SiteOne Landscape Supply

SITENYSEUSD

THESIS ALERT

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$114.25
−$1.91 (−1.64%)Today 1M +33.27%
After hours$114.250.00%

Updated Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET · Regular session · May be delayed

Source valuation snapshot. Not a live recalculation.
Latest filed annual earnings; price snapshot date unavailable. Not forward P/E.
Diluted earnings per share from the latest filed annual.
$116.16
Prior regular-session close from the quote source.
$113.15–$116.21
Regular-session low and high so far today.
494.5K
Regular-session shares traded · Nov 11, 4:00 PM ET.
Feb 10 projected
Projected for 2027-02-10 from the company’s own results filings (SEC 8-K Item 2.02). The company has not confirmed the date.
$82.00–$168.56
52-week trading low and high returned by the quote source.

Understand the Business

Why the Stock Moved

Period-matched expectations history is not yet available. Current metrics are not a substitute for a historical explanation.

The core investment thesis

Own SITE if its pro-focused landscape-supply network keeps taking share while margins recover from the post-boom reset.

SITE price history

Latest price$114.25Today−$1.91 (-1.64%)
SITE +30.89%S&P 500 -2.42%Since first plotted close
4 hours

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Investment thesis

What must happen next

4 MATERIAL PROPOSITIONS
  • Professional contractors continue to value SiteOne’s specialist distribution model enough for the company to take channel share even when landscaping and construction demand is not robust.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    Annual GAAP revenue rose from $4.0145 billion in FY2023 to $4.7048 billion in FY2026. If this holds, SiteOne can grow through cycles; if it breaks, revenue growth becomes dependent on end-market luck or expensive acquisitions.

    Watch: Large home-improvement chains or pro-specialist distributors build landscape-supply programs with comparable local availability and contractor service.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Annual GAAP revenue rose from $4.0145 billion in FY2023 to $4.7048 billion in FY2026.

    Open source ↗
  • SiteOne’s purchasing scale, product breadth and local service retain enough pricing power to protect gross profit even in a competitive distribution market.StrengtheningMateriality: High

    Annual GAAP gross profit rose from $1.4215 billion in FY2023 to $1.6352 billion in FY2026. Gross-profit resilience is the first proof that growth is not being bought with price concessions.

    Watch: Regional distributors or national pro competitors use aggressive pricing to win contractor accounts in SiteOne’s key local markets.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Annual GAAP gross profit rose from $1.4215 billion in FY2023 to $1.6352 billion in FY2026.

    Open source ↗
  • The branch network and acquired businesses can be integrated tightly enough that incremental sales again convert into operating leverage rather than being absorbed by labor, freight, rent and acquisition integration costs.HoldingMateriality: Medium

    Annual GAAP operating income improved to $238.1 million in FY2026 from $192.3 million in FY2025. This is the difference between SiteOne being a compounder and being merely a bigger distributor with diluted returns.

    Watch: Acquired branches require more local overhead and fail to adopt SiteOne’s purchasing, pricing and inventory systems.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Annual GAAP operating income improved to $238.1 million in FY2026 from $192.3 million in FY2025.

    Open source ↗
  • The distributor model continues to generate enough operating cash through working-capital cycles to fund consolidation and reinvestment without pushing the balance sheet into a value-destructive position.StrengtheningMateriality: Medium

    Annual GAAP operating cash flow was positive in each year shown: $217.2 million in FY2023, $297.5 million in FY2024, $283.4 million in FY2025 and $300.5 million in FY2026. Cash conversion determines whether the roll-up creates per-share value or simply increases financial risk.

    Watch: Acquisition multiples rise or integration returns fall, causing SiteOne to pay more for less incremental profit.

    Supporting sources

    Source notes are factual paraphrases; read the original disclosures below.

    Annual GAAP operating cash flow was positive in each year shown: $217.2 million in FY2023, $297.5 million in FY2024, $283.4.

    Open source ↗
Full investment case & evidence

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Original research

Professional contractors continue to value SiteOne’s specialist distribution model enough for the company to take channel share even when landscaping and construction demand is not robust. If this holds, SiteOne can grow through cycles; if it breaks, revenue growth becomes dependent on end-market luck or expensive acquisitions.

SiteOne’s purchasing scale, product breadth and local service retain enough pricing power to protect gross profit even in a competitive distribution market. Gross-profit resilience is the first proof that growth is not being bought with price concessions.

The branch network and acquired businesses can be integrated tightly enough that incremental sales again convert into operating leverage rather than being absorbed by labor, freight, rent and acquisition integration costs. This is the difference between SiteOne being a compounder and being merely a bigger distributor with diluted returns.

The distributor model continues to generate enough operating cash through working-capital cycles to fund consolidation and reinvestment without pushing the balance sheet into a value-destructive position. Cash conversion determines whether the roll-up creates per-share value or simply increases financial risk.

