Starwood Property Trust
STWDNYSEUSD
- Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
- Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
- Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
- $11.89 Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
- $11.61–$12.00 Regular-session low and high so far today.
- 8.1M Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
- Feb 24 projected Projected for 2027-02-24 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
- $11.61–$18.66 52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.
Understand the Business
Why the Stock Moved
Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.
The core investment thesis
Own STWD if its real estate credit platform can earn attractive spreads in a tighter lending market without letting commercial-property stress become permanent book-value loss.
STWD price history
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Investment thesis
What must happen next
Bank retrenchment and borrower need for flexible commercial real estate capital continue to give STWD reinvestment opportunities at acceptable risk-adjusted spreads, rather than forcing it to chase weaker volume.HoldingMateriality: High
GAAP annual revenue was $1.844 billion in FY2025, still materially above $1.170 billion in FY2021 despite a smaller asset base. If this holds, STWD can replenish earnings power as loans repay; if it breaks, revenue and portfolio quality can both deteriorate.
Watch: Regional banks and life insurers re-enter CRE lending aggressively and compress spreads before STWD can deploy capital attractively.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual revenue was $1.844 billion in FY2025, still materially above $1.170 billion in FY2021 despite a smaller asset base.
Open source ↗STWD’s collateral underwriting and asset management prevent commercial real estate stress from turning into permanent book-value destruction despite balance-sheet leverage.StrengtheningMateriality: High
GAAP stockholders’ equity increased from $6.251 billion at FY2023 year-end to $6.796 billion at FY2025 year-end. Equity preservation is the core downside control for a levered mortgage REIT; if it fails, dividend capacity and valuation support can reset lower.
Watch: A wave of office or other CRE borrower defaults forces collateral marks below loan basis before refinancing markets reopen.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP stockholders’ equity increased from $6.251 billion at FY2023 year-end to $6.796 billion at FY2025 year-end.
Open source ↗The platform retains enough liquidity and financing flexibility to hold or work out assets through stress rather than becoming a forced seller.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP cash and cash equivalents increased from $194.660 million at FY2023 year-end to $499.480 million at FY2025 year-end. Funding access determines whether credit issues are manageable workouts or become value-destructive liquidations.
Watch: Repo or warehouse lenders raise haircuts, shorten advance rates, or refuse renewals on CRE collateral.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP cash and cash equivalents increased from $194.660 million at FY2023 year-end to $499.480 million at FY2025 year-end.
Open source ↗The portfolio’s reported earnings remain backed by cash collection from borrowers and investments, not mainly by non-cash extensions, marks, or accounting timing.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium
GAAP annual operating cash flow improved from negative $989.975 million in FY2021 to positive $977.852 million in FY2025. Cash conversion supports balance-sheet flexibility and income distributions; weak cash collection would expose reported earnings as lower quality.
Watch: Borrowers increasingly require payment-in-kind interest, maturity extensions, or forbearance instead of current cash payments.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP annual operating cash flow improved from negative $989.975 million in FY2021 to positive $977.852 million in FY2025.
Open source ↗Management can recycle a smaller balance sheet into assets that sustain per-share earnings, so value creation does not require renewed asset growth.HoldingMateriality: Medium
GAAP diluted EPS was $1.07 in FY2023, $1.10 in FY2024, and $1.15 in FY2025, showing recent stability after the FY2022 spike. If true, STWD can compound through selectivity; if false, shrinking or flat assets will pressure EPS and dividend coverage.
Watch: Repayments of high-yielding loans are reinvested into lower-spread assets because private capital floods the CRE lending market.
Supporting sources
Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.
GAAP diluted EPS was $1.07 in FY2023, $1.10 in FY2024, and $1.15 in FY2025, showing recent stability after the FY2022.
Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence
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Original research
Bank retrenchment and borrower need for flexible commercial real estate capital continue to give STWD reinvestment opportunities at acceptable risk-adjusted spreads, rather than forcing it to chase weaker volume. If this holds, STWD can replenish earnings power as loans repay; if it breaks, revenue and portfolio quality can both deteriorate.
STWD’s collateral underwriting and asset management prevent commercial real estate stress from turning into permanent book-value destruction despite balance-sheet leverage. Equity preservation is the core downside control for a levered mortgage REIT; if it fails, dividend capacity and valuation support can reset lower.
The platform retains enough liquidity and financing flexibility to hold or work out assets through stress rather than becoming a forced seller. Funding access determines whether credit issues are manageable workouts or become value-destructive liquidations.
The portfolio’s reported earnings remain backed by cash collection from borrowers and investments, not mainly by non-cash extensions, marks, or accounting timing. Cash conversion supports balance-sheet flexibility and income distributions; weak cash collection would expose reported earnings as lower quality.
Management can recycle a smaller balance sheet into assets that sustain per-share earnings, so value creation does not require renewed asset growth. If true, STWD can compound through selectivity; if false, shrinking or flat assets will pressure EPS and dividend coverage.
All standing thesis claims
Original report summary
its real estate credit platform can earn attractive spreads in a tighter lending market without letting commercial-property stress become permanent book-value loss.
Bull case and bear case
Bull case and bear case for Starwood Property Trust
Where the evidence on Starwood Property Trust stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 21, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 2 holding.
Bull case: what the evidence supports
Bank retrenchment and borrower need for flexible commercial real estate capital continue to give STWD reinvestment opportunities at acceptable risk-adjusted spreads, rather than forcing it to chase weaker volume.
STWD’s collateral underwriting and asset management prevent commercial real estate stress from turning into permanent book-value destruction despite balance-sheet leverage.
The platform retains enough liquidity and financing flexibility to hold or work out assets through stress rather than becoming a forced seller.
The portfolio’s reported earnings remain backed by cash collection from borrowers and investments, not mainly by non-cash extensions, marks, or accounting timing.
Management can recycle a smaller balance sheet into assets that sustain per-share earnings, so value creation does not require renewed asset growth.
Bear case: what would count against it
Regional banks and life insurers re-enter CRE lending aggressively and compress spreads before STWD can deploy capital attractively.
A wave of office or other CRE borrower defaults forces collateral marks below loan basis before refinancing markets reopen.
Repo or warehouse lenders raise haircuts, shorten advance rates, or refuse renewals on CRE collateral.
Thesis-Break Engine
Thesis-break watch · Starwood Property Trust
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MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT
The numbers behind the thesis
What Changed
- MixedDirector or principal officer change.
Starwood Property Trust filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-13: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedReported results of operations (earnings release).
Starwood Property Trust filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-06: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
- MixedEntered a material definitive agreement.
Starwood Property Trust filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-10: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.
Risks / falsifiers
What could break the thesis
- Regional banks and life insurers re-enter CRE lending aggressively and compress spreads before STWD can deploy capital attractively.
- A wave of office or other CRE borrower defaults forces collateral marks below loan basis before refinancing markets reopen.
- Repo or warehouse lenders raise haircuts, shorten advance rates, or refuse renewals on CRE collateral.
- Borrowers increasingly require payment-in-kind interest, maturity extensions, or forbearance instead of current cash payments.
- Repayments of high-yielding loans are reinvested into lower-spread assets because private capital floods the CRE lending market.
STWD news
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Financial statements
STWD income statement
Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.
STWD: quick answers
- When does Starwood Property Trust (STWD) report earnings next?
- Starwood Property Trust's next results are projected for February 24, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 6, 2026. Earnings calendar
- What is STWD's short interest?
- As of October 30, 2026, 20.2M STWD shares were sold short, 5.54% of its shares outstanding, down 9.6% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.5 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. STWD short interest history
- Have members of Congress traded STWD?
- 4 trades in STWD have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed STWD trade