TransAlta
TACNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $13.36 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $13.36–$13.65 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 763.7K Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Not yet confirmed The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
- $11.38–$15.65 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own TAC if wholesale prices or contract coverage weaken while leverage stays high, the equity will suffer.
TAC price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Sustained positive operating cash flow will be the primary driver of value: it permits debt service, capital expenditure for low-carbon projects, and avoids dilutive equity or fire sales even if GAAP net income remains volatile from mark-to-market items.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Operating_cash_flow: CAD 1,464,000,000 (FY2023) → CAD 796,000,000 (FY2024) → CAD 646,000,000 (FY2025): positive across all three years, showing the business still generates cash despite income swings. If OCF remains positive and reasonably stable owners get deleveraging and reinvestment without dilution; if OCF collapses the company will be forced into asset sales, equity raises or covenant breaches.
Watch: A sustained drop in wholesale power prices or material expirations of long-term contracts (PPAs) without replacement that permanently reduce cash receipts.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating_cash_flow: CAD 1,464,000,000 (FY2023) → CAD 796,000,000 (FY2024) → CAD 646,000,000 (FY2025): positive across all three years, showing the business.
Open source ↗High balance-sheet leverage constrains TransAlta’s strategic optionality: with liabilities large relative to equity, the company must use operating cash flow to service/roll debt or sell assets rather than freely fund growth.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Liabilities: CAD 7,195,999,999 (FY2025) on Assets CAD 8,661,000,000 (FY2025) with Equity CAD 1,465,000,000 — a high liabilities-to-equity position that limits balance-sheet flexibility. If leverage is reduced the firm can fund renewables and capture higher-margin contracted revenue; if leverage remains high or rises, management will be forced into defensive capital allocation (asset sales, dividend cuts, equity issuance).
Watch: An inability to refinance upcoming debt maturities at reasonable rates or a credit-rating downgrade that raises borrowing costs.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Liabilities: CAD 7,195,999,999 (FY2025) on Assets CAD 8,661,000,000 (FY2025) with Equity CAD 1,465,000,000 — a high liabilities-to-equity position that limits.
Open source ↗Reported net income will remain volatile and often misleading because non-cash items (impairments, fair-value/derivative remeasurements) currently drive large swings; operating cash flow and operating income are better causal gauges of the business.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Net_income swung from CAD 796,000,000 (FY2023) to CAD 239,000,000 (FY2024) to a loss of CAD 158,000,000 (FY2025) while operating_cash_flow stayed positive each year — evidence of material non-cash or mark-to-market effects. Investors focusing on GAAP EPS will misread operating performance; consistent positive OCF despite GAAP losses supports the business value but continued headline losses can damage access to capital and share price.
Watch: Persistent derivative losses or recurring impairments tied to lower forward power prices or regulatory changes that indicate permanent impairment rather than one-off volatility.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Net_income swung from CAD 796,000,000 (FY2023) to CAD 239,000,000 (FY2024) to a loss of CAD 158,000,000 (FY2025) while operating_cash_flow stayed.
Open source ↗Operating income is highly sensitive to wholesale power prices and dispatch patterns; absence of offsetting contracted revenue will keep operating margins depressed.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Operating_income declined from CAD 1,089,000,000 (FY2023) to CAD 585,000,000 (FY2024) to CAD 140,000,000 (FY2025), tracking revenue and indicating large sensitivity to market conditions or portfolio changes. If market prices recover or contract coverage increases, operating income can rebound materially and restore profitability; if not, margins and free cash generation will stay below historical peaks.
Watch: A permanent structural decline in wholesale prices due to oversupply, policy changes, or competing low-cost generation that prevents price recovery.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating_income declined from CAD 1,089,000,000 (FY2023) to CAD 585,000,000 (FY2024) to CAD 140,000,000 (FY2025), tracking revenue and indicating large sensitivity.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Sustained positive operating cash flow will be the primary driver of value: it permits debt service, capital expenditure for low-carbon projects, and avoids dilutive equity or fire sales even if GAAP net income remains volatile from mark-to-market items. If OCF remains positive and reasonably stable owners get deleveraging and reinvestment without dilution; if OCF collapses the company will be forced into asset sales, equity raises or covenant breaches.