All standing thesis claims
Original report summary

its pro-focused landscape-supply network keeps taking share while margins recover from the post-boom reset.

Evidence assessed Oct 12, 2026. Expand each conclusion for its evidence and what would change it. Thesis evidence—not a buy or sell recommendation.

Bull case and bear case

Bull case and bear case for SiteOne Landscape Supply

Where the evidence on SiteOne Landscape Supply stands: Holding on the latest evidence (Oct 12, 2026). Of its 4 thesis points, 3 strengthening and 1 holding.

Bull case: what the evidence supports

  • Professional contractors continue to value SiteOne’s specialist distribution model enough for the company to take channel share even when landscaping and construction demand is not robust.

    sec.gov ↗

  • SiteOne’s purchasing scale, product breadth and local service retain enough pricing power to protect gross profit even in a competitive distribution market.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The branch network and acquired businesses can be integrated tightly enough that incremental sales again convert into operating leverage rather than being absorbed by labor, freight, rent and acquisition integration costs.

    sec.gov ↗

  • The distributor model continues to generate enough operating cash through working-capital cycles to fund consolidation and reinvestment without pushing the balance sheet into a value-destructive position.

    sec.gov ↗

Bear case: what would count against it

  • Large home-improvement chains or pro-specialist distributors build landscape-supply programs with comparable local availability and contractor service.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Regional distributors or national pro competitors use aggressive pricing to win contractor accounts in SiteOne’s key local markets.

    sec.gov ↗

  • Acquired branches require more local overhead and fail to adopt SiteOne’s purchasing, pricing and inventory systems.

    sec.gov ↗

Thesis-Break Engine

What has broken in SiteOne Landscape Supply’s thesis

Each break OptimistFi flagged on SiteOne Landscape Supply, dated — with what has historically followed the same kind of break across the market, not a forecast for SiteOne Landscape Supply.

peers+14%-15%-1%12 mo agonow+6 mo
Daily price, then where similar breaks led across the market: the typical -1% path vs comparable companies over six months, inside the middle-half range (+14% to -15%). A base rate, not a forecast.
  • Price target fell below the stockcondition set before this filing

    Across all companies, this kind of break has happened 1,809 times before. Those stocks trailed comparable companies by a median of 1% over the next six months, and 33% of them trailed it by 10 points or more.

How the Thesis-Break Engine works →Historical outcomes are measured against comparable companies after past breaks of the same kind, across all companies. Not a prediction.

MARKET + FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

The numbers behind the thesis

Sourced from filings and market data

What Changed

  1. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    SiteOne Landscape Supply filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-07-29: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  2. Mixed
    Reported results of operations (earnings release).

    SiteOne Landscape Supply filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-04-29: Reported results of operations (earnings release). It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

  3. Mixed
    Entered a material definitive agreement.

    SiteOne Landscape Supply filed an SEC 8-K on 2026-04-27: Entered a material definitive agreement. It is a dated development that tests the current thesis.

Risks / falsifiers

What could break the thesis

  • Large home-improvement chains or pro-specialist distributors build landscape-supply programs with comparable local availability and contractor service.
  • Regional distributors or national pro competitors use aggressive pricing to win contractor accounts in SiteOne’s key local markets.
  • Acquired branches require more local overhead and fail to adopt SiteOne’s purchasing, pricing and inventory systems.
  • Acquisition multiples rise or integration returns fall, causing SiteOne to pay more for less incremental profit.

SITE news

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Financial statements

SITE income statement

Annual filed results · USD · Oldest to newest. Margins are calculated from the reported figures.

SITE: quick answers

When does SiteOne Landscape Supply (SITE) report earnings next?
SiteOne Landscape Supply's next results are projected for February 10, 2027, from the dates of its own results filings with the SEC. The company has not confirmed the date. It last reported on October 28, 2026. Earnings calendar
What is SITE's short interest?
As of October 30, 2026, 3.5M SITE shares were sold short, 8.21% of its shares outstanding, down 16.5% from the count before. At the stock's average daily volume that is 3.6 days to cover. FINRA publishes the count twice a month. SITE short interest history
Have members of Congress traded SITE?
22 trades in SITE have been disclosed under the STOCK Act by members of Congress, the President or senior officials, none in reports made public in the last 90 days. Every disclosed SITE trade
Which well-known investors own SITE?
1 of the 37 well-known funds tracked here reported SITE shares in their latest 13F filing. By share of the fund's portfolio: Markel Group (Tom Gayner), 0.0%. Fund portfolios

SITE in well-known investors’ portfolios

1 of 37 funds reported SITE shares in their latest 13F filing. A 13F shows quarter-end positions and arrives up to 45 days later.

FundOf its portfolioValueChangeQuarter
Tom GaynerMarkel Group0.01%$719KNewQ3 2026

Every fund’s portfolio

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