The Oncology Institute

STLNNASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$4.20
−$0.14 (−3.23%)Today 1M −34.54%
After hours$4.200.00%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$4.34
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$4.16–$4.71
Regular-session low and high so far today.
3.0M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Jan 11 projected
Projected for 2027-01-11 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$2.32–$7.13
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own STLN if Starling Oncology builds value by scaling a physician-led oncology clinic network (TOI PCs) to capture referral volume and payor contracts, converting that scale into operating leverage and cash flow — provided reimbursement and recruiting.

STLN price history

Latest price$4.20Today−$0.14 (-3.23%)
STLN -38.33%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • The clinic network's scale and physician capacity will sustain above-industry revenue growth by capturing referrals and negotiated payor volume.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    Revenue increased 147% from $203,003,000 (2021) to $502,729,000 (2025), showing sustained top-line expansion. If true, revenue growth continues to fund margin improvement and reduce the probability of dilutive financing; if false, the growth engine stalls and financing/dilution risk rises.

    Watch: Major payor reimbursement cuts or termination of a large payor contracting relationship that reduces realized price per visit.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Revenue increased 147% from $203,003,000 (2021) to $502,729,000 (2025), showing sustained top-line expansion.

    Open source ↗
  • Operational leverage from higher clinic utilization and fixed-cost absorption will convert revenue growth into operating-profit improvement and eventual operating profitability.HoldingMateriality: High

    Operating loss narrowed from -$81,951,000 (2022) to -$36,083,000 (2025), showing progress toward profitability. Margins moving positive on scale would validate the business as an enduring cash-generative platform; failure means persistent losses despite growth.

    Watch: SG&A or clinic integration costs rise unexpectedly (e.g., failed M&A synergies) that re-expand operating losses.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Operating loss narrowed from -$81,951,000 (2022) to -$36,083,000 (2025), showing progress toward profitability.

    Open source ↗
  • Negative or shrinking stockholders' equity and rising liabilities create a meaningful financing/dilution risk that can force equity raises unless operating cash flow turns positive.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Stockholders' equity fell from $123,175,000 (2022) → $57,025,000 (2023) → $3,589,000 (2024) → -$15,720,000 (2025), showing rapid balance-sheet deterioration. A forced equity raise at weak terms would materially dilute shareholders and could wipe out the expected upside from an operating recovery.

    Watch: Access to capital markets or a strategic investor willing to provide non-dilutive or low-dilution financing.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Stockholders' equity fell from $123,175,000 (2022) → $57,025,000 (2023) → $3,589,000 (2024) → -$15,720,000 (2025), showing rapid balance-sheet deterioration.

    Open source ↗
  • Improving operating cash flow indicates a credible path to positive free cash flow if revenue growth continues and capex/working-capital needs remain controlled.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    Operating cash flow improved from -$61,756,000 (2022) to -$24,587,000 (2025), moving steadily toward break-even. Positive free cash flow would remove survival financing risk and convert growth into equity value accretion; failure leaves the firm dependent on capital markets.

    Watch: Large, unexpected capex or working-capital build (e.g., receivables growth) that offsets improvements in operating cash flow.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Operating cash flow improved from -$61,756,000 (2022) to -$24,587,000 (2025), moving steadily toward break-even.

    Open source ↗
  • The company's on-staff oncologist base and total employees provide the medical capacity to support same-clinic volume growth and new-market expansion.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    As of December 31, 2025 the company and TOI PCs collectively had approximately 641 employees, including ~116 oncologists, which underpins clinic capacity. Sustained recruitment and retention of oncologists is necessary for volume growth; failure reduces throughput and referral attractiveness.

    Watch: Oncologist labor shortages or inability to recruit/retain clinicians leading to constrained capacity.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    As of December 31, 2025 the company and TOI PCs collectively had approximately 641 employees, including ~116 oncologists, which underpins.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

Loading the original research archive…

Original research

The clinic network's scale and physician capacity will sustain above-industry revenue growth by capturing referrals and negotiated payor volume. If true, revenue growth continues to fund margin improvement and reduce the probability of dilutive financing; if false, the growth engine stalls and financing/dilution risk rises.

Operational leverage from higher clinic utilization and fixed-cost absorption will convert revenue growth into operating-profit improvement and eventual operating profitability. Margins moving positive on scale would validate the business as an enduring cash-generative platform; failure means persistent losses despite growth.

Negative or shrinking stockholders' equity and rising liabilities create a meaningful financing/dilution risk that can force equity raises unless operating cash flow turns positive. A forced equity raise at weak terms would materially dilute shareholders and could wipe out the expected upside from an operating recovery.

Improving operating cash flow indicates a credible path to positive free cash flow if revenue growth continues and capex/working-capital needs remain controlled. Positive free cash flow would remove survival financing risk and convert growth into equity value accretion; failure leaves the firm dependent on capital markets.

The company's on-staff oncologist base and total employees provide the medical capacity to support same-clinic volume growth and new-market expansion. Sustained recruitment and retention of oncologists is necessary for volume growth; failure reduces throughput and referral attractiveness.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

Starling Oncology builds value by scaling a physician-led oncology clinic network (TOI PCs) to capture referral volume and payor contracts, converting that scale into operating leverage and cash flow — provided reimbursement and recruiting.

Evidence assessed Nov 10, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Starling Oncology

Where the evidence on Starling Oncology stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Nov 10, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 2 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • The clinic network's scale and physician capacity will sustain above-industry revenue growth by capturing referrals and negotiated payor volume.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Operational leverage from higher clinic utilization and fixed-cost absorption will convert revenue growth into operating-profit improvement and eventual operating profitability.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Negative or shrinking stockholders' equity and rising liabilities create a meaningful financing/dilution risk that can force equity raises unless operating cash flow turns positive.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Improving operating cash flow indicates a credible path to positive free cash flow if revenue growth continues and capex/working-capital needs remain controlled.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The company's on-staff oncologist base and total employees provide the medical capacity to support same-clinic volume growth and new-market expansion.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Major payor reimbursement cuts or termination of a large payor contracting relationship that reduces realized price per visit.

    sec.gov ↗

  • SG&A or clinic integration costs rise unexpectedly (e.g., failed M&A synergies) that re-expand operating losses.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Access to capital markets or a strategic investor willing to provide non-dilutive or low-dilution financing.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · Starling Oncology

12 mo agonow
Trailing daily price. No thesis break has crossed here, so there is no break base rate to project.

OptimistFi is watching Starling Oncology. No break-condition checks are on record yet — they accumulate as new filings are checked.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Starling Oncology filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-11-05: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Director or principal officer change.

    Starling Oncology filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-09-02: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Entered a material definitive agreement.

    Starling Oncology filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-08-21: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Major payor reimbursement cuts or termination of a large payor contracting relationship that reduces realized price per visit.
  • SG&A or clinic integration costs rise unexpectedly (e.g., failed M&A synergies) that re-expand operating losses.
  • Access to capital markets or a strategic investor willing to provide non-dilutive or low-dilution financing.
  • Large, unexpected capex or working-capital build (e.g., receivables growth) that offsets improvements in operating cash flow.
  • Oncologist labor shortages or inability to recruit/retain clinicians leading to constrained capacity.

STLN news

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Financial statements

STLN income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

STLN: quick answers

When does Starling Oncology (STLN) report earnings next?
Starling Oncology's next results are projected for January 11, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on November 5, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is STLN's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 6.8M STLN shares were sold short, up 4.7% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 5.4 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. STLN short interest history
Have members of Congress traded STLN?
Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 12 trades in STLN by 1 filer: 0 purchases and 12 sales. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed STLN trade
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