SoFi Technologies

SOFINASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$16.27
−$0.10 (−0.61%)Today 1M +3.61%
After hours$16.16−0.68%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$16.37
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$16.25–$16.83
Regular-session low and high so far today.
39.5M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Jan 29 projected
Projected for 2027-01-29 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$13.86–$32.73
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own SOFI if you believe its finance-services growth is becoming scalable earnings, not just balance-sheet expansion funded by cash outflows.

SOFI price history

Latest price$16.27Today−$0.10 (-0.61%)
SOFI +6.37%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

Loading recent earnings…

Investment thesis

What must happen next

6 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Revenue growth remains strong enough to support the ownership case, with future annual revenue growth staying above 20% without a material profitability setback.HoldingMateriality: High

    annual revenue growth stays above 20% while net income remains positive. This is a load-bearing condition for SOFI Technologies's investment case.

    Watch: revenue growth falls below 15% or revenue grows only while net income turns negative.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    annual revenue growth stays above 20% while net income remains positive.

    Open source ↗
  • Growth is not being bought through gross-margin erosion; gross profit continues to scale roughly in line with revenue.HoldingMateriality: High

    gross profit grows at least as fast as revenue or gross margin remains above 80%. This is a load-bearing condition for SOFI Technologies's investment case.

    Watch: gross margin falls below 78% for a full year or gross profit growth materially lags revenue growth.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    gross profit grows at least as fast as revenue or gross margin remains above 80%.

    Open source ↗
  • The 2024-2025 move into profitability proves durable, and net income begins growing again rather than flattening after the first profitable years.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    annual net income rises by double digits and remains positive. This is a load-bearing condition for SOFI Technologies's investment case.

    Watch: net income declines year over year again or SoFi reports an annual net loss.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    annual net income rises by double digits and remains positive.

    Open source ↗
  • Earnings growth accrues to common shareholders, with diluted EPS rising rather than remaining flat despite higher net income or balance-sheet growth.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    diluted EPS grows year over year and broadly tracks net income growth. This is a load-bearing condition for SOFI Technologies's investment case.

    Watch: net income rises but diluted EPS is flat or down, indicating dilution or weak per-share conversion.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    diluted EPS grows year over year and broadly tracks net income growth.

    Open source ↗
  • The balance sheet can support continued growth without weakening the capital base.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    equity grows at least as fast as liabilities or equity as a percentage of assets is stable to higher. This is a load-bearing condition for SOFI Technologies's investment case.

    Watch: liabilities grow materially faster than equity or equity as a percentage of assets falls below the prior-year level.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    equity grows at least as fast as liabilities or equity as a percentage of assets is stable to higher.

    Open source ↗
  • Negative operating cash flow is a temporary funding feature of growth, not a permanent drain; operating cash flow improves materially from the 2025 outflow.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    annual operating cash flow improves by at least $1 billion or moves toward breakeven. This is a load-bearing condition for SOFI Technologies's investment case.

    Watch: operating cash flow remains worse than negative $3 billion for another full year or deteriorates versus 2025.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    annual operating cash flow improves by at least $1 billion or moves toward breakeven.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

Loading the original research archive…

Original research

Revenue growth remains strong enough to support the ownership case, with future annual revenue growth staying above 20% without a material profitability setback. This is a load-bearing condition for SOFI Technologies's investment case.

Growth is not being bought through gross-margin erosion; gross profit continues to scale roughly in line with revenue. This is a load-bearing condition for SOFI Technologies's investment case.

The 2024-2025 move into profitability proves durable, and net income begins growing again rather than flattening after the first profitable years. This is a load-bearing condition for SOFI Technologies's investment case.

Earnings growth accrues to common shareholders, with diluted EPS rising rather than remaining flat despite higher net income or balance-sheet growth. This is a load-bearing condition for SOFI Technologies's investment case.

The balance sheet can support continued growth without weakening the capital base. This is a load-bearing condition for SOFI Technologies's investment case.

Negative operating cash flow is a temporary funding feature of growth, not a permanent drain; operating cash flow improves materially from the 2025 outflow. This is a load-bearing condition for SOFI Technologies's investment case.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

you believe its finance-services growth is becoming scalable earnings, not just balance-sheet expansion funded by cash outflows.

Evidence assessed Oct 13, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for SOFI Technologies

Where the evidence on SOFI Technologies stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 13, 2026). Of its 6 thesis points, 6 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Revenue growth remains strong enough to support the ownership case, with future annual revenue growth staying above 20% without a material profitability setback.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Growth is not being bought through gross-margin erosion; gross profit continues to scale roughly in line with revenue.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The 2024-2025 move into profitability proves durable, and net income begins growing again rather than flattening after the first profitable years.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Earnings growth accrues to common shareholders, with diluted EPS rising rather than remaining flat despite higher net income or balance-sheet growth.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The balance sheet can support continued growth without weakening the capital base.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Negative operating cash flow is a temporary funding feature of growth, not a permanent drain; operating cash flow improves materially from the 2025 outflow.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • revenue growth falls below 15% or revenue grows only while net income turns negative.

    sec.gov ↗

  • gross margin falls below 78% for a full year or gross profit growth materially lags revenue growth.

    sec.gov ↗

  • net income declines year over year again or SoFi reports an annual net loss.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · SOFI Technologies

12 mo agonow
Trailing daily price. No thesis break has crossed here, so there is no break base rate to project.

No break has crossed SOFI Technologies’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    SOFI Technologies filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-29: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    SOFI Technologies filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-04-29: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • revenue growth falls below 15% or revenue grows only while net income turns negative.
  • gross margin falls below 78% for a full year or gross profit growth materially lags revenue growth.
  • net income declines year over year again or SoFi reports an annual net loss.
  • net income rises but diluted EPS is flat or down, indicating dilution or weak per-share conversion.
  • liabilities grow materially faster than equity or equity as a percentage of assets falls below the prior-year level.
  • operating cash flow remains worse than negative $3 billion for another full year or deteriorates versus 2025.

SOFI news

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Financial statements

SOFI income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

SOFI: quick answers

When does SOFI Technologies (SOFI) report earnings next?
SOFI Technologies's next results are projected for January 29, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 27, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is SOFI's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 224M SOFI shares were sold short, 17.2% of its shares outstanding, up 1.8% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.7 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. SOFI short interest history
Have members of Congress traded SOFI?
6 trades in SOFI have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed SOFI trade
Which well-known investors own SOFI?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported SOFI shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: ARK Investment Management (Cathie Wood), 0.4%. Fund portfolios

SOFI in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported SOFI shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Cathie WoodARK Investment Management0.44%$67.1M−2.4%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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