Similarweb

SMWBNYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$8.08
+$0.26 (+3.32%)Today 1M −10.72%
After hours$7.92−1.98%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$7.82
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$7.81–$8.28
Regular-session low and high so far today.
412.6K
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Not yet confirmed
The company has not confirmed its next report date. Reported quarters are available in the chart’s Earnings view.
$2.22–$9.50
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own SMWB if its proprietary digital-intelligence data remains trusted enough to compound subscription revenue while the company proves that high gross margins can finally translate into durable GAAP profit and cash.

SMWB price history

Latest price$8.08Today+$0.26 (+3.32%)
SMWB -9.97%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

5 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • a licensed feed’s proprietary estimates of external digital activity remain differentiated enough that customers keep buying them instead of relying only on first-party analytics, free platform tools, or cheaper point solutions.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual revenue increased from $193.234 million in FY2022 to $218.019 million in FY2023, $249.913 million in FY2024, and $282.600 million in FY2025. If this holds, a licensed feed can keep compounding subscriptions; if it breaks, revenue growth becomes vulnerable to churn, discounting, and category commoditization.

    Watch: Google, Adobe, or other first-party analytics platforms bundle enough competitive and traffic intelligence that customers no longer need a separate a licensed feed subscription.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual revenue increased from $193.234 million in FY2022 to $218.019 million in FY2023, $249.913 million in FY2024, and $282.600.

    Open source ↗
  • The data-and-analytics platform has scalable delivery economics: once a licensed feed acquires, cleans, and models the data, incremental customer usage can be served at high gross margin.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    GAAP annual gross profit rose from $139.960 million in FY2022 to $224.798 million in FY2025. High gross margins create the economic room for sales, R&D, and eventual operating leverage; if data or compute costs rise structurally, the profit pool shrinks even if revenue grows.

    Watch: Key data suppliers raise prices or restrict access, forcing a licensed feed to pay more to maintain data quality.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual gross profit rose from $139.960 million in FY2022 to $224.798 million in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • a licensed feed must prove that growth is not being bought with permanently elevated sales, R&D, or data costs; the model only creates durable value if the differentiated data asset converts into GAAP operating leverage.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual operating loss improved materially from $87.856 million in FY2022 to $28.807 million in FY2023 and $9.664 million in FY2024. Revenue growth without operating leverage would cap equity value and keep the company dependent on investor patience rather than internally generated profits.

    Watch: a licensed feed must materially increase sales incentives or customer-success spend to defend renewals against Semrush, Sensor Tower, Adobe, or other analytics competitors.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating loss improved materially from $87.856 million in FY2022 to $28.807 million in FY2023 and $9.664 million in.

    Open source ↗
  • The subscription model can become self-funding if renewals, prepayments, and working-capital discipline keep cash generation positive while the company invests behind the product.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    GAAP annual operating cash flow improved from negative $46.065 million in FY2022 to negative $3.038 million in FY2023. Positive operating cash flow gives a licensed feed strategic runway; if cash generation reverses, shareholders face dilution, debt, or reduced product investment.

    Watch: Customers shift away from annual upfront subscriptions toward shorter contracts or slower payment terms.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    GAAP annual operating cash flow improved from negative $46.065 million in FY2022 to negative $3.038 million in FY2023.

    Open source ↗
  • a licensed feed has enough liquidity to keep investing, but the narrow equity cushion means management must avoid a return to heavy cash burn or debt-funded expansion.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    Cash was $72.421 million at FY2025 year-end, above $63.869 million at FY2024 year-end. Balance-sheet discipline protects per-share value; a cash-burning pivot or aggressive acquisition could transfer value from shareholders to creditors or new equity investors.

    Watch: Management pursues a large acquisition to buy growth or data assets, consuming cash before profitability is proven.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Cash was $72.421 million at FY2025 year-end, above $63.869 million at FY2024 year-end.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

a licensed feed’s proprietary estimates of external digital activity remain differentiated enough that customers keep buying them instead of relying only on first-party analytics, free platform tools, or cheaper point solutions. If this holds, a licensed feed can keep compounding subscriptions; if it breaks, revenue growth becomes vulnerable to churn, discounting, and category commoditization.