High balance-sheet leverage constrains TransAlta’s strategic optionality: with liabilities large relative to equity, the company must use operating cash flow to service/roll debt or sell assets rather than freely fund growth. If leverage is reduced the firm can fund renewables and capture higher-margin contracted revenue; if leverage remains high or rises, management will be forced into defensive capital allocation (asset sales, dividend cuts, equity issuance).
Reported net income will remain volatile and often misleading because non-cash items (impairments, fair-value/derivative remeasurements) currently drive large swings; operating cash flow and operating income are better causal gauges of the business. Investors focusing on GAAP EPS will misread operating performance; consistent positive OCF despite GAAP losses supports the business value but continued headline losses can damage access to capital and share price.
Operating income is highly sensitive to wholesale power prices and dispatch patterns; absence of offsetting contracted revenue will keep operating margins depressed. If market prices recover or contract coverage increases, operating income can rebound materially and restore profitability; if not, margins and free cash generation will stay below historical peaks.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
wholesale prices or contract coverage weaken while leverage stays high, the equity will suffer.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Transalta
Where the evidence on Transalta stands: Strengthening on the latest evidence (Oct 13, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 4 strengthening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Sustained positive operating cash flow will be the primary driver of value: it permits debt service, capital expenditure for low-carbon projects, and avoids dilutive equity or fire sales even if GAAP net income remains volatile from mark-to-market items.
High balance-sheet leverage constrains TransAlta’s strategic optionality: with liabilities large relative to equity, the company must use operating cash flow to service/roll debt or sell assets rather than freely fund growth.
Reported net income will remain volatile and often misleading because non-cash items (impairments, fair-value/derivative remeasurements) currently drive large swings; operating cash flow and operating income are better causal gauges of the business.
Operating income is highly sensitive to wholesale power prices and dispatch patterns; absence of offsetting contracted revenue will keep operating margins depressed.
Bear case: what would count against it
A sustained drop in wholesale power prices or material expirations of long-term contracts (PPAs) without replacement that permanently reduce cash receipts.
An inability to refinance upcoming debt maturities at reasonable rates or a credit-rating downgrade that raises borrowing costs.
Persistent derivative losses or recurring impairments tied to lower forward power prices or regulatory changes that indicate permanent impairment rather than one-off volatility.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Transalta’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Transalta, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Transalta.
- Revenue decline
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 8,727 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 37% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedForeign issuer material report (6-K).
Transalta filed an SEC report on 2026-10-06: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedForeign issuer material report (6-K).
Transalta filed an SEC report on 2026-09-14: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedForeign issuer material report (6-K).
Transalta filed an SEC report on 2026-07-31: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- A sustained drop in wholesale power prices or material expirations of long-term contracts (PPAs) without replacement that permanently reduce cash receipts.
- An inability to refinance upcoming debt maturities at reasonable rates or a credit-rating downgrade that raises borrowing costs.
- Persistent derivative losses or recurring impairments tied to lower forward power prices or regulatory changes that indicate permanent impairment rather than one-off volatility.
- A permanent structural decline in wholesale prices due to oversupply, policy changes, or competing low-cost generation that prevents price recovery.
TAC news
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Financial statements
TAC income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
TAC: quick answers
- What is TAC's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 14.1M TAC shares were sold short, down 7.1% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 11 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. TAC short interest history
- Which well-known investors own TAC?
- 2 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported TAC shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Oaktree Capital Management (Howard Marks), 0.6%; Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios
TAC in well-known investors’ portfolios
2 of 37 funds reported TAC shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Howard MarksOaktree Capital Management | 0.58% | $41.5M | −53.2% | Q2 2026 |
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.00% | $197K | −76.3% | Q2 2026 |