Seagate Technology Holdings
STXNASDAQUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $501.62 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $533.14–$568.89 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 7.6M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Jan 26 projected Projected for 2027-01-26 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $228.61–$1,145.00 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own STX if Seagate converts its engineering, manufacturing scale and long customer relationships into low-cost, mass-capacity HDD supply for hyperscalers and enterprises, turning data growth into durable revenue, strong margins and cash that can be returned to.
STX price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Sustained hyperscaler/CSP demand for mass-capacity, cold/nearline storage (driven by AI, longer retention and replication) will continue to convert into top-line growth for Seagate.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Revenue grew from $9,097,000,000 (FY2025) to $12,195,000,000 (FY2026). If true, Seagate can grow revenue while leveraging fixed costs; if false, revenue growth stalls and HDD pricing compresses.
Watch: Hyperscalers accelerate migration of large portions of their estates to all-flash/object-store architectures that materially reduce exabyte demand for HDDs.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Revenue grew from $9,097,000,000 (FY2025) to $12,195,000,000 (FY2026).
Open source ↗Seagate's vertical integration, engineering roadmap and product mix (high-capacity nearline drives and systems) will sustain materially higher gross and operating margins than legacy HDD commodity levels.StrengtheningMateriality: High
Operating income rose from $1,890,000,000 (FY2025) to $4,094,000,000 (FY2026), reflecting substantial margin expansion. Higher, durable margins convert revenue into operating income and free cash flow; if margins revert, cash and valuation upside evaporates even if revenue holds.
Watch: Commodity pricing pressure or aggressive price competition from Western Digital or alternative suppliers erodes ASPs.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating income rose from $1,890,000,000 (FY2025) to $4,094,000,000 (FY2026), reflecting substantial margin expansion.
Open source ↗The recent step-up in operating cash flow provides the cash generation needed to fund share repurchases and dividends, driving EPS accretion even without high organic growth.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
Operating cash flow increased from $1,083,000,000 (FY2025) to $3,674,000,000 (FY2026). Reliable cash conversion funds capital return programs that compound per-share value; if cash weakens, EPS gains from buybacks become unsustainable.
Watch: Management reallocates cash to large strategic M&A or elevated capex that materially reduces buybacks/dividends.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
Operating cash flow increased from $1,083,000,000 (FY2025) to $3,674,000,000 (FY2026).
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Sustained hyperscaler/CSP demand for mass-capacity, cold/nearline storage (driven by AI, longer retention and replication) will continue to convert into top-line growth for Seagate. If true, Seagate can grow revenue while leveraging fixed costs; if false, revenue growth stalls and HDD pricing compresses.
Seagate's vertical integration, engineering roadmap and product mix (high-capacity nearline drives and systems) will sustain materially higher gross and operating margins than legacy HDD commodity levels. Higher, durable margins convert revenue into operating income and free cash flow; if margins revert, cash and valuation upside evaporates even if revenue holds.
The recent step-up in operating cash flow provides the cash generation needed to fund share repurchases and dividends, driving EPS accretion even without high organic growth. Reliable cash conversion funds capital return programs that compound per-share value; if cash weakens, EPS gains from buybacks become unsustainable.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
Seagate converts its engineering, manufacturing scale and long customer relationships into low-cost, mass-capacity HDD supply for hyperscalers and enterprises, turning data growth into durable revenue, strong margins and cash that can be returned to.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Seagate Technology Holdings
Where the evidence on Seagate Technology Holdings stands: Strengthening on the latest evidence (Nov 10, 2026). Of its 3 thesis points, 3 strengthening.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Sustained hyperscaler/CSP demand for mass-capacity, cold/nearline storage (driven by AI, longer retention and replication) will continue to convert into top-line growth for Seagate.
Seagate's vertical integration, engineering roadmap and product mix (high-capacity nearline drives and systems) will sustain materially higher gross and operating margins than legacy HDD commodity levels.
The recent step-up in operating cash flow provides the cash generation needed to fund share repurchases and dividends, driving EPS accretion even without high organic growth.
Bear case: what would count against it
Hyperscalers accelerate migration of large portions of their estates to all-flash/object-store architectures that materially reduce exabyte demand for HDDs.
Commodity pricing pressure or aggressive price competition from Western Digital or alternative suppliers erodes ASPs.
Management reallocates cash to large strategic M&A or elevated capex that materially reduces buybacks/dividends.
Thesis-Break Engine
What has broken in Seagate Technology Holdings’s thesis
Each break OptimistFi flagged on Seagate Technology Holdings, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Seagate Technology Holdings.
- Insider-selling clustercondition set before this filing
Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 9,137 times before. Those stocks beat comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 30% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.
MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Seagate Technology Holdings filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-27: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedUnregistered sale of equity securities.
Seagate Technology Holdings filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-09: Unregistered sale of equity securities. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Seagate Technology Holdings filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-04: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Hyperscalers accelerate migration of large portions of their estates to all-flash/object-store architectures that materially reduce exabyte demand for HDDs.
- Commodity pricing pressure or aggressive price competition from Western Digital or alternative suppliers erodes ASPs.
- Management reallocates cash to large strategic M&A or elevated capex that materially reduces buybacks/dividends.
STX news
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Financial statements
STX income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
STX: quick answers
- When does Seagate Technology Holdings (STX) report earnings next?
- Seagate Technology Holdings's next results are projected for January 26, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 27, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is STX's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 8.4M STX shares were sold short, 3.68% of its shares outstanding, up 7.4% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 1.4 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. STX short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded STX?
- Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 4 trades in STX by 3 filers: 1 purchase and 3 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed STX trade
- Which well-known investors own STX?
- 7 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported STX shares in their latest 13F filings. By share of the fund's portfolio: Lone Pine Capital (Stephen Mandel), 5.9%; Duquesne Family Office (Stanley Druckenmiller), 2.3%; Tiger Global Management (Chase Coleman), 1.1%. Fund portfolios
STX in well-known investors’ portfolios
7 of 37 funds reported STX shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.
| Fund | Of its portfolio | Value | Change | Quarter |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen MandelLone Pine Capital | 5.9% | $965M | New | Q2 2026 |
| Stanley DruckenmillerDuquesne Family Office | 2.3% | $118M | +140.6% | Q2 2026 |
| Chase ColemanTiger Global Management | 1.1% | $275M | New | Q2 2026 |
| Whale Rock Capital | 1.1% | $143M | New | Q2 2026 |
| Ray DalioBridgewater Associates | 0.79% | $193M | −39.3% | Q2 2026 |
| Dan SundheimD1 Capital Partners | 0.08% | $29.1M | New | Q2 2026 |
| Maverick Capital | 0.01% | $1.2M | New | Q2 2026 |