583.4 million in FY2023 to $806.1 million in FY2024, $1.2003 billion in FY2025, and $1.6655 billion in FY2026. Durable gross economics separate a valuable education platform from a price-competing tutoring retailer.
Watch: New Oriental, Gaotu, or local education providers start a sustained price war in TAL’s permitted learning categories.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual gross profit increased from $583.4 million in FY2023 to $806.1 million in FY2024, $1.2003 billion in FY2025, and.
Open source ↗TAL’s rebuilt model scales with operating leverage because centralized content, technology, and existing education infrastructure absorb growth without requiring a proportional increase in staff, rent, and selling expense.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating income improved from a loss of $90.7 million in FY2023 and a loss of $69.2 million in FY2024 to near breakeven in FY2025 and positive $276.0 million in FY2026. This determines whether revenue growth compounds into owner earnings or is consumed by the cost of rebuilding the network.
Watch: TAL must reopen a large physical-center footprint or hire teachers and sales staff faster than revenue grows to sustain demand.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating income improved from a loss of $90.7 million in FY2023 and a loss of $69.2 million in.
Open source ↗The education model remains cash-generative because customers pay reliably and working capital does not reverse as TAL grows beyond the post-crackdown recovery phase.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating cash flow was positive in each presented year, rising from $7.4 million in FY2023 to $306.2 million in FY2024, $397.9 million in FY2025, and $601.5 million in FY2026. Cash conversion funds growth and protects shareholders from dilution or balance-sheet stress.
Watch: Regulators impose tighter limits on prepaid tuition or customer advances, weakening the cash cycle before revenue is recognized.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating cash flow was positive in each presented year, rising from $7.4 million in FY2023 to $306.2 million.
Open source ↗TAL’s cash-rich balance sheet gives it time to invest through regulatory uncertainty, but the thesis requires capital allocation to remain disciplined rather than consuming the cash buffer in low-return expansion.HoldingMateriality: Medium
Cash and cash equivalents were $1.5239 billion at FY2026 year-end. The balance sheet can be a strategic asset only if it protects and compounds per-share value instead of funding value-destructive reinvestment.
Watch: Management deploys large amounts of cash into acquisitions, new offline locations, or hardware initiatives without evidence of attractive returns.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Cash and cash equivalents were $1.5239 billion at FY2026 year-end.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Parents’ willingness to pay for TAL’s compliant learning services and education products continues to replace the old K-12 tutoring demand channel rather than fading as a reopening/rebuild effect. If this holds, TAL has a real post-regulation growth engine; if it breaks, the company is just recovering from a depressed base.
TAL’s brand, teaching content, and delivery know-how preserve enough pricing power that growth does not have to be bought through discounting or structurally lower-margin product mix. Durable gross economics separate a valuable education platform from a price-competing tutoring retailer.
TAL’s rebuilt model scales with operating leverage because centralized content, technology, and existing education infrastructure absorb growth without requiring a proportional increase in staff, rent, and selling expense. This determines whether revenue growth compounds into owner earnings or is consumed by the cost of rebuilding the network.
The education model remains cash-generative because customers pay reliably and working capital does not reverse as TAL grows beyond the post-crackdown recovery phase. Cash conversion funds growth and protects shareholders from dilution or balance-sheet stress.
TAL’s cash-rich balance sheet gives it time to invest through regulatory uncertainty, but the thesis requires capital allocation to remain disciplined rather than consuming the cash buffer in low-return expansion. The balance sheet can be a strategic asset only if it protects and compounds per-share value instead of funding value-destructive reinvestment.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
TAL is a post-regulatory-reset China education turnaround whose value depends on proving that its rebuilt, compliant learning-services model can keep scaling profitably without inviting another regulatory or competitive shock.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for TAL Education Group
Where the evidence on TAL Education Group stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 10, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 4 strengthening and 1 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Parents’ willingness to pay for TAL’s compliant learning services and education products continues to replace the old K-12 tutoring demand channel rather than fading as a reopening/rebuild effect.
TAL’s brand, teaching content, and delivery know-how preserve enough pricing power that growth does not have to be bought through discounting or structurally lower-margin product mix.
TAL’s rebuilt model scales with operating leverage because centralized content, technology, and existing education infrastructure absorb growth without requiring a proportional increase in staff, rent, and selling expense.
The education model remains cash-generative because customers pay reliably and working capital does not reverse as TAL grows beyond the post-crackdown recovery phase.
TAL’s cash-rich balance sheet gives it time to invest through regulatory uncertainty, but the thesis requires capital allocation to remain disciplined rather than consuming the cash buffer in low-return expansion.
Bear case: what would count against it
Chinese regulators issue new rules that classify TAL’s main learning-service or learning-product offerings as restricted tutoring.
New Oriental, Gaotu, or local education providers start a sustained price war in TAL’s permitted learning categories.
TAL must reopen a large physical-center footprint or hire teachers and sales staff faster than revenue grows to sustain demand.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · TAL Education Group
No break has crossed TAL Education Group’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedForeign issuer material report (6-K).
TAL Education Group filed an SEC report on 2026-10-29: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedForeign issuer material report (6-K).
TAL Education Group filed an SEC report on 2026-07-30: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Chinese regulators issue new rules that classify TAL’s main learning-service or learning-product offerings as restricted tutoring.
- New Oriental, Gaotu, or local education providers start a sustained price war in TAL’s permitted learning categories.
- TAL must reopen a large physical-center footprint or hire teachers and sales staff faster than revenue grows to sustain demand.
- Regulators impose tighter limits on prepaid tuition or customer advances, weakening the cash cycle before revenue is recognized.
- Management deploys large amounts of cash into acquisitions, new offline locations, or hardware initiatives without evidence of attractive returns.
TAL news
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Financial statements
TAL income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
TAL: quick answers
- What is TAL's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 20.3M TAL shares were sold short, down 3.7% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.3 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. TAL short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded TAL?
- 1 trade in TAL has been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed TAL trade