The Simply Good Foods Company

SMPLNASDAQUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$12.64
+$0.22 (+1.77%)Today 1M +22.00%
After hours$12.640.00%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$12.42
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$12.05–$12.71
Regular-session low and high so far today.
1.5M
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Jan 7 projected
Projected for 2027-01-07 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$9.38–$22.00
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own SMPL if it restores household penetration and recovers margins through targeted marketing, SKU rationalization and cost productivity.

SMPL price history

Latest price$12.64Today+$0.22 (+1.77%)
SMPL +23.62%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

3 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Restoring household penetration and retailer shelf velocity for Atkins and OWYN (plus continued Quest growth) is the causal lever that will reverse the FY2026 top-line decline and re-establish organic revenue growth.HoldingMateriality: High

    MD&A: "results of operations were primarily driven by declines for Atkins and OWYN, which were partially offset by Quest growth.". If household penetration and retail velocities recover, revenue growth and SKU profitability will follow; if retailers continue to downweight these brands, top-line contraction will persist even if cost cuts occur.

    Watch: Major retailers permanently reduce shelf points for Atkins/OWYN and replace them with competing protein/low-carb SKUs or private-label alternatives.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    MD&A: "results of operations were primarily driven by declines for Atkins and OWYN, which were partially offset by Quest growth.".

    Open source ↗
  • Gross margin recovery depends on the company realizing planned productivity and pricing actions—only if those operational levers succeed will operating profitability return rather than margin improvement being a temporary accounting effect.WeakeningMateriality: High

    Gross profit declined from 525,747,000 (FY2025) to 442,363,000 (FY2026), and MD&A states margins were affected by higher input costs and restructuring. Margins determine whether revenue growth leverages into sustainable operating income and free cash flow; failed productivity or lost pricing power would produce recurring margin pressure despite cost programs.

    Watch: Sustained key-ingredient inflation or new tariffs that prevent cost pass-through to consumers.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Gross profit declined from 525,747,000 (FY2025) to 442,363,000 (FY2026), and MD&A states margins were affected by higher input costs and.

    Open source ↗
  • Sustained positive operating cash flow is the enabling capability that allows the company to fund marketing, SKU rationalization and selective acquisitions without equity raises, preserving per-share value during a turnaround.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Operating cash flow has been consistently positive: 181,049,000 (FY2026), 178,457,000 (FY2025), 215,704,000 (FY2024). If operating cash flow remains positive, management can invest in restoring penetration and margins without dilutive financing; if cash flow turns negative, the company would need to cut investment or raise capital, compressing value.

    Watch: A large, cash-funded acquisition or a major inventory/write-off that materially reduces cash balances and OCF flexibility.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Operating cash flow has been consistently positive: 181,049,000 (FY2026), 178,457,000 (FY2025), 215,704,000 (FY2024).

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

Restoring household penetration and retailer shelf velocity for Atkins and OWYN (plus continued Quest growth) is the causal lever that will reverse the FY2026 top-line decline and re-establish organic revenue growth. If household penetration and retail velocities recover, revenue growth and SKU profitability will follow; if retailers continue to downweight these brands, top-line contraction will persist even if cost cuts occur.

Gross margin recovery depends on the company realizing planned productivity and pricing actions—only if those operational levers succeed will operating profitability return rather than margin improvement being a temporary accounting effect. Margins determine whether revenue growth leverages into sustainable operating income and free cash flow; failed productivity or lost pricing power would produce recurring margin pressure despite cost programs.

Sustained positive operating cash flow is the enabling capability that allows the company to fund marketing, SKU rationalization and selective acquisitions without equity raises, preserving per-share value during a turnaround. If operating cash flow remains positive, management can invest in restoring penetration and margins without dilutive financing; if cash flow turns negative, the company would need to cut investment or raise capital, compressing value.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

it restores household penetration and recovers margins through targeted marketing, SKU rationalization and cost productivity.

Evidence assessed Nov 4, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for Simply Good Foods Co

Where the evidence on Simply Good Foods Co disagrees: Mixed on the latest evidence (Nov 4, 2026). Of its 3 thesis points, 1 strengthening, 1 holding and 1 weakening.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Restoring household penetration and retailer shelf velocity for Atkins and OWYN (plus continued Quest growth) is the causal lever that will reverse the FY2026 top-line decline and re-establish organic revenue growth.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Sustained positive operating cash flow is the enabling capability that allows the company to fund marketing, SKU rationalization and selective acquisitions without equity raises, preserving per-share value during a turnaround.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what the evidence questions

  • Gross margin recovery depends on the company realizing planned productivity and pricing actions—only if those operational levers succeed will operating profitability return rather than margin improvement being a temporary accounting effect.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

What has broken in Simply Good Foods Co’s thesis

Each break OptimistFi flagged on Simply Good Foods Co, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for Simply Good Foods Co.

peers+14%-15%-1%12 mo agonow+6 mo
Daily price, then where similar breaks led across the market: the typical -1% path vs comparable companies over six months, inside the middle-half range (+14% to -15%). A base rate, not a forecast.
  • Price target fell below the stockcondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 1,809 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

  • Operating-margin compressioncondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 10,660 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 36% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

Several kinds of break have stacked on Simply Good Foods Co at once. A cluster is a stronger read than any one signal alone.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against comparable companies after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Simply Good Foods Co filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-10-27: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    Simply Good Foods Co filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-09: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Director or principal officer change.

    Simply Good Foods Co filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-04-21: Director or principal officer change. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Major retailers permanently reduce shelf points for Atkins/OWYN and replace them with competing protein/low-carb SKUs or private-label alternatives.
  • Sustained key-ingredient inflation or new tariffs that prevent cost pass-through to consumers.
  • A large, cash-funded acquisition or a major inventory/write-off that materially reduces cash balances and OCF flexibility.

SMPL news

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Financial statements

SMPL income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

SMPL: quick answers

When does Simply Good Foods Co (SMPL) report earnings next?
Simply Good Foods Co's next results are projected for January 7, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 27, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is SMPL's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 9.9M SMPL shares were sold short, 11.4% of its shares outstanding, up 15.8% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.9 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. SMPL short interest history
Have members of Congress traded SMPL?
Reports made public in the last 90 days disclose 2 trades in SMPL by 1 filer: 1 purchase and 1 sale. They are filed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President and senior officials. Every disclosed SMPL trade
Which well-known investors own SMPL?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported SMPL shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Oaktree Capital Management (Howard Marks), 0.2%. Fund portfolios

SMPL in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported SMPL shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Howard MarksOaktree Capital Management0.22%$16.0M+6.6%Q2 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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