StoneCo

STNENASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$7.85
+$0.18 (+2.35%)Today 1M −38.44%
After hours$7.88+0.32%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$7.67
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$7.79–$8.06
Regular-session low and high so far today.
5.1M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Not yet confirmed
The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
$7.06–$18.19
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own STNE if StoneCo is a bet that its Brazilian merchant ecosystem can turn payments relationships into durable, risk-adjusted financial-services profits rather than another commoditized acquiring business.

STNE price history

Latest price$7.85Today+$0.18 (+2.35%)
STNE -36.05%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

4 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • StoneCo’s local service-led merchant platform must remain differentiated enough for Brazilian SMBs to keep choosing it over bank acquirers, PagSeguro/PagBank, Mercado Pago, Nubank and pure Pix acceptance; otherwise payment economics commoditize before scale can matter.HoldingMateriality: High

    FY2023 IFRS annual net_income was BRL 1.600 billion, showing the model can produce accounting profit after prior losses. If merchant differentiation holds, StoneCo can monetize the relationship beyond basic acquiring; if it breaks, the business becomes a lower-margin processor with limited pricing power.

    Watch: PagSeguro/PagBank or Mercado Pago matching StoneCo’s service proposition while pricing acquiring and banking more aggressively for SMBs.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    FY2023 IFRS annual net_income was BRL 1.600 billion, showing the model can produce accounting profit after prior losses.

    Open source ↗
  • Merchant credit, prepayment and other financial-services products should deepen StoneCo’s relationship only if underwriting and funding discipline keep working capital from becoming a cash drain; a renewed credit-cycle mistake would break the ecosystem economics.WeakeningMateriality: High

    IFRS annual operating_cash_flow was positive in FY2021 at BRL 3.607 billion, FY2022 at BRL 1.684 billion and FY2023 at BRL 1.648 billion. This determines whether financial services are a profit pool attached to payments or a recurring source of losses and liquidity pressure.

    Watch: Brazilian SMB credit losses rising faster than pricing or collateral coverage in StoneCo’s merchant credit and prepayment products.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    IFRS annual operating_cash_flow was positive in FY2021 at BRL 3.607 billion, FY2022 at BRL 1.684 billion and FY2023 at BRL.

    Open source ↗
  • StoneCo’s ability to fund settlement, receivables prepayment, merchant banking balances and credit through volatile Brazilian cycles is a prerequisite to competing; if funding becomes confidence-sensitive or structurally more expensive, rivals with larger deposit bases can erode its offer.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    Cash was BRL 5.228 billion at FY2024 year-end, up from BRL 2.176 billion at FY2023 year-end. Liquidity strength lets StoneCo stay in the market when merchants need financing; liquidity stress would force retreat or margin-sacrificing funding.

    Watch: A Brazilian funding shock that raises StoneCo’s cost of capital relative to bank-owned acquirers and deposit-rich fintechs.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Cash was BRL 5.228 billion at FY2024 year-end, up from BRL 2.176 billion at FY2023 year-end.

    Open source ↗
  • The payments base must support higher-value software, banking and financial-services cross-sell without proportional servicing, technology and risk costs; if cross-sell adds complexity rather than wallet share, per-share earnings will remain volatile.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    FY2023 IFRS annual eps_diluted was BRL 4.74, recovering from a FY2022 loss of BRL 1.67 per diluted share. This is the route from a merchant relationship to shareholder compounding; without operating leverage, growth may not create per-share value.

    Watch: Vertical software providers or embedded-payment platforms capturing merchant workflow before StoneCo can attach its own software and banking products.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    FY2023 IFRS annual eps_diluted was BRL 4.74, recovering from a FY2022 loss of BRL 1.67 per diluted share.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

Loading the original research archive…

Original research

StoneCo’s local service-led merchant platform must remain differentiated enough for Brazilian SMBs to keep choosing it over bank acquirers, PagSeguro/PagBank, Mercado Pago, Nubank and pure Pix acceptance; otherwise payment economics commoditize before scale can matter. If merchant differentiation holds, StoneCo can monetize the relationship beyond basic acquiring; if it breaks, the business becomes a lower-margin processor with limited pricing power.

Merchant credit, prepayment and other financial-services products should deepen StoneCo’s relationship only if underwriting and funding discipline keep working capital from becoming a cash drain; a renewed credit-cycle mistake would break the ecosystem economics. This determines whether financial services are a profit pool attached to payments or a recurring source of losses and liquidity pressure.

StoneCo’s ability to fund settlement, receivables prepayment, merchant banking balances and credit through volatile Brazilian cycles is a prerequisite to competing; if funding becomes confidence-sensitive or structurally more expensive, rivals with larger deposit bases can erode its offer. Liquidity strength lets StoneCo stay in the market when merchants need financing; liquidity stress would force retreat or margin-sacrificing funding.

The payments base must support higher-value software, banking and financial-services cross-sell without proportional servicing, technology and risk costs; if cross-sell adds complexity rather than wallet share, per-share earnings will remain volatile. This is the route from a merchant relationship to shareholder compounding; without operating leverage, growth may not create per-share value.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

StoneCo is a bet that its Brazilian merchant ecosystem can turn payments relationships into durable, risk-adjusted financial-services profits rather than another commoditized acquiring business.

Evidence assessed Oct 26, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for StoneCo

Where the evidence on StoneCo disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Oct 26, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 3 holding and 1 weakening.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • StoneCo’s local service-led merchant platform must remain differentiated enough for Brazilian SMBs to keep choosing it over bank acquirers, PagSeguro/PagBank, Mercado Pago, Nubank and pure Pix acceptance; otherwise payment economics commoditize before scale can matter.

    sec.gov ↗

  • StoneCo’s ability to fund settlement, receivables prepayment, merchant banking balances and credit through volatile Brazilian cycles is a prerequisite to competing; if funding becomes confidence-sensitive or structurally more expensive, rivals with larger deposit bases can erode its offer.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The payments base must support higher-value software, banking and financial-services cross-sell without proportional servicing, technology and risk costs; if cross-sell adds complexity rather than wallet share, per-share earnings will remain volatile.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what the evidence questions

  • Merchant credit, prepayment and other financial-services products should deepen StoneCo’s relationship only if underwriting and funding discipline keep working capital from becoming a cash drain; a renewed credit-cycle mistake would break the ecosystem economics.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · StoneCo

No break has crossed StoneCo’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Foreign issuer material report (6-K).

    StoneCo filed an SEC report on 2026-08-13: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Foreign issuer material report (6-K).

    StoneCo filed an SEC report on 2026-05-14: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Foreign issuer material report (6-K).

    StoneCo filed an SEC report on 2026-04-23: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • PagSeguro/PagBank or Mercado Pago matching StoneCo’s service proposition while pricing acquiring and banking more aggressively for SMBs.
  • Brazilian SMB credit losses rising faster than pricing or collateral coverage in StoneCo’s merchant credit and prepayment products.
  • A Brazilian funding shock that raises StoneCo’s cost of capital relative to bank-owned acquirers and deposit-rich fintechs.
  • Vertical software providers or embedded-payment platforms capturing merchant workflow before StoneCo can attach its own software and banking products.

STNE news

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Financial statements

STNE income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

STNE: quick answers

What is STNE's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 15.2M STNE shares were sold short, up 66.2% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 1.9 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. STNE short interest history
Which well-known investors own STNE?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported STNE shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Bridgewater Associates (Ray Dalio), 0.0%. Fund portfolios

STNE in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported STNE shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Ray DalioBridgewater Associates0.00%$214KNewQ2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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