The data-and-analytics platform has scalable delivery economics: once a licensed feed acquires, cleans, and models the data, incremental customer usage can be served at high gross margin. High gross margins create the economic room for sales, R&D, and eventual operating leverage; if data or compute costs rise structurally, the profit pool shrinks even if revenue grows.

a licensed feed must prove that growth is not being bought with permanently elevated sales, R&D, or data costs; the model only creates durable value if the differentiated data asset converts into GAAP operating leverage. Revenue growth without operating leverage would cap equity value and keep the company dependent on investor patience rather than internally generated profits.

The subscription model can become self-funding if renewals, prepayments, and working-capital discipline keep cash generation positive while the company invests behind the product. Positive operating cash flow gives a licensed feed strategic runway; if cash generation reverses, shareholders face dilution, debt, or reduced product investment.

a licensed feed has enough liquidity to keep investing, but the narrow equity cushion means management must avoid a return to heavy cash burn or debt-funded expansion. Balance-sheet discipline protects per-share value; a cash-burning pivot or aggressive acquisition could transfer value from shareholders to creditors or new equity investors.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

its proprietary digital-intelligence data remains trusted enough to compound subscription revenue while the company proves that high gross margins can finally translate into durable GAAP profit and cash.

Evidence assessed Oct 28, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Similarweb

Where the evidence on Similarweb stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 28, 2026). Of its 5 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 2 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • a licensed feed’s proprietary estimates of external digital activity remain differentiated enough that customers keep buying them instead of relying only on first-party analytics, free platform tools, or cheaper point solutions.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The data-and-analytics platform has scalable delivery economics: once a licensed feed acquires, cleans, and models the data, incremental customer usage can be served at high gross margin.

    sec.gov ↗

  • a licensed feed must prove that growth is not being bought with permanently elevated sales, R&D, or data costs; the model only creates durable value if the differentiated data asset converts into GAAP operating leverage.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The subscription model can become self-funding if renewals, prepayments, and working-capital discipline keep cash generation positive while the company invests behind the product.

    sec.gov ↗

  • a licensed feed has enough liquidity to keep investing, but the narrow equity cushion means management must avoid a return to heavy cash burn or debt-funded expansion.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Google, Adobe, or other first-party analytics platforms bundle enough competitive and traffic intelligence that customers no longer need a separate a licensed feed subscription.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Key data suppliers raise prices or restrict access, forcing a licensed feed to pay more to maintain data quality.

    sec.gov ↗

  • a licensed feed must materially increase sales incentives or customer-success spend to defend renewals against Semrush, Sensor Tower, Adobe, or other analytics competitors.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

Thesis-break watch · Similarweb

12 mo agonow
Trailing daily price. No thesis break has crossed here, so there is no break base rate to project.

No break has crossed Similarweb’s thesis. Its break conditions are checked against every new filing as it lands.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against the market after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Foreign issuer material report (6-K).

    Similarweb filed an SEC report on 2026-10-08: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Foreign issuer material report (6-K).

    Similarweb filed an SEC report on 2026-09-24: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Foreign issuer material report (6-K).

    Similarweb filed an SEC report on 2026-08-12: Foreign issuer material report (6-K). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Google, Adobe, or other first-party analytics platforms bundle enough competitive and traffic intelligence that customers no longer need a separate a licensed feed subscription.
  • Key data suppliers raise prices or restrict access, forcing a licensed feed to pay more to maintain data quality.
  • a licensed feed must materially increase sales incentives or customer-success spend to defend renewals against Semrush, Sensor Tower, Adobe, or other analytics competitors.
  • Customers shift away from annual upfront subscriptions toward shorter contracts or slower payment terms.
  • Management pursues a large acquisition to buy growth or data assets, consuming cash before profitability is proven.

SMWB news

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Financial statements

SMWB income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

SMWB: quick answers

What is SMWB's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 595,426 SMWB shares were sold short, down 29.2% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 1.6 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. SMWB short interest history
Which well-known investors own SMWB?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported SMWB shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: ARK Investment Management (Cathie Wood), 0.0%. Fund portfolios

SMWB in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported SMWB shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Cathie WoodARK Investment Management0.03%$5.1M+137.1%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